BENGALURU: Malaysia’s economy likely grew at its fastest pace in 18 months in the second quarter of 2024, thanks to a strong rebound in exports and higher household consumption, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
The Aug 7-13 poll of 20 economists predicted Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy expanded 5.8 per cent in the April-June quarter, in line with advance estimates released in July, compared with the same period a year earlier.
That would mark the fastest growth since Q4 2022, with forecasts for the data due on Aug 16 ranging from 5.0 per cent to 6.8 per cent.
“A downturn in exports, especially those for technology and electronics products that Malaysia has been suffering since last year and into the early part of this year, seems to be bottoming out and … we’re starting to get that pick up into the second quarter of this year,” said Brian Tan, senior regional economist at Barclays.
Exports rose 9.1 per cent in April and 7.3 per cent in May, respectively, before moderating to 1.7 per cent in June on a year-on-year basis. Government data showed exports grew 3.9 per cent in the first half of 2024.
Malaysian exports, which heavily rely on Chinese demand, are likely to experience a boost from renewed economic ties between the two nations.
“We continue to hold an optimistic view on Malaysia’s cyclical growth outlook, and will watch for investment trends, given increased investors’ interest especially on the foreign direct investment front,” wrote Chua Han Teng, economist at DBS.
Economic growth was expected to average 4.4 per cent in 2024, a separate Reuters poll showed, which was in line with Bank Negara Malaysia’s estimate of 4.0 per cent to 5.0 per cent.
