NATO allies are currently negotiating an upward revision to the defence spending target, despite several countries failing to reach the current 2% of GDP threshold.
Defence spending from Canada and European NATO allies jumped by 20% year-on-year in 2024, but “considerably” more money is needed before the end of the decade to deter a Russian attack, Mark Rutte said on Wednesday.
“In 2024, NATO allies in Europe and Canada invested $485 billion (€467.5 billion) in defence, a nearly 20% increase compared with 2023,” the NATO Secretary General told reporters.
“With a full two-thirds of allies spending at least 2% of their GDP on defence. I expect even more Allies to meet and, in many cases, exceed the target in 2025,” he added.
Defence ministers from the 32-member organisation will gather in Brussels on Thursday for their first meeting since Donald Trump’s new administration was inaugurated, with support for Ukraine and defence spending topping the agenda.
NATO leaders are expected to agree to a new spending target at their summit in late June when new military capability goals will also be outlined.
Rutte stressed on Wednesday that these new capabilities will require “that many allies – especially in Europe and Canada – invest considerably more”.
Trump has called for the NATO spending target to be raised to 5%, a threshold no ally currently meets. He has also said he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to allies who don’t pay enough. The UK has signalled it is aiming for a 3% target while Rutte has in the past said that 4% might be required of allies.
“If we stick to the 2%, we cannot defend ourselves in four of five years,” he told reporters on Wednesday, arguing that the capability gaps are “simply too big” for the current target, set in 2014.
The final number, he added, “will end up considerably north of 3%”.
Asked about a new Danish intelligence report that found that Russia could launch a full-scale war against European NATO allies before the end of the decade should the US withdraw its support, Rutte said that should Moscow attack, “the reaction will be devastating.”
“He [Russian President Vladimir Putin] will lose. So let him not try it. And he knows this. The deterrence and defence is very strong,” Rutte said.
But he acknowledged that Russia is “outspending” and outproducing European allies and that the situation might look different by 2030.
NATO member states should continue to support Ukraine, increase defence spending and ramp up military production.
“We need to take those decisions this year,” he said.
EU leaders from the 27-country bloc are currently wrestling with the issue of how to boost spending and production with multiple options on the table as estimates put the financial gap to plug at €500 billion over the coming decade.
ADVERTISEMENTThe main option to liberate cash quickly that emerged from an informal retreat earlier this month is for the EU to bend the bloc’s fiscal rules to exclude defence spending from their national expenditures.
Some member states are also pushing for the issuing of so-called Eurobonds – or common debt – to finance joint projects. But the measure, launched to give a lifeline to the EU’s COVID-stricken economy, is strongly opposed by several countries with healthier balance sheets.
A White Paper on defence detailing the military capabilities the bloc needs and the various options to finance them is to be released on March 19, with decisions set for the June leader’s summit, held a day after the NATO gathering.
