In the most binary sense, only one team is truly satisfied at the conclusion of a major-league season: the one hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy. Ask most players, and they’ll tell you any season that doesn’t end with a parade is a failure. However, it’s disingenuous to apply a World Series-or-bust standard to every single team every single season. The reality is that success — and satisfaction — vary based on several contextual factors. Offseason moves, injuries to key players and recent postseason experience/history (or lack thereof) can all alter or influence fans’ (and analysts’) assessment of a season at its conclusion.
With that in mind, we’re posing a simple question for this edition of our power rankings: What would a successful finish to the season look like for each team? Consider this an attempt to objectively project what each team should be striving for over the next six weeks and beyond. Putting aside the most basic goals of staying healthy and winning the World Series — and acknowledging that baseball’s postseason is the ultimate crapshoot — what is a realistic bar for each team to try to clear to avoid feeling unfulfilled entering the winter?
Let’s get into it.
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Despite middling results dating to the beginning of July, the Phillies have remained atop these power rankings due to a lack of worthwhile challengers to supplant them. That said, it’s also a reflection of the strength of Philadelphia’s roster that I’m less concerned about its weaknesses than those of some of the other teams jockeying atop the standings. Philly fans are right to be displeased by the team’s recent form, but the eyes should still be on the prize, and that’s another NL pennant. After failing to close out Arizona in last year’s NLCS — and with a loaded roster chock-full of elite talent and a wealth of October experience — returning to the Fall Classic should be the expectation here, with hopes of claiming the franchise’s first title since 2008.
The Dodgers’ doling out more than $1 billion last winter in an effort to build a modern superteam is more than enough to warrant the highest of standards when judging the success of their season. But the fact that L.A. hasn’t reached the World Series since winning it all in 2020 — and has won one NLDS game the past two seasons — unquestionably ratchets up the pressure even further to advance multiple rounds this coming October. That the Dodgers might need to sweat to capture the division crown is already something of a letdown, but the healthier this team gets, the more it begins to look like the juggernaut we expected back in spring training. The Dodgers need to make serious noise this postseason and reach the NLCS at the very least; a third consecutive NLDS exit would be a disaster.
With so much young talent in place, this organization is going to be on the upswing no matter what happens over the next few months. But with Corbin Burnes’ free agency looming and last season’s abrupt playoff elimination via Texas top of mind, it’s important for this group to take meaningful steps forward during this year’s expected trip to the playoffs. In other words, win a round or two. Holding off New York for another AL East title would surely be an achievement worth celebrating, but Baltimore is now too good to be judged in relation to its recent rebuild or strictly by its regular-season results. Now it’s about marching closer to the ultimate goal of winning a World Series; this team should have its sights squarely set on the ALCS at the very least.
It’s no secret that the wait for ring No. 28 has gone on far longer than expected for baseball’s most storied franchise, and a team that has won a boatload of regular-season games over the past decade has little to show for it. While it’s possible that Juan Soto remains in pinstripes long-term, his pairing with Aaron Judge this season should not be taken lightly, and the pressure on the rest of the roster to support its two MVP candidates should only grow as Soto’s free agency nears. This team has its flaws but is plenty talented enough to make a deep run if the pitching staff can rediscover its form from the first half. A return to the postseason alone will be refreshing after last season’s 82-win slog, but the Bronx faithful won’t be remotely satisfied with just an invite to the dance. For the Yankees, reaching the ALCS feels like the bare minimum to avoid another winter of difficult questions.
Look at the Brew Crew! A division that was thought to be perhaps the most balanced and competitive entering the year instead features the largest lead of any division leader, with Milwaukee a staggering 11 games up on St. Louis. From that perspective — assuming Milwaukee does cruise to a division title — the Brewers have already far outpaced what we thought they were capable of in 2024, considering the amount of turnover they experienced over the winter. Any amount of success this postseason will feel like gravy to a certain degree, though perhaps we should be talking about them as what they are: a team with one of the best records in baseball. That said, with a thin rotation and the recent news of Christian Yelich missing the rest of the year due to back surgery, the Brewers will likely still enter October as something of an underdog. I’d guess they like it that way.
The Guardians mirror Milwaukee as a surprise Central squad with a shallow rotation but elite talent elsewhere on the roster enabling a lengthy residence in first place. However, the Guardians’ division lead — one they’ve held for virtually the entire season — has been shrinking lately, in part because of the sweep they just suffered this past weekend in Milwaukee. At this point, fending off the Twins and Royals to capture the AL Central crown amid one of the more competitive versions of this division that we’ve seen in quite some time would be no small feat and should be celebrated as such if Cleveland holds on. Assuming the Guardians reach October, ample questions remain about how this rotation will hold up against some of the other contenders’ lineups, in turn limiting my expectations for this team’s ceiling.
No longer will we go into October talking about the Twins’ historic postseason losing streak; that burden was mercifully shed last year. This year’s Twins, should they return to October, will need to answer only questions about what’s ahead of them, rather than the organizational shortcomings of the past. And while it hasn’t chased down Cleveland — not yet, anyway — Minnesota has been one of baseball’s steadiest teams all year, with a winning record in every month and a balanced roster with clear strengths in the lineup, rotation and bullpen. As such, a trip to the ALCS for the first time since 2002 seems like a realistic goal for Minnesota, especially if it can usurp Cleveland atop the division and earn a first-round bye.
We’ll be scratching our heads about why the 2023 Padres didn’t work out for a long time, but let’s just say it’s nice to see this year’s San Diego squad living up to its talent level and maybe even exceeding it. Chasing down the rival Dodgers for a shocking NL West title is obviously the dream — just imagine San Diego seizing the division during the series at Dodger Stadium in late September — but a more realistic goal would be to secure the top NL wild card and ensure at least a couple of home playoff games in front of a Petco Park crowd that has been absolutely phenomenal all season. Given how this roster has rounded into form recently, perhaps it’d be just the start of what could be a special October in San Diego.
The Snakes will not be sneaking up on anyone this October, as this team has clearly elevated to a level that no longer resembles the underdog role they played a year ago. That also makes it somewhat challenging to calibrate reasonable expectations for this group because while this year’s D-backs team appears qualitatively better than the one that went to the World Series last year, they wouldn’t be among my first handful of picks to win the NL pennant this time around, given the competition ahead of them. At the very least, these D-backs should be clinching a playoff spot a lot more comfortably than they did a year ago, and as last year reminded us, it’s about getting a ticket to the dance and seeing what happens from there.
10. Kansas City Royals, 70-55
No team exemplifies this season already being a success, no matter what happens over the next two months, more than the Royals. A team that lost 106 games last year is now closer to being the No. 1 overall seed in the AL than it is to being outside the playoff picture. That’s astonishing! But once we accept the Royals’ dramatic turnaround as more than just a feel-good story and try to pinpoint how far they might actually go, things get a bit murkier. Bobby Witt Jr. plus a solid starting rotation would seem to be a decent recipe for postseason success, but it’s hard to trust the depth of this lineup or the shaky bullpen to hold up against elite October competition that is much more used to the postseason stage. In that sense, winning a single playoff round would be a massive organizational victory, and being a postseason team at all should be celebrated as well.
A Houston team that started 7-19 has somehow built a sizable division lead over Seattle, and it’s not even September yet. Houston’s April woes were certainly an unfamiliar obstacle for this group to overcome, but its furious climb up the standings back to its familiar perch atop the AL West was a bold reminder of the Astros’ talent and collective mettle. If any team is going to set its standard for success as reaching the ALCS, it’s the team that has been there seven years in a row. Don’t be surprised if the ‘Stros make it eight.
In a season flooded with injuries to star players, arguably no team has been hit harder than Atlanta, with the latest blow being Austin Riley’s fractured hand taking him out of action for the remainder of the regular season. While the horrid injury luck screams that this is simply not the Braves’ year, the lack of compelling alternatives for the third NL wild card leaves the door open for Atlanta to still reach the postseason, which would certainly be a success considering how much they’ve lost along the way. If nothing else, it might be a nice change of pace for Atlanta to enter October with a nothing-to-lose mentality, rather than the pressure of being one of baseball’s most loaded rosters. And no matter how banged up the Braves are, no opponent is going to want to deal with Cy Young front-runner Chris Sale in a short playoff series, so there’s still a path for this team to make some noise.
Boston’s excellent offense has been unable to overcome an atrocious stretch by the bullpen, leaving the Red Sox currently out of the AL playoff picture. It’s a good thing the Red Sox already extended one of baseball’s best managers in Alex Cora, so his future in Boston won’t be hanging over the organization for the remainder of the season. And after consecutive 78-win campaigns, this season will likely represent a step forward for Boston from a record standpoint. But for a fan base with appropriately high standards, missing the postseason for a third year in a row — something that hasn’t happened to the Red Sox since 2012 — would not be received well. Cora for the long haul is a big deal, but this team appears to be letting a real opportunity to reassert itself as a threat in the American League slip. A return to October, if even as the last wild card, is pivotal for this franchise.
Since last winter, the Mets have been sending mixed signals regarding how seriously they intend to compete in 2024, but they currently find themselves as perhaps the biggest challenger to Atlanta for the third and final NL wild-card spot, and they shouldn’t take that opportunity lightly. Sure, owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns have been focused on building a sustainable winner, rather than going all-out to win this year, but we’re still talking about a team with a gargantuan payroll that should be held to reasonably high standards, regardless of leadership’s big-picture plans that might require patience. Even with an injured and relatively undermanned pitching staff, this lineup has more than enough star power to qualify for the expanded postseason, and Pete Alonso’s uncertain future in Queens adds some pressure to do so.
Despite fielding one of baseball’s best rotations, Seattle’s ineptitude on offense was the driving force behind its squandering a massive division lead to Houston, and that continues to hamper the team’s ability to stay afloat in the AL postseason picture. After being eliminated on the final weekend last year, a return to the postseason felt like a must for this franchise, considering the talent in place and the moves made not only over the winter but also at the trade deadline. But at this point, given how poorly the past couple of months have gone, qualifying for the postseason would feel like more of a relief than a resounding success. While the sentiment remains that this team could be dangerous in October if it manages to sneak in, it’s looking increasingly unlikely that the Mariners will get the chance.
Only the Dodgers spent more money in free agency last winter than these Giants, yet here San Francisco sits in a familiar vortex of mediocrity, unable to get hot enough to climb the standings but too talented to fall far behind the pack. This team is still within shouting distance of a wild card, and for all that has been invested in building this roster — most notably including a pitcher who might not be back next year in Blake Snell — it’s imperative for this group to not only stay relevant in the standings but also make a real push toward returning to the postseason. Another October at home should not be acceptable for a team with these resources and this talent.
In selling aggressively at the deadline, Tampa Bay officially set its sights on 2025 and beyond as its next window of contention, thus turning its attention for the remainder of this season to the young players who will form the core of the next great Rays team. At the forefront of that movement is rookie infielder Junior Caminero, who possesses the kind of game-changing offensive talent that could soon replace the likes of Randy Arozarena in the middle of the Rays lineup. There’s already substantial enthusiasm for what a healthy version of this Rays pitching staff could look like next year once Shane McClanahan is back; a big September from the 21-year-old Caminero could add considerably to the excitement about a Rays offense that is going to look a lot different moving forward.
Remember how stunning it was to watch the ever-steady Cardinals have a legitimately bad season last year? Well, they might not be on pace to lose 90-plus games, but they are in serious danger of finishing below .500 for a second consecutive season — something that hasn’t happened in nearly 30 years. In that sense, few teams are under more pressure to scrap and claw their way back into the playoff mix than the Cardinals over the next six weeks, especially given the moves they made last winter and at the deadline in an effort to reclaim their status as a postseason contender. This team needs to start stacking wins and quickly. If not, the questions about the direction of this franchise that followed last year’s disaster are sure to resurface.
The Cubs didn’t hire Craig Counsell away from Milwaukee only to miss the postseason and watch the Brewers run away with the division, yet that seems to be the direction we’re heading. That reality alone will make it difficult for the Cubs and their fans to feel remotely positive about this season, but it’s worth noting that Chicago has played well since the trade deadline and has one of baseball’s easiest remaining schedules. The Cubs won’t be catching Milwaukee, but perhaps there is one last gasp from this group to make up for what has otherwise been a remarkably underwhelming summer of Cubs baseball.
With an absolute ace atop the rotation in Tarik Skubal and a considerably underrated bullpen but a woefully unproductive offense, it’s crucial for Detroit to start identifying which young hitters will propel this lineup moving forward because it’s going to take a whole lot more than Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. That process is clearly underway with the recent call-ups of Dillon Dingler, Trey Sweeney and Jace Jung, as well as the recall of former No. 1 pick Spencer Torkelson after a few months in Triple-A. Even if this team finishes with a similar number of wins to last year’s 78, giving playing time to the next wave of bats could pay serious dividends in clarifying the status of the roster entering the winter.
It has been a truly bizarre year for Cincy, with the team having been above .500 for only a brief stretch at the end of April yet possessing the best run differential (+33) of any current non-playoff team with September approaching. Having fallen just short of the NL wild card a year ago and spent relatively aggressively this past winter to add veteran talent to support a young core, the Reds looked to be on the up-and-up, but injuries and inconsistency have seemingly derailed any hope of a substantial step forward in 2024. At the very least, 2024 will be remembered for the power-speed spectacle that was Elly De La Cruz’s sophomore season. To that point, Reds fans can still hope for a scorching September from De La Cruz, one that could vault him toward the top of the NL MVP discussion.
While we all wish Pittsburgh were playing well enough to afford us the chance to see Paul Skenes pitch in a playoff push, that scenario isn’t looking especially likely. However, if we do want to watch Skenes and this ultra-promising, young Buccos pitching staff lead the team back to the postseason anytime soon, we’re going to need to see a lot more from the young hitters in this organization. Whether it’s from struggling mainstays such as Ke’Bryan Hayes, a former top pick in Henry Davis or prospects acquired at the deadline making their debuts, like Nick Yorke or Billy Cook, some signs of life on offense over the final weeks would go a long way toward restoring some optimism about next year’s team.
Barring a miracle, Texas’ attempt to defend its title will cease before October even begins. Any hope that Jacob deGrom — slated to make a rehab appearance in Double-A this week — would return to the mound for the Rangers amidst a fierce postseason push is rapidly dwindling. That said, deGrom remains a relevant character in how Texas can still feel good about the finish to this season. We know Texas’ lineup is just about locked in for next season, but this team needs to gain clarity about its pitching moving forward. And if deGrom comes back looking like Jacob deGrom, the first big question about a highly unsettled 2025 Rangers rotation might be answered emphatically. That uncertainty on the mound is also reason to keep a close eye on young righties Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker over the next six weeks, as a strong finish from the former Vanderbilt teammates could also lend some optimism for next year’s pitching staff.
May and June might have been ugly, but Oakland quietly has a .500 record at home this year and the fourth-best record in baseball since the start of July (24-15). While there’s nothing these players can do on the field to mitigate the pain of Oakland losing its team after this season, it has been pretty cool to see how competitive this squad has been, even if the odds stacked so thoroughly against them. I hope this team continues to give fans at the Coliseum something to cheer about as the franchise’s tenure in Oakland winds down; if any fan base deserves to see some wins over the last few weeks, it’s this one.
CJ Abrams and James Wood headline an emergent position-player core that could soon be bolstered by last year’s No. 2 pick, Dylan Crews. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the strides Washington appeared to make on the mound in the first half haven’t quite sustained, leaving some questions about how ready this pitching staff is going to be as the team (hopefully) starts to exit its rebuild phase in 2025. I’ll be watching MacKenzie Gore’s final handful of starts closely in this regard, as he has the talent to take the ball on Opening Day next season, but his inconsistency lately has me spooked.
There’s little Toronto can do over the final six weeks to redeem what has been one of baseball’s most disappointing seasons, but it executed a very clear deadline strategy in an effort to reload for 2025 instead of reverting into a full-blown rebuild. This has resulted in a ton of young guys getting playing time down the stretch, which should provide valuable insight on which players will be prepared to play supporting roles on a team that intends to compete again next season. Beyond that, Jays fans can sit back and watch Vladimir Guerrero Jr. do his thing and hope for some draft lottery luck come December to help boost an understocked farm system.
27. Los Angeles Angels, 53-72
A ninth straight season without a trip to October — and yet another with Mike Trout finishing on the IL — is a tough pill to swallow for Anaheim, and a bottom-ranked farm system suggests that the long-term future might not be especially bright either. With that in mind, all hope lies in the young players already in the big leagues (Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel) continuing to show promise. But while the hitters’ progress has been encouraging, there’s much less to be excited about on the mound. For that reason, I’d love to see Reid Detmers make a return to the big leagues before this year is up and give us one glimmer of optimism for next year’s rotation.
28. Miami Marlins, 46-79
Miami executed the most important part of its 2024 plans when it shipped off a bevy of veterans in an effort to restock the farm system, so the rest of this season should be squarely focused on the development of those newly acquired players, whether that’s in the big leagues with guys such as Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers or in the minors with the likes of Agustin Ramirez and Robby Snelling. It’s also a good time to find out which of the currently healthy pitchers will be key members of Miami’s pitching staff next year, when the likes of Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez and Jesus Luzardo are hopefully back at full strength.
29. Colorado Rockies, 46-79
Putting the longstanding, obvious goal of Finally Finding Some Competent Pitching aside (I have little hope that will be accomplished anytime soon), I think it’s important for Colorado to see an encouraging finish from outfielder Nolan Jones after he was activated from the IL earlier this week. I was totally sold on Jones’ ascent to stardom based on what he did as a rookie: He raked against lefties, he raked away from Coors Field, and he played excellent outfield defense, seemingly checking all the boxes of what the Rockies would want in a star position player. But back injuries have completely derailed Jones’ sophomore season, an especially frustrating development considering the progress made by other young Rockies bats, such as Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar. If Jones can regain some momentum entering 2025, this could soon be a position-player group worth getting excited about, especially with this year’s No. 3 pick, Charlie Condon, hopefully not far behind.
30. Chicago White Sox, 30-96
This one is simple: Don’t finish with the most losses in baseball history. Having been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention earlier than any team in the divisional or wild-card era, Chicago’s woes are already historic by some measures. But there is still time for them to avoid losing more games than the 1962 Mets (120) or 2003 Tigers (119) and perhaps play spoiler for some highly unsuspecting teams along the way. It won’t be easy — this team is currently on pace to lose 122 — but that’s interim manager Grady Sizemore’s task for the next six weeks.
