Japan’s ruling party may lose its majority in the lower house, according to media polling ahead of the October 27 election, meaning it would likely have to rely on coalition partner Komeito to stay in power.
The Liberal Democratic Party may not reach the 233 seats it needs for an outright majority in the 465-seat chamber, the Nikkei newspaper said on Thursday. The LDP has held sole control of the chamber since it returned to power in 2012 after three years in opposition.
In a separate poll by Jiji Press, support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Cabinet came to 28%, marking the lowest percentage of support for new governments dating back to 2000. The survey was conducted October 11-14 and published Thursday.
Ishiba’s government already depends on Komeito for a majority in the upper house. Extending that reliance to the more powerful lower house could give the group, backed by Japan’s largest Buddhist lay organization, a greater say in policymaking.
“I think that the LDP will cover, along with its coalition ally Komeito, the majority that it needs,” said Michael Cucek, a professor specializing in politics at Temple University in Tokyo.
If the LDP is relying on Komeito to reach a majority, that will give more leverage to a party that has pushed back on some of the LDP’s more hawkish security policies in the past, he added.
Komeito has been less willing than the LDP to embrace policies including giving Japan’s military longer-range missiles and removing restrictions on weapons exports that have stopped Tokyo from sending arms to Ukraine or Southeast Asian nations that oppose Beijing’s territorial ambitions in the South China Sea.
Nobuyuki Baba, the head of the Japan Innovation Party, the third-largest group in the lower house, has not ruled out working with the LDP after the election, media reported. He supports expanding Japan’s military capabilities and has said he would also back an amendment to Japan’s pacifist constitution to officially recognize the armed forces.
The Nikkei said its nationwide poll, conducted along with the Yomiuri newspaper, garnered responses from 165,820 people randomly contacted by phone on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A poll by broadcaster TBS released on Wednesday showed the LDP may lose about 30 seats, while Komeito may shed a small number. A separate poll of more than 150,000 people published by Kyodo on Wednesday also pointed to challenges for the LDP to secure a majority.
Ishiba dissolved the lower house of parliament on October 9, setting up the snap election.
He became leader last month after his predecessor Fumio Kishida ended his three-year premiership due to public distrust stemming from a string of funding scandals involving LDP politicians.
