The dust has settled, and the MLB trade deadline is officially over. Only time can truly parse the good trades from the bad, but we’re going to do our best.
Here are three winners and three losers from the recent trade frenzy.
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WINNERS
San Diego general manager A.J. Preller does stuff. He has always done stuff. He will always do stuff. In his first winter in charge of the Padres back in 2015, Preller transacted his roster into oblivion. There are few givens in the World of Ball, but Preller dealing up a storm is one.
And when you take such a volatile actor and add a layer of job insecurity, you get chaos. The passing of beloved owner Peter Seidler has created an uncertain future in regard to San Diego’s leadership. Within that, Preller has gotten more cushion than most execs could dream of, yet he has just two playoff series wins to show for it. For the first time in his executive career, Preller is very much on the hot seat.
At this deadline, he acted accordingly. The Padres shipped off a cavalcade of prospects to Tampa Bay and Miami to acquire perhaps the two best relievers traded, Jason Adam and Tanner Scott. Bullpen arms are unpredictable, which makes the few reliable ones rare rubies. Scott and Adam give San Diego one of the league’s most formidable bullpens, something they’ll need to reach October and keep Preller in town.
There’s no shame in mortgaging the future, especially if it’s a future you might not be around to witness. This week, Preller acted with appropriate urgency. This could all blow up in San Diego’s face; the prospects they jettisoned could become All-Stars. Either way, it’s likely the next guy’s problem.
In some ways, evaluating a team’s deadline can be boiled down to a simple question: Did you acquire a difference-maker? Did you add (1) a starting pitcher good enough to take the ball in a playoff game, (2) an impact reliever who can throw high-leverage innings in October or (3) an every-day position player?
Seattle answered yes to questions two and three at this deadline and already has a stable of starters capable of an October nod.
Adding Randy Arozarena from the Rays a few days before the pencils dropped was exactly the type of move the sluggish Mariners absolutely needed to make. Their offense has been a lost puppy for months now, a sleep-walking husk unworthy of taking the diamond next to such a splendid pitching staff. Arozarena, with a highlight reel of postseason heroics, gives that unit a chance to change the narrative.
Yimi García, a hard-throwing reliever who came over from the Blue Jays, should slot into the back of Seattle’s bullpen. The 33-year-old has an ERA under 3.00 this season, with more than a strikeout per inning. He becomes only the second active Mariners reliever with postseason experience; that’s a crucial dynamic when the weather gets cold.
For a deadline seller to be deemed a deadline “winner,” that team must first experience a whole lot of losing. As such, it feels a little strange to toss a hearty thumbs-up toward the doormat Miami Marlins, who dropped to 39-68 on Tuesday. This team stinks, in part because they opted to stand pat this past winter after a surprise playoff berth and in part because their rotation has been ravaged by injuries. That was the reality facing first-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix.
But the bespectacled executive did a great job in his first deadline as the head honcho. Miami dealt away anything of value from the big-league roster in exchange for, well, a whole dang farm system. They brought in 14 prospects and former O’s outfielder Kyle Stowers, who is practically still a prospect. It’s an incredibly impressive accomplishment on a sheer logistical level for an organization that desperately needed an infusion of talent. Time will tell whether they picked the right prospects, but at least Miami got some. The Marlins are a work in progress, but slow progress has begun.
LOSERS
Yes, the Orioles got better. They filled their biggest need, starting pitching, by acquiring Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers. But Baltimore’s moves put too much stock into what their new players could be, instead of what they are right now.
The O’s have a well-earned reputation for being outstanding at development, for helping players at all levels of their organization get the most out of their abilities. Now their big-league development group will need to work its magic on Rogers, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto and Eloy Jimenez if they are to become key contributors this season. All have shined in the bigs — Soto and Rogers were All-Stars, Dominguez was a key high-leverage arm for the Phillies, Jimenez won a Silver Slugger — but all come with huge warts.
Besides Eflin, who looks in line to start a playoff game for Baltimore, nobody the Orioles acquired can be considered a sure thing. At this deadline, the O’s acted like a team on the fringes of contention, searching for value and upside under every rock — not a division leader tied for MLB’s third-best record with a real chance at a World Series title. Sure, prices were high , and GM Mike Elias didn’t want to overpay. But in the Rogers deal, the O’s parted with two well-regarded prospects in Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to acquire a pitcher who needs some tweaks to become an impact arm. It was a passive way to spend those bullets, especially for a team in such desperate need of another impact relief arm.
Chicago moved the three players it absolutely had to move: Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech and Tommy Pham. The problem is the White Sox grouped that trio into the one trade and somehow received only three prospects back. That’s (1) a huge misread of the market and (2) bad process by GM Chris Getz and Chicago’s other decision-makers. Even if you’re high on the three prospects the White Sox received — I’m not — that’s simply not enough players!
Fixing this thing is going to take time and patience, but the White Sox’s decision to hinge their entire deadline on a small group of prospects adds pressure and reduces the overall likelihood of success. Considering how bad Chicago made out in that three-way deal, it’s probably a good thing they didn’t trade their two biggest fish: Luis Robert Jr. and Garrett Crochet.
This one is simple: The Twins were embarrassingly inactive for a team in contention. Trevor Richards, a gray-haired, changeup-artist reliever with a 4.64 ERA this year in Toronto, was the only player acquired.
Minnesota is a flawed, talented club currently in a postseason spot. FanGraphs pegged their odds of making the playoffs at 82.6% entering play Tuesday. To be gracious, this front office is dealing with significant payroll restrictions, which clearly limited their ability to add to the roster. But still, c’mon.
The Twins could’ve used rotation help and another impact reliever. This is not exactly the behavior you want from an organization with one postseason series win since the Roman Empire collapsed.
