Hopefuls first need to get the support of 20 parliamentarians to recommend them for office, which will be a first litmus test of their leadership calibre.
Analysts say that if public approval ratings jump for the new head of LDP – de facto PM – a snap election could happen as early as within the year.
WILL FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE?
There is bound to be some nervousness among Japan’s allies, as some LDP leadership hopefuls could have differing foreign policy outlook.
But regardless who is the next party leader and prime minister, observers expect little changes to foreign and defence policies.
“There is basically near consensus in terms of the US-Japan alliance, and considering the current strategic environment in Asia Pacific, the LDP and other politicians in Japan would consider the current cause of action as pretty good,” Koga said.
Taniguchi said: “Objectively speaking, Japan’s options are not many in number, and the path forward is narrow. There is going to be very little difference between now and the future when it comes to Japan’s foreign policy.”
General elections must be held by October next year, as required by the constitution.
The ruling LDP is expected to continue its reign, despite dismal approval ratings.
This is because Japanese opposition parties are even more unpopular, said Taniguchi.
“If you see what the polls say of the opposition parties, there is a fair chance for the LDP to regain popularity from the Japanese public,” he said.
However, this still depends on the debates between LDP leadership contenders over the next month, as well as the public opinion of the next chosen party head.
Brown said the public is focused on the bread-and-butter issues, living costs and the growth prospects of the economy.
“(Candidates) will seek to assure the public that they’re the safe pair of hands who can see this difficult economic period (through), and can bring in the policies that would help to stabilise the yen and promote growth in the coming years,” he said.
While a change in leadership is sure to improve public support amid expectations for a shakeup in the LDP, questions remain over whether genuine reforms would be made, observers said.
