Satellite images suggest that traffic on the bridge has dropped significantly since the Ukrainian attack last year, implying that Moscow may be planning to launch an assault on Ukraine using alternative land routes.
Moscow appears to have pivoted to using land routes in occupied eastern Ukraine to supply troops for its army, rather than continuing to use the Crimean Bridge, according to new satellite images.
Captured by US space tech company Maxar and analysed by Ukrainian intelligence agency Molfar, the images show that the bridge has very little traffic and may no longer be an effective target for Ukrainian forces since its last attack there in July 2023.
The pictures, shared with The Cube, suggest that no freight trains carrying military equipment used the crossing between February and April 2024.
A single freight train of about 55 cars carrying fuel tanks did however pass over the bridge in February.
The data seems to suggest that Russia is pooling its resources elsewhere.
From May 2023 to March 2024, around 1,097 freight cars were spotted at Taman Station in Russia’s Rostov region, which borders Donetsk and Luhansk in occupied Ukraine, according to Molfar’s analysis.
Yet 203 freight cars were known to have crossed the Crimean Bridge in that same period.
“This may indicate a reluctance on Russia’s part to transport military cargo via the bridge after previous attacks and the use of alternative routes,” Molfar said.
The agency puts the sharp reduction in crossings down to Ukraine’s attack on the bridge in July 2023 specifically.
Kyiv launched sea drones which struck its sea sport, damaging both the roadway and railway section of the bridge in the explosion.
Traffic has since resumed, but with restrictions: the head of Ukraine’s security service, Vasyl Maliuk, said that up to 46 trains carrying weapons used to cross daily, but now it’s down to five trains carrying passengers and general goods.
Moscow’s hesitance to use the bridge corresponds with an uptick in freight traffic between Rostov and Ukraine’s occupied regions, according to Molfar.
It said that Russia is building new railway lines to connect Melitopol, Berdyansk and Mariupol with Crimea and Russia.
It’s possible that these new routes are being prepared for a Russian offensive against Ukraine at some point in 2024, Molfar added.
Failing that, Russian forces could use alternatives to the Crimean Bridge, including motorways.
“The Russians themselves report high-quality road conditions on the route through the occupied territories to Crimea,” Molfar said.
This land route, which goes through the occupied territories from the Rostov region to Crimea, accounts for up to half of Moscow’s cargo transport in the area.
The Crimean peninsula was occupied and later annexed by Russia in 2014. Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine eight years later.
ADVERTISEMENTPresident Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly assured that Ukrainian forces intend to liberate Crimea in their counteroffensive against Russia, along with the occupied areas in the east of the country that Russia has effectively controlled since 2022.
