No inside knowledge but Manchester United need to tread carefully due to PSR. Breach the rules and we could get a points deduction, which is something we absolutely need to avoid this season. While even if it was next season it’d be a real hindrance given the competitiveness of the EPL, with 5 to 10 points likely to separate the team that finishes 4th and the team that finishes 8th.
A 10 point deduction next season would almost certainly cost us UCL qualification next season as well.
We need to sell players to make space in the squad, reduce the wage bill and to raise funds to buy players.
While the fees we will get for most of the players we sell probably wouldn’t even be enough to break even on the player which will negatively effect our ability to spend. Casemiro for example needs to be sold for between 20-30m (depending on whether it’s January or the summer when he’s sold) to break even, anything less than that then that amount of money is effectively taken out of the possible spending budget.
While the money spent on sacking EtH and Ashworth along with the cost of hiring Amorim and his coaching staff has probably wiped out any money we had to spend in January, forcing a sell to buy situation for this window.
Add to that the January window is notoriously difficult to find value I’d say our chances of signing someone this month are very limited. If we can agree deals to move players on, whether that is straight sales in January or loans with obligations to buy in the summer then that has to be considered good business. Reducing the wage bill, raising funds, and reducing the workload for the summer.
I’d expect it’s most likely that one of Rashford or Garnacho will leave this January and they are about the only one’s we could sell that might raise enough money to actually make a purchase in January. Both being homegrown therefore there fees are considered entirely as profit. Without one of them leaving then I’d expect our chances of signing anyone this month will be practically zero.
We could sell Casemiro or Eriksen for example, but they won’t raise any money for purchases. Eriksen will go for a nominal fee if we are lucky he’ll raise 1-2m to spend which buys you nothing. While if we managed to have someone’s pants down and sold Casemiro for 40m then that still only raises 10 to 15m to fund a replacement. Again nowhere near enough to actually buy someone worthwhile in January.
Rashford or Garnacho selling for 35 to 60m would raise 35-60m to reinvest which makes a signing possible at least.
Unfortunately any deal for Rashford looks like a loan with either an obligation or option to buy, which again doesn’t bring any money in during January and might not even guarantee any in the summer. Leaving us with nothing to spend in January.
Really leaving any January purchases dependant on selling Garnacho.
Initially I liked the idea of resigning Alvaro Fernandez in January as it solves our LWB position. Yet with young Amass and the new kid Diego Leon joining in the summer I’m not sure it would be a great deal unless he was the only LWB we were intending on buying. If we have intentions and there is a real possibility of signing someone like Nuno Mendes or Rayan Ait-Nouri in the summer for a reasonable fee then they are better player right now (more proven) with as high or higher ceilings than Alvaro Fernandez. So I’m less keen on that deal now than I was before.
We need to be more measured, more calculated in the transfer market, both to sign players who actually work out, but also to limit our spending to keep within PSR/ FFP. We can’t afford to just throw money at our problems any more. Better to buy 3 or 4 players who all go into our starting 11 and improve it then signing 6 or 7 players with only a couple who actually end up improving our first team and the rest either being squad players at best or flops that get sold at a loss or we have to keep around because we can’t afford to make a loss on them (Antony for example) .
I think the new strategy will be to sign 3 or 4 players to go into the first 11, and then sign 2 or 3 very cheap youngsters who will initially go into the academy but could be ready for the first team as squad options in a year or two’s time. Players like Obi-Martin, Sekou Kone and Diego Leon.
I don’t see us signing players like Malacia for example. Players who will have a reasonable but still significant cost in terms of fees and wages, but who are good squad players with maybe potential to become more. I don’t see INEOS going for gamble players like that. Players who will likely have little impact, and at best might breakeven but probably end up costing us money.
I feel like Alvaro Fernandez would probably fall into that category. He’s better than what we have, but its questionable whether he will become good enough for what we will need. He’s an ideal player if you are signing two LWB’s. But not as the guy you are banking on becoming your starting player for the next 5-10 years.
Written by Shappy January 18 2025 12:00:21
