Since the start of Israel’s war with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza in October 2023, President Joe Biden has warned the U.S. ally against widening the conflict with Tehran’s other proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, and with Iran itself.
Many fear that moment has come.
In the past 10 days, Israel has unleashed an air campaign on Lebanon, striking over 3,600 Hezbollah-linked targets, according to Israel Defense Forces statements. On Tuesday, Israel launched what it called a limited ground offensive into southern Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also vowed retaliation for Tehran’s launching of 180 missiles toward Israel on Tuesday, an attack that damaged a school in the Israeli city of Hod Hasharon and killed at least one person in the West Bank.
Meanwhile, in Damascus, Syrian state media said that three civilians had been killed in Israeli strikes Tuesday. More strikes were reported in the Syrian capital on Wednesday.
Biden said his administration was giving Israel “advice” and urging it to respond proportionally. He told reporters Wednesday that he had discussed the matter with leaders of the Group of Seven and that he might speak with Netanyahu “relatively soon.”
“We’ll be discussing with the Israelis what they’re going to do, but they — every — all seven of us [G7 leaders] agree that they have a right to respond, but they should respond in proportion,” he told reporters.
Netanyahu has threatened retaliation beyond Iran, to countries where Tehran’s proxies are located.
“We fight the axis of evil everywhere,” he said Tuesday. “This is true for Judea and Samaria [West Bank]. It is true for Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria. And it is also true for Iran.”
Iran has for years used its proxies — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen — to attack Israel. It launched its first direct attack with a barrage of missiles and drones on Israeli soil in April, two weeks after Israel’s deadly strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria.
At that time, Israel’s retaliatory attack against Tehran was measured, and as many analysts point out, calibrated to stop the escalation. They predict Israel will respond more strongly this time, possibly targeting Iranian nuclear or oil facilities.
When asked, Biden said he would not support any Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. He said more G7 sanctions would be imposed on Tehran.
Tehran said its barrage of missiles Tuesday was in retaliation for Israel’s recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and an Iranian military commander.
Fears US will be dragged into war
Washington fears further escalation could drag the United States directly into war should Iran retaliate again against Israel, especially if it hits American interests.
“That could mean attacking oil-producing facilities in Saudi Arabia,” said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator for the Middle East who is now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “That could mean empowering pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria to attack American forces.”
“And yes, it could provide an avenue, a pathway, for the United States to get into this war,” he told VOA.
With the largest military presence in the region compared with other external actors, the U.S. is already indirectly involved. Two U.S. Navy destroyers deployed to the eastern Mediterranean, the USS Bulkeley and USS Cole, joined Israeli air defense units Tuesday in firing about a dozen interceptors to shoot down inbound Iranian missiles, said Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei blamed the U.S. and European countries for the wars in the Middle East.
“If they rid the region of their presence, no doubt these conflicts, wars and clashes will completely go away,” he said.
The White House has not responded to VOA’s requests for comment on Khamenei’s remarks.
Containing the conflict
It is unclear whether Biden will use offensive capabilities to strike Iran directly. What’s clear is that despite calls for a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon, Washington has not succeeded in containing the conflict.
“The key drivers of events in the Middle East today are the players that are engaged in these combat operations,” said Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “It’s Israel, it’s Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and it’s Iran and its networks across the region, including the Houthis in Yemen.”
Washington has been largely operating “as a bystander,” trying to prevent the worst outcomes, Katulis said. The administration’s approach has been “largely reactive, tactical crisis management,” he added.
Biden has so far refused to condition military aid to Israel — his biggest leverage in pressuring the country to agree to a cease-fire. He and others in his administration frequently underscore that they support Israel’s right to defend itself.
It’s “almost inconceivable now” that Biden would restrict military assistance to Israel, Miller said. In any case, he said, U.S. pressure is unlikely to have an impact.
Over the past weeks, Hezbollah’s capacity as an organized military force has been degraded. And having been pummeled for almost a year by Israel’s campaign, Hamas no longer stands as an organized military structure.
“The Israelis are determined with this momentum to break with what the Iranians and the axis of resistance called the ring of fire,” Miller said, referring to Tehran’s strategy of surrounding Israel with its proxies.
Even if Israel succeeds, Miller said he is skeptical that it can turn its military victories into political agreements that would lead to peace.
Miller grimly predicted that the three wars of attrition between Israel and Hamas, Israel and Hezbollah, and Israel and Iran will continue, albeit with less intensity.
Natasha Mozgovaya contributed to this report.
