TOKYO: Japan’s ruling party will hold one of the most unpredictable leadership contests in decades on Friday (Sep 27), a race that could result in Japan’s youngest or first female premier, or see a popular veteran succeed in his fifth and final leadership bid.
The scramble to replace current premier Fumio Kishida was sparked in August when he announced his intention to step down over a series of scandals that plunged the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) ratings to record lows.
Polls suggest three candidates have the edge in a record nine-strong field: ex-environment minister and heir to a political dynasty Shinjiro Koizumi, 43; economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63; and former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, 67.
Whoever is chosen must quell anger at home over rising living costs and navigate a volatile security environment in East Asia fuelled by an increasingly assertive China and nuclear-armed North Korea.
The LDP, which has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war era and has a majority in parliament, must hold a general election by October 2025. If Koizumi wins, he has pledged to hold a snap election that could come as early as next month.
“It’s safe to assume that Ishiba, Takaichi, and Koizumi will do quite well, but I really cannot say who out of those three will win the race,” said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of politics at Tokyo University.
“I don’t think we’ll know until the very last moment.”
The result from the ballot, compromised of votes from each of the LDP’s 368 lawmakers and an equal number distributed among rank-and-file members, is expected around 2.20pm JST (5.20pm GMT).
If no candidate secures a simple majority – which is anticipated due to the wide field – a run-off poll follows between the two candidates with the most votes.
In the run-off, each lawmaker again gets one vote, but the share of the rank-and-file drops to 47 votes, one for each of Japan’s prefectures. That result is due at 3.30pm.
Traditionally, powerful party factions have swung in cohort behind favoured candidates, making it easier to predict who might prevail.
While the influence of party elders will still play a role, most of these factions were recently disbanded following a scandal over unrecorded political donations, making this vote harder to predict, say analysts.
