In the decades since the second world war, while nearly every other aspect of commercial aviation has been transformed, the basic aircraft design of a tube with wings has remained stubbornly unchanged.
But, by the end of the decade, a radically different shaped plane could be taking to the skies above California.
US start-up JetZero and its backers hope the new aircraft will be the future of commercial aviation and offer a way to slash carbon emissions. The eye-catching design — which borrows from the “blended wing” appearance of stealth bombers — has attracted interest from airlines on both sides of the Atlantic.
JetZero’s design is one of multiple technologies being developed to try to help airlines reach the industry’s goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The net zero target is based on the mass take-up of new and cleaner sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). But aerospace companies are also working on electric batteries and hydrogen-powered aircraft to try to cut emissions.
The stakes are high, with tighter regulation and the looming threat of taxes on flying. Aviation is currently responsible for 2 per cent to 3 per cent of global CO₂ emissions, but that figure is expected to rise as other industries cut their emissions more quickly.
This week, global airline lobby group Iata estimated that the average annual investment in SAFs and other technology that would be required to reach net zero would be $128bn a year. It insisted this was “feasible”, but only with more government support.
A plane flying purely on SAF can save up to 70 per cent of the emissions produced from conventional fuel. The rub is that current SAF production is about 1.5mn tonnes a year, while Iata estimates that meaningful progress towards the 2050 emissions target would require 24mn tonnes by 2030, and 500mn by 2050.
Tom O’Leary, chief executive and co-founder of JetZero, said the aviation industry recognised the scale of the challenge. “[The industry] is saying we must take action or we run the risk of being regulated into a corner.”
Airlines wanted to continue to expand at their current rate but also achieve net zero emissions by 2050 using SAFs, he added. “Those two things are incompatible.”
JetZero’s blended wing design would help resolve that conundrum, he said. The company plans to start flights with a one-eighth size demonstrator within the next three years and to have a full-size plane flying as soon as 2030.
“[Industry aspirations] are not incompatible if all planes in 2050 coming off the line are blended wing,” O’Leary said. “Then absolutely there is hope.”
The two companies that produce most of the world’s commercial aircraft — Europe’s Airbus and Boeing in the US — have both experimented with blended wings. Airbus unveiled a prototype called Maveric four years ago. But JetZero believes it can move faster than these two industry heavyweights.
Founded in 2021 by a group that includes former aerospace executives, JetZero last year won a $235mn contract from the US Air Force to develop a demonstrator aircraft. Alaska Airlines is among its investors — the investment includes options for future aircraft orders. Earlier this month, it agreed a partnership with easyJet.
JetZero’s design combines wings and fuselage in a manner similar to the US Air Force’s B-2 bomber. This design, according to the company, will allow its aircraft to use 50 per cent less fuel than a comparable conventional design but with existing engine technology. It should also produce 50 per cent fewer emissions.
Its planned passenger capacity — of 200 to 250 passengers — would address the size gap between single-aisle aircraft, such as Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’s A320 families, and both manufacturers’ larger, twin-aisle models.
Although some industry analysts are sceptical about JetZero’s timetable, its promise of radically lower fuel consumption by 2030 is tantalising for airlines. Production of SAFs has not increased as fast as hoped. Airbus and Boeing are delivering new, more efficient aircraft more slowly than anticipated.
This summer, Air New Zealand became the first major airline to abandon a 2030 emissions reduction target, and environmental campaigners worry that the industry is already off track in pursuit of net zero.
Research by consultancy Bain shows that despite current decarbonisation measures, there will be a net 3.4 per cent increase in the airline industry’s global CO₂ emissions by 2030 compared with 2019 levels. It forecasts that growth in flying will offset increased use of SAFs and more efficient planes.
Marie Owens Thomsen, head of sustainability at Iata, said the industry had certainly not “roared out of the starting blocks” towards net zero. The 2050 target was set by Iata in 2021.
The big manufacturers insist they are making progress. Both Airbus and Boeing have promised that their aircraft will be able to fly on 100 per cent SAF by 2030 — existing planes can use up to 50 per cent SAF alongside conventional jet fuel.
Glenn Llewellyn, vice-president of zero emissions technology at Airbus, said that aircraft manufacturers and engine makers were working hard to make sure that technology was “never a bottleneck” in the uptake of low- carbon fuels such as SAF.
He pointed out that the current maximum SAF mix was seldom used because so little sustainable fuel was being manufactured.
The launch of a new generation of single-aisle aircraft from Airbus and Boeing, expected in the middle of next decade, should contribute too.
New generations of aircraft have typically used between 15 per cent and 25 per cent less fuel than their predecessors, mainly thanks to more efficient engines. Changes to wing designs and lighter materials can also help.
In the longer term, Airbus is hoping to develop a hydrogen-powered aircraft by 2035. It is investing “hundreds of millions of euros” in the programme, which has four different aircraft concepts, including a blended-wing body. It is also working on two options for propulsion: liquid hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells.
Last year, it successfully tested a hydrogen fuel cell at the level of power its engineers believe will be needed for a commercial airliner. One of its designs is a 100-seat aircraft that would use six hydrogen fuel cell-powered engines.
However, Llewellyn said one concern was whether the hydrogen supply “ecosystem” would be sufficiently developed to meet the company’s 2035 goal.
“The question is . . . will there be enough decarbonised hydrogen available in the 2035 timeframe to support a commercialisation of the aircraft?”
In the short term, the decarbonisation focus remains SAFs, and the industry is lobbying policymakers for support to increase production.
Robert Thomson, a partner at consultancy Roland Berger, said about 50 per cent of airline CO₂ emissions were generated by big aircraft flying long haul.
“In a 2050 timescale, SAF is likely to be the only solution to decarbonising this form of transport,” he said.
Airlines remain convinced their net zero target is achievable, with the right support from governments, fuel companies and manufacturers.
Asked whether the sector was on track to meet its goal, Owens Thomsen said: “I think we can say yes. But it is somewhat of a guess, because the distance from where we are today is so great.”
