Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri highlights his keys to a Week 8 victory.
Sketchy spot of the week: Terry McLaurin vs. CHI
McLaurin has been fantastic this season. Heading into Week 8, McLaurin ranked 19th among WRs in fantasy points per game and had scored at least 13 fantasy points in five straight games. McLaurin is by far the Commanders’ No. 1 receiver. This is a bit obvious, but the difference between him and the next closest receiver on the team is massive. McLaurin has earned 49 targets this season; that’s 23 more than any other receiver on the team.
No doubt about it, McLaurin is having an awesome start to the year. But now he must face the Bears in Week 8. Chicago allows the third fewest yards per passing play this season according to NFL Pro and their secondary ranks second in the league according to PFF. This is bad enough for McLaurin, but he also is unlikely to have his QB Jayden Daniels this week. It’s tough to sit McLaurin right now, but if you start him temper your expectations.
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Pick-up-and-play of the week: Romeo Doubs at JAX
Doubs is coming off his best game of the season. He earned 8 catches for 94 yards on a team-high 10 targets in Week 7. Doubs was able to be this productive despite facing the Texans, who allow the second-fewest yards per passing play this season. He’s now scored 17+ fantasy points in back-to-back games since returning from his one-game suspension.
The Packers have a lot of talented receivers. This makes it difficult to get consistent performances out of any of them. But Doubs continues to lead this team in snaps and routes run. He’s the primary X receiver for Jordan Love, and that’s valuable. In Week 8, Doubs will face the Jaguars who allow the second-most passing yards per game. You can pick up and play Doubs this week.
Best spot of the week: Jordan Mason vs. DAL
Mason is coming off his best usage of the season. He earned a season-high 86% of the snaps and 93% of the 49ers’ backfield carries. This didn’t lead to a big fantasy day, but the important part is Mason looked healthy off his Week 6 shoulder injury. Through seven games, Mason still leads the NFL in carries and is second in red-zone touches.
He’ll have a least one more start before a potential Christian McCaffrey return in Week 10. In Week 8, Mason gets to face the Cowboys’ poor run defense. Dallas allows the most EPA per rushing play this season according to NFL Pro. The 49ers won’t have Brandon Aiyuk for this game and may not have Jauan Jennings or Deebo Samuel. Expect San Francisco to lean on Mason in a strong matchup.
Must-start of the week: Jaylen Waddle vs. ARI
Rostering Jaylen Waddle has not been a fun time the past five weeks. He’s failed to top 50 receiving yards during this stretch and his best finish in a game without Tua Tagovailoa this season is WR47. In Week 7, he had the ideal matchup against the weak Colts secondary and despite having an extra week to prepare Waddle posted his worst performance of the season. He totaled just one catch for 11 yards on two targets.
But Week 7 may have been rock bottom for Waddle. Tua is trending to return in Week 8 and that makes Waddle an instant top-24 WR once again for the first time since Week 2. In his one completed start with Tua this season, Waddle posted 112 total yards on 6 total touches. This week he gets a matchup at home against the Cardinals who allow the second most passing yards per play according to NFL Pro. Waddle is a must-start in Week 8.
Bounce-back of the week: J.K. Dobbins vs. NO
Dobbins had a great matchup in Week 7. He was facing a weaker Arizona defense that allowed the fourth most rushing yards per game entering last week. Unfortunately, Dobbins couldn’t take advantage of this strong matchup as he totaled 66 scoreless yards on his 17 touches. But here’s the good news: Dobbins’ role remained strong as he played 69% of the snaps and handled 74% of the backfield carries.
Expect a bounce-back performance from Dobbins this week. He’ll take on the Saints who allow the second most rushing yards per play this season. In Week 7, New Orleans gave up over 100 total yards and two touchdowns to Javonte Williams. According to PFF, the Saints rank 31st in tackling this season; it’s a great matchup for Dobbins, who has broken 18 tackles through six starts this year.
Trending down: Marvin Harrison Jr.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has failed to top five fantasy points in his last three games. He’s earned just an 18% target share during this time, which is behind TE Trey McBride and just slightly ahead of Michael Wilson on this team. Through seven games, Harrison ranks 49th in yards per route run and 64th in yards per target. The rookie is struggling right now and certainly not paying off his second-round price from drafts this summer.
Over the past three games, Harrison faced the 49ers, Packers and Chargers secondaries. According to PFF, all three of these units are top 10 in coverage grades this year. But the tough matchups won’t stop any time soon. Harrison will face the Bears, Jets, and Vikings over the next month. All three of these teams rank in the top 12 in coverage grades this season. Harrison has been performing poorly and his current outlook doesn’t look much better. The rookie is quickly trending down my rest-of-season rankings.
Trending up: Javonte Williams
He’s been trending up since the second half of Week 5 against the Jets. Over the past four games, Williams has averaged nearly 17 opportunities per game, and his 17% target share ranks second among all RBs during this stretch. The usage has been there and so has the production. Williams has two top-12 finishes the past four weeks, including a career-high showing in Week 7 against the Saints when he totaled 111 yards and two touchdowns.
The good performances should continue this week as Javonte takes on the Panthers. The Broncos are 10-point home favorites, which sets up nicely for Williams to potentially earn 20+ touches. Carolina allows the most rushing yards per game and their 16-point team total suggests they’ll be playing from behind in Week 8. If you have Williams, don’t look to sell high. Instead, you want to start him in an awesome matchup this week.
Buy-low target of the week: Rico Dowdle
Dowdle returns from his bye week, and he could be in store for a larger workload. Before the bye, coach Mike McCarthy stated that Dowdle definitely needs to touch the ball more. The last time McCarthy said this was a few weeks back before the Cowboys’ Thursday Night Football game in Week 4. In that game, Dowdle went on to have his largest workload of the season.
Dowdle has been efficient this season, averaging five yards per touch and earning the second-most yards per routes run among all running backs. It’s been worst-case scenario for the Cowboys on offense this season; they rank 28th in the league according to PFF. It can only get better coming out of their bye week, and if it does, Dowdle could be one of the biggest fantasy risers for the rest of the season. Try to buy low on Dowdle before Week 8. Trade someone like Alexander Mattison or Wan’Dale Robinson for him if you can.
Something to watch: Jaguars’ backfield
Tank Bigsby has been phenomenal this season. Through seven games, Bigsby ranks top 10 in yards created per touch, explosive run rate and broken tackle rate according to PlayerProfiler. He’s averaging a strong 6.5 yards per touch this season and he’s coming off of his best game of the year. Bigsby played a season-high 66% of the snaps in Week 7 and earned 118 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots.
This is all great, but there are concerns moving forward. First, Travis Etienne Jr. has been practicing and coach Doug Pederson recently said that Etienne is still the team’s number one back. That’s a concern, and so is Bigsby’s pass-catching role. Tank has just one reception on the season, and he’s often taken off the field in passing situations. Bigsby played just 26% of the snaps in Week 6 due to a trailing game script against the Bears. This is a concern because the Jaguars are likely to be underdogs in each of their next five games.
Monitor this backfield in Week 8, especially if Etienne returns. This could be the perfect window to sell high on Bigsby. If you do, try to trade him for someone like Jordan Mason, Brian Robinson Jr. or Tank Dell.
