During his term, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has transformed Japan’s defense posture amid growing threats from China, Russia and North Korea.
After nearly three years in power, however, Kishida is set to leave office, having announced earlier this month that he would not run in September’s election to lead his ruling Liberal Democratic Party, amid low approval ratings and corruption allegations within the LDP.
At question is whether his successor will build on that legacy or take Japan in a new direction. Regardless, Kishida said he would support the new leader.
War anniversary
Kishida marked the 79th anniversary of his country’s defeat in World War II on Thursday, leading a solemn ceremony in Tokyo alongside Japanese Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako.
Speaking to delegates in what will likely be one of his last major public events, Kishida reiterated Japan’s long-held position on its devastating 1945 defeat.
“We must never again repeat the devastation of war. Although 79 years have now passed, no matter how time flows, we will remain committed to this resolute pledge, passing it down across generations,” Kishida said.
But his speech also reflected Japan’s changing role on the global stage.
“Japan will do its utmost to resolve the various challenges facing the world as it works to maintain and strengthen the free and open international order based on the rule of law while placing human dignity at the very center. In this way, we will carve out the future of our nation,” he added.
Global challenges
Japan lies at the intersection of several of those global challenges, and Kishida’s successor will likely continue his approach to defense and security, said Tomohiko Taniguchi, an adviser to the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and now a special adviser at Fujitsu Future Studies Center.
“The scope of options for Japan is indeed narrow because of the troubling neighborhood that Japan finds itself in,” Taniguchi told VOA.
“Russia, North Korea and China — three of the nuclear-powered [armed] nations — none of which has exercised anything akin to open democracy. And all three of those countries are all fostering hostility and hate, intentionally and institutionally, towards Japan and the U.S.-Japan alliance,” he said.
Ukraine ties
Shortly after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Kishida warned that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,” a statement that appeared to resonate with many regional allies.
The Japanese leader forged close ties with Kyiv, visiting the town of Bucha in 2023, where Russian troops are alleged to have committed war crimes, including mass killings and rape. Moscow denies the charges, despite widespread evidence.
Kishida then invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to attend the 2023 G7 summit in Hiroshima.
Under Kishida’s leadership, Japanese lawmakers approved a doubling of defense spending by 2027. He forged closer alliances with regional allies, and in July, successfully negotiated an upgrade of the United States’ military command in Japan.
South Korea
Over the past two years, Japan’s Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol overcame historical grievances to forge a close alliance.
In a joint statement issued Sunday, the United States, Japan and South Korea reaffirmed their pledge made a year ago at a historic trilateral summit at Camp David.
“We stand by our commitment to consult on regional challenges, provocations and threats affecting our collective interests and security,” the statement said.
But uncertainties remain, said analyst Taniguchi.
“There is no assurance whatsoever that the improved South Korea-Japan relationship is going to continue as it is. President Yoon has passed the midpoint of his term. The rest of his term is going to be increasingly a lame-duck administration. The opposition parties are sniffing blood already — and the easiest target for the opposition party is to say that the incumbent administration is too weak vis-a-vis Japan,” Taniguchi told VOA.
Likely successor?
Kishida has no obvious successor. Several LDP lawmakers, including numerous government ministers, are expected to put themselves forward for the Sept. 27 vote for the party presidency.
“There are some (candidates) who have shown uneasiness… as if Japan was a puppet of the Big Brother of the United States,” Taniguchi said.
Japan’s next prime minister will also have to win over the Japanese public and rebuild trust that has been eroded by a recent scandal over political funds.
“The public supports in principle are boosting Japan’s defenses and the defense budget hikes, but they are actually unwilling to pay higher personal taxes in order to do so,” said Yee Kuang Heng, a professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo.
He added that the Japanese public now largely accepts the need for a stronger defense capability, “but nevertheless remains quite cautious about a more aggressive military posture.”
Global reaction
The United States’ ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, wrote on X that Kishida had “helped build a latticework of security alliances and partnerships across the Indo-Pacific region that will stand the test of time.”
Beijing, meanwhile, said it would work to build a constructive and stable China-Japan relationship with Kishida’s successor.
The next prime minister will require staying power, Taniguchi said, “because the next five, six or seven years is going to be crucial for this ongoing long game between China and Japan. And nothing can be achievable for a prime minister who stays in office only for one or two years.”
He added, “So, the next prime minister has got to come up with a good plan with which he or she could stay in office, manage difficult tasks, strengthen Japan’s alliance networks, and beef up Japan’s defense spending.”
