A version of this initially appeared in The Recast, POLITICO’s race and politics newsletter.
What appears lost in the hype ahead of tonight’s must-see faceoff between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is just how momentous it will be.
A Black and South Asian woman, who’s seen significant grassroots enthusiasm in no small part thanks to her identity, is going up against a white man who has attacked her multiracial upbringing.
There’s just one glaring issue: Neither side believes their candidate should talk about race.
POLITICO spoke with half a dozen Republican and Democratic operatives, some of whom were granted anonymity to discuss how their nominee should approach tonight’s performance. Some of Harris’ allies say she should continue to lean into her record, rather than engage in a sparring match with her opponent over the litany of racialized attacks and musings he’s made over the years.
Republican strategists suggest Trump do the same: steer clear of personal attacks about Harris’ gender and racial identity, acknowledge her historic candidacy, but target instead what she’s done in office — and what she will do. Focusing on the policy, they say, will help woo voters, many of whom had an unfavorable view of the vice president prior to her rise.
It’ll still be a tricky strategy for both candidates. Harris is a far more capable opponent for Trump than President Joe Biden was during the June 27 debate. And Trump himself is an unconventional foe, arguably the most seasoned debater in modern history. This will be the former president’s seventh televised general election debate since 2016.
Trump is known for his unpredictability, but strategists say it’s too risky for him to wield identity politics as a cudgel against his rival. It could backfire spectacularly — even if it may play well with his base.
It may also leave Trump vulnerable to Harris relitigating his history of racialized attacks. Trump gained notoriety as a political figure by fanning birtherism falsehoods about his predecessor. He called for the death penalty for the Central Park Five, a group of Black and brown teens who were wrongly accused of assaulting a white woman in 1989. And he’s called Mexican migrants “rapists,” buddied up with white nationalists and suggested Harris only recently “turned Black.”
Still, Trump has shown remarkable resilience with the same voting blocs he’s criticized — ones Harris needs in her bid to win the White House. According to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist National Poll, Trump leads Harris among independents, has reversed his deficit among registered Latino voters and so far has nearly a quarter of Black respondents saying they’ll support him in the fall.
Tonight, we’re watching for three ways the race issue might play out — and we asked the operatives from both parties just how their respective nominee should approach each situation.
Here’s what they said.
1. Can Trump flip the issue of Harris’ historic candidacy?
Harris, who has forged her piercing and aggressive debate style through years as a prosecutor, is vying to fulfill a lot of firsts should she win the presidency: the first woman, the first person of Black and Indian descent, the first graduate of a historically Black college and university, and the first member of the Divine Nine.
While she rarely explicitly leans into this herself, electing to have supporters play up her barrier-breaking accomplishments for her, strategists say Trump can set the tone tonight by undercutting this narrative.
“Take the wind out of her sails by talking about the historic nature of her candidacy, and how a daughter of immigrants … can reach the highest heights of American democracy, and that’s a testament to our country,” said Alex Stroman, a former executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party.
Then, after genuinely congratulating her, Trump needs to sharply pivot.
“We don’t elect presidents of the United States based on their background,” said Stroman, who worked on Trump’s 2017 Presidential Inaugural Committee. “We should elect them on their policies and their ideas and their plans for the future. And we’ve seen what the last four years of the Biden administration have done.”
This strategy will force Harris early on to debate policy, which her critics say is a glaring weakness. She can at times overexplain and meander when pressed for policy specifics, or for an explanation why she’s flip-flopped on a position, like fracking.
2. Will Harris give more air time to Trump’s “turned Black” comment?
Democrats laugh at the idea that Trump could be disciplined in a debate.
They are betting on his inability to suppress his instincts to tear into an opponent, particularly one like Harris, who has stolen the spotlight from him and dominated headlines in the seven weeks she’s been atop the ticket.
It’s why, they say, he resorted to purposely mispronouncing her name and asking a gathering of Black journalists: “Is she Indian or is she Black?”
In response, Harris emphatically told a packed arena in Atlanta this summer: “If you’ve got something to say, say it to my face.”
But now that she’s going to be face-to-face with Trump, strategists don’t think it’s wise to engage him on any of that.
“If he decides to go down that path, you let him go and stand there silent as he defiles himself,” said Ashley Etienne, who was a senior adviser to both Harris and Biden.
With less than 60 days to go until Election Day, Etienne said, the theme of this debate is “do no harm.” And any sort of verbal counter about Harris’ identity may scratch an itch, but it may also open her up to the “angry Black woman” trope.
3. What about those “Black jobs”?
Former first lady Michelle Obama received a roaring response at the Democratic National Convention when she turned one of Trump’s June debate lines against him: “Who’s going to tell him that the job he’s currently seeking might just be one of those ‘Black jobs’?”
Apparently, not the vice president.
Gevin Reynolds, a former speechwriter for Harris, said she shouldn’t give this claim any more play. “Voters don’t necessarily need Kamala Harris to go up there and remind them that she’s Black,” he said.
Etienne, the former Harris adviser, put it a bit differently: “The internet has worn that out, for the better!”
But we do expect to see some kind of exchange over just which party and which administration has better served Black Americans.
Trump surrogate Harrison Fields wants the former president to lean into policy achievements like securing millions in funding for HBCUs (which the Biden-Harris administration has since increased) to passing his signature criminal justice reform law, the First Step Act. And he wants Trump to then contrast those wins with Democrats’ push for police reform and reparations — legislation that ultimately died in Congress.
“Democrats are really good about telling the Black community what they’re going to do,” Fields continued. “And when they have the power, they don’t do anything.”
