Kentucky Derby: Fierceness’ odds keep shrinking ahead of the 150th race

Fierceness has become an even bigger favorite ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

The horse is now at 9-5 to win the 150th running of the race. If he wins, Fierceness would be the first favorite to win the Kentucky Derby since 2018. Earlier in the week, Fierceness had official odds of 3-1 at Twin Spires.

The Todd Pletcher-trained horse has finished first and third in his two starts this season and won two of three starts in 2023. Fierceness won the Florida Derby in March by 13.5 lengths after pulling away down the stretch. Fierceness led wire-to-wire and had a 1.5-length lead at the three-quarter pole.

Sierra Leone remains the No. 2 favorite at 6-1. As Fierceness’ odds have gotten lower, Sierra Leone’s have grown. The horse was at 3-1 earlier in the week. Sierra Leone has won both its starts this week and has three firsts and a second in four career starts. Sierra Leone is starting from the No. 2 post position while Fierceness launches from the 17th spot.

Overall, just four horses have odds better than 15-1. Forever Young is at 8-1 and Catching Freedom is at 9-1. Forever Young, a Japan-based horse, has never lost in its career with five wins in five starts. Catching Freedom has three wins and a third-place finish in five career starts.

If you’re looking for a huge potential payout that you probably won’t cash, the two biggest long shots entering the race are Society Man and Mugatu. Both horses are starting on the very outside. Society Man has the No. 20 post and is at 73-1 while Mugatu is at 87-1. Mugatu has made a lot of starts in his career and doesn’t have many wins to show for it. In 12 career starts, Mugatu has one win, a second and three thirds with career earnings of just over $80,000. That’s why it’s the longest shot in the field.

Kentucky Derby odds

• Fierceness (Post 17): 9-5

• Sierra Leone (2): 6-1

• Forever Young (11): 8-1

• Catching Freedom (4): 9-1

• Dornoch (1): 15-1

• Honor Marie (7): 16-1

• Just A Touch (8): 17-1

• Mystik Dan (3): 27-1

• Resilience (19): 28-1

• West Saratoga (13): 32-1

• Just Steel (6): 34-1

• Domestic Product (15): 38-1

• Catalytic (5): 42-1

• Stronghold (18): 43-1

• Track Phantom (12): 52-1

• Endlessly (14): 52-1

• T O Password (10): 61-1

• Epic Ride (21): 63-1

• Grand Mo The First (16): 64-1

• Society Man (20): 73-1

• Mugatu (22): 87-1