Inside Republicans’ anxiety over Trump

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown. Today let’s discuss:

• Republicans’ frustration with the Trump campaign

• Conservative superstar lawyer Eugene Scalia

• Petrol prices and energy sector angst

Some Republicans, including strategists and donors, are growing irritated with how Donald Trump is approaching his campaign to win back the White House [free to read].

They’re not panicking about Trump’s election prospects — Republican strategist John Feehery told me Kamala Harris would have to be up 7 percentage points in national polls for real fright to set in — but they’re anxious about his inability to find effective attack lines. They’re also unamused by what they see as overly fawning media coverage of Harris’s campaign.

As Republican strategist Kevin Madden told me:

The dominant mood among Republicans, based on the last month, has been one of frustration . . . her campaign has been allowed to coast for a month and get a free pass. The best time to define her was right out of the gate.

Trump has signalled he’s going to get back on offence and try to do more to define Harris, so we’ll see if Republicans start to execute a more co-ordinated campaign and get some momentum back.

Feehery added that Republicans are “nervous” as they face the reality that it will be a “very tough” and “very close” race while their candidate struggles to stay disciplined on messaging.

The election is no longer the slam dunk Trump and his party were anticipating when they were running against Joe Biden. Harris is up 3.7 percentage points nationally, according to the FT’s polling average. Trump, however, had a 3.2 percentage point lead over Biden before he dropped out, according to FiveThirtyEight.

“If [Trump] continues down this path, he’ll lose,” said Eric Levine, a New York bankruptcy lawyer and a prominent donor to Senate Republicans. “The only way you’re going to get those voters who are going to Harris . . . is to change strategy”.

But some party donors and operatives close to Trump are still upbeat. They’re betting that the race will shift back the former president’s way as Harris faces scrutiny on policy issues such as the economy and immigration — especially as the September 10 debate nears.

“We really haven’t had a conversation about the direction of the country. We’ve had a conversation about the reset of the Democratic party. And Harris’s support is nowhere near the level of Biden support in 2020,” said former Trump-aide-turned-lobbyist Bryan Lanza.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• Harris, alongside running mate Tim Walz, will sit for her first interview since becoming the Democratic candidate. It airs at 9pm Eastern time. (CNN) 

• China is struggling to get meetings with members of Trump’s camp. [Free to read] 

• Harris will end a two-day campaign swing through Georgia today as she tries to keep the battleground state in play. (The Washington Post)

• US prosecutors have filed a revised criminal indictment against Trump in the federal 2020 election interference case. 

• Trump has appointed fringe ex-Democrats Robert F Kennedy Jr and Tulsi Gabbard as honorary co-chairs of his presidential transition team.

Behind the scenes

Conservative law has an anti-regulatory superstar with a familiar name: Scalia.

Eugene Scalia, son of former US Supreme Court justice Antonin Scalia, has been on a successful crusade to foil the Biden administration’s efforts to rein in big business.

In recent months, his legal arguments have dented climate disclosure rules, regulations for private funds and the Federal Trade Commission’s ban on non-compete agreements, which can make it tricky for people to switch jobs.

Scalia told the FT’s Stefania Palma and Brooke Masters:

I love the principles and ideas that [this] country was founded on, and those include a government that is respectful of liberty. When government intrudes on rights, treats people unfairly and claims power the people never gave it, I find it rewarding to call that out.

Challenging that sort of government behaviour is a way of furthering American values.

Trump said he wants to resume the light-touch regulation that featured in his first term in the White House. On the Democratic side, it’s anyone’s guess whether Harris will follow in Biden’s footsteps with aggressive policies on financial regulation and competition.

But as Brooke argues, Harris would be “squeezed by aggressive industry litigation and hostile judges”. Scalia would certainly fan those flames.

Datapoint

Petrol prices — a critical political issue for incumbent candidates — are going Harris’s way.

With less than 10 weeks to go until election day, drivers are paying about $3.35 per gallon at the pump, according to the American Automobile Association.

That’s still higher than when Biden took office and the average during Trump’s presidency, but, as the FT’s Myles McCormick has pointed out, prices are at their lowest level since March and they look like they’ll keep going down. (FT Premium subscribers can click here to sign up for our Energy Source newsletter.)

The sector itself, however, is likely getting antsy about Harris’s plans.

US oil and gas companies will want Harris to put forth her energy and climate policies amid worries that she’ll further restrict fossil fuel development.

Why has she stayed quiet on energy and climate so far?

“It looks like the Harris campaign has concluded that it’s safer to avoid antagonising producers or climate activists by skirting these issues entirely,” Kevin Book, managing director of Clearview Energy Partners, told the FT’s Jamie Smyth.

While Harris needs the support of young voters in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, she doesn’t want to risk alienating its oil and gas producers, which have a powerful lobby.

Viewpoints

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