The favorite hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since 2018. It will likely be on Fierceness to break that trend.
When the Kentucky Derby post positions were set this week, Fierceness was a heavy 5-to-2 favorite. That is due to a win at the Florida Derby by more than 13 lengths on March 30.
The odds for each horse can change right up until the race starts, and it’s possible that Sierra Leone passes Fierceness for favorite status. Sierra Leone was 3-to-1 after getting post position No. 2. It’s unlikely any other horse will challenge to be the favorite by race time.
The only other horse with shorter than 10-to-1 odds was Catching Freedom at 8-to-1.
The favorite at race time won six straight races from 2013-18, but there has been a bit of a drought since then. With 20 horses in the field, it’s hard for even a heavily favored horse to win.
Fierceness does look good in what is considered to be a relatively weak field. In five career races, Fierceness has won three, including the huge Florida Derby win, and finished third in another. Fierceness’ trainer Todd Pletcher has had two Kentucky Derby winners.
Last year, Pletcher’s horse Forte was the 3-to-1 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby but was scratched before the race. Mage, which had 15-to-1 odds, won the race.
Here were the full odds as of the announcement of the post positions, which are subject to change before race time:
1. Dornoch, 20-1
2. Sierra Leone, 3-1
3. Mystik Dan, 20-1
4. Catching Freedom, 8-1
5. Catalytic, 30-1
6. Just Steel, 20-1
7. Honor Marie, 20-1
8. Just a Touch, 10-1
9. Encino (scratched)
10. T O Password, 30-1
11. Forever Young, 10-1
12. Track Phantom, 20-1
13. West Saratoga, 50-1
14. Endlessly, 30-1
15. Domestic Product, 30-1
16. Grand Mo the First, 50-1
17. Fierceness, 5-2
18. Stronghold, 20-1
19. Resilience, 20-1
20. Society Man, 50-1
21. Epic Ride, 50-1
