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In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar breaks down our latest NBC News Deciders Focus Group series with Nikki Haley’s primary voters. Plus, senior national political reporter Jonathan Allen .
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Haley voters confront a new choice with the same skepticism
By Ben Kamisar
Over little more than a week, former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, President Joe Biden decided not to seek another term and Vice President Kamala Harris became the de facto Democratic nominee.
And yet, a new focus group of a key set of potential swing voters — supporters of Nikki Haley in the 2024 GOP primaries — illustrates just how hardened views of the election are.
Those who applauded Trump for adopting a conciliatory tone in the immediate aftermath of the July 13 shooting now feel that he has reverted to being the candidate they previously opposed. Those who said they would vote for the Democratic presidential nominee in the fall were already on board with the party before Biden’s announcement. And those who were on the fence regarding the general election still feel like they are stuck there.
The conversations — as part of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group series, produced in collaboration with Engagious, Syracuse University and Sago — show that this group of voters, who cast ballots against Trump’s Republican coronation earlier this year, are by and large unhappy with their choices in the fall.
Three participants plan to vote for Democrats again, just like they did in 2020. One currently plans not to vote. The remaining 10 focus group participants evenly split their votes between Trump and third-party candidates, either reluctantly choosing the former president because of their broader support for GOP policies or choosing a protest vote to signal their frustration with the direction of the party.
“It may depend on where the tears fall on the ballot to determine who I cast my vote for,” said Audra B., a 53-year-old from Arizona, speaking about the choice between Trump and Harris. “I don’t like either one of them, but I’m also not going to not have my chance to vote. There are a lot of women who came before me to make sure I get this opportunity, and I don’t want to squander that.”
After eyeing both major party candidates and the third-party options, Audra said she’s currently planning to back Libertarian Chase Oliver after voting for Trump in 2020.
Read more from our focus group →
Shapiro gets a dual boost in the veepstakes
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s vice presidential prospects are receiving a boost from expected — and unexpected — places.
Emma Barnett and Brennan Leach report Shapiro’s in-state allies are making an especially public and vocal push to elevate their governor as Harris kicks off her search. The Philadelphia Democratic Party, for instance, explicitly endorsed a Harris-Shapiro ticket.
Former Rep. Bob Brady, the chair of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, said that with Shapiro on board, Harris would win Pennsylvania, a critical swing state.
“I don’t guarantee anything, but I will guarantee that,” said Brady. “No question about it. We’re so enthused, so riled up.”
Meanwhile, Republicans see Shapiro as the VP contender most likely to offer Harris a boost and make their efforts trickier, Allan Smith, Henry J. Gomez and Katherine Doyle report.
These Republicans say that Shapiro could help broaden Harris’ appeal with independent voters and traditional Democrats who are drifting away from the party, without completely alienating Republicans
“I just think Shapiro is super strong,” one Trump ally said. “And Republicans should be concerned about it. If I were her, that would be the pick.”
The most important factor in Harris’ VP search
By Jonathan Allen
Presidential campaigns like to sound noble about choosing a running mate. They talk about criteria like who is most fit to run the country, who would be a good governing partner and who can be plucked from their job without costing the party a Senate seat or a governorship.
But there’s only one factor that will matter as Harris makes her pick — especially if, as Democrats keep telling us, democracy itself is on the ballot: who is most likely to help her win.
Sure, that can be framed in the reverse — which contender does the least harm — and it often is. And part of that analysis must include whether voters see the would-be VP as ready to lead.
But make no mistake: This is a decision about cold, hard politics. Harris just watched her party force Biden off the ballot because of the threat of losing. She can be dead certain Democrats have the stomach for just about anything when it comes to beating Trump.
What they won’t stand for is picking the best governing partner, someone she has a personal relationship with, a senator from a state with a Democratic governor or a governor from a state with a Democratic lieutenant governor if that person costs them the White House.
In the Trump era, voters in both parties have become far more comfortable with, and accustomed to, raw politics. They expect it — and in some cases demand it.
In the end, there’s little evidence that the No. 2 spot on the ballot sways many votes. But the pick can send important signals to the electorate about the presidential nominee’s judgment, values and decision-making process.
Harris has plenty of credible options. What she doesn’t have is the luxury to sacrifice winning for anything else — for example, one more Democratic Senate seat, or a weekly lunch companion that she likes.
Democrats are understandably ecstatic about having a new champion with big energy who could diversify the ranks of the American presidency. They will soon realize again that Trump is a tough foe, that the economy is unchanged by the switcheroo on the ballot, and that they can’t afford to focus on anything but winning.
More on Harris’ record:
More on Harris’ coalition:
🗞️ Today’s top stories
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👀 Netanyahu in D.C.: Biden and Harris met separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Thursday as the administration pushes for a cease-fire agreement in Gaza. Meanwhile, the pro-Palestinian protests that erupted during Netanyahu’s address to Congress drew condemnation from Harris, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and others. Read more →
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⬅️ Pushing back: Doug Emhoff’s daughter and ex-wife criticized JD Vance after comments re-emerged of him referring to Harris as childless. Read more →
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📈 On the rise: The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, a much faster rate than expected. As The New York Times writes, the economy could be in quite a solid position for whoever takes over as president in 2025. Read more →
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🚫 Disinfo watch: Elon Musk’s X app boosted wild conspiracy theories this week that Biden was dead or dying. Read more →
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🧔 Beard politics: A sitting president or vice president hasn’t sported facial hair in more than a century, Politico notes. Is Vance on the cutting edge of a new trend on politics or an aberration? Read more →
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Follow along with the latest 2024 election developments on our live blog →
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
