Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, we explore how Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s impending exit from the presidential race could give Donald Trump a boost. Plus, national political reporter Ben Kamisar breaks down how Kamala Harris opened the fundraising floodgates.
Programming note: Stay tuned for a special edition of the From the Politics Desk newsletter each night after the Democratic National Convention this week, bringing you all the latest news and analysis from our team in Chicago.
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How Harris had supercharged Democratic fundraising
By Ben Kamisar
The latest campaign finance reports underscore just how much the Joe Biden-to-Kamala Harris switcheroo has supercharged Democratic enthusiasm and fundraising.
The party’s presidential campaign reported raising an eye-popping $204 million in July. Biden was the candidate at the top of the ticket until July 21, when he dropped out and backed his running mate. By comparison, Donald Trump’s campaign raised $47.5 million in July.
A dive into digital fundraising numbers from ActBlue — a platform that effectively serves as the Democratic credit-card processor for online donations — shows how Harris opened the floodgates.
Across the first 20 days of July, with Biden facing a steady drumbeat of Democratic calls to exit the race in the wake of his shaky debate performance, his campaign raised about $30 million through ActBlue, an average of about $1.5 million per day.
But from when he ended his candidacy through the end of the month, Harris raised more than $183 million — including $39.5 million the day Biden dropped out and almost $43 million the following day — an average of about $16.7 million per day.
The trend is clear. While the campaign never hit $3 million in daily ActBlue fundraising in Biden’s final 20 days as a candidate, it never brought in less than $7 million daily in the final 11 days of July with Harris as the Democratic standard-bearer.
What to expect on Night 3 of the Democratic convention
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will deliver tonight’s headlining address, presenting his biggest opportunity since Harris selected him as a running mate to introduce himself to the nation.
Other notable speakers include: Former President Bill Clinton; former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi; Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro; Maryland Gov. Wes Moore; House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries; and Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, and Chris Murphy of Connecticut.
Follow along with tonight’s speeches on our live blog →
RFK Jr. is planning to drop out of the 2024 presidential race and endorse Trump
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. intends to end his independent presidential campaign and endorse Trump, according to two sources familiar with the plans, Vaughn Hillyard, Dasha Burns, Katherine Koretski and Alec Hernández report.
The sources cautioned that talks are ongoing, but there will be clarity by the end of the week. One of the sources said the campaigns are working toward a joint appearance.
The decision to drop out will end the most prominent third-party candidacy in the 2024 race. Kennedy announced Wednesday that he will give a campaign speech addressing “his path forward,” days after his running mate said the campaign faced a choice about staying in the 2024 election or dropping out to back Trump.
Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, told NBC News in an interview Wednesday that “there’s been a lot of communication back and forth” between Kennedy and his campaign. Vance also said Trump wouldn’t promise a Cabinet position for Kennedy’s endorsement.
The potential fallout: As Mark Murray notes, polls show that a Kennedy withdrawal would likely help Trump more than it hurts him.
National NBC News polling finds that Republicans like Kennedy more than Democrats do. In January, Kennedy held net-positive ratings from Republicans (+18) and independents (+4), while Democrats viewed him mostly negatively (-25).
The spread has only gotten starker since then. Fast-forward to July’s NBC News poll — conducted before Biden’s exit — when Kennedy was in positive territory with only Republican voters (+11), while he was negative among independents (-18) and Democrats (-38).
The July poll also shows that in a multicandidate field, Trump kept 87% of the voters who backed him in a head-to-head contest with Biden, while 10% of his voters went to Kennedy, 1% went to Jill Stein and 1% went to Cornel West.
By contrast, Biden kept 85% of his two-way support, while 6% went to Kennedy, 3% to Stein, 2% to Chase Oliver and 1% to West.
And since Biden’s departure from the race, the total share of voters supporting Kennedy and third-party candidates in general has declined, according to national and battleground polls. More voters have been choosing Harris or Trump instead.
While the potential share of Kennedy backers is smaller than it used to be, those voters could still be decisive in a close election.
🗞️ Today’s top stories
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🗓️ 60 years later: Harris’ speech on Thursday will mark the 60th anniversary of civil rights activist Fannie Lou Hamer’s Democratic National Convention address, where she admonished her party for refusing to support voting rights for Black Americans and for not seating her integrated delegation. Read more →
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🪧 Outside the arena: Protests outside the Democratic convention have far outnumbered the protests outside of last month’s Republican confab, thanks to Democrats’ divide over the war in Gaza. Read more →
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💲 Price is right: Trump has slammed Harris’ proposal to ban price-gouging, but 37 states and D.C. already have proposals aimed at preventing companies from quickly raising prices on certain goods and services. Read more →
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⭐ Fading star? Gov. Ron DeSantis took a political hit during Florida’s primaries on Tuesday, when several of the candidates he endorsed for school board races lost. Read more →
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🗳️ Down the ballot: With the key Senate matchups now officially set, both parties are gearing up for a closely fought battle for control of the chamber. Read more →
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💸 A steep fine: A telecom company has agreed to pay a $1 million fine for its role in the deepfake robocall that impersonated Biden’s voice ahead of the New Hampshire Democratic primary. Read more →
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📰 In memoriam: LongtimeRep. Bill Pascrell, D-N.J., died Wednesday at the age of 87. Read more →
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
