With a 30-team field of hopefuls now whittled down to a final four, the NBA-watching world now trains its attention on Las Vegas. Welcome to the semifinals of the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup. Grab a beverage, sit down, stay a spell; Trae’s got a hot hand.
Two teams from each conference — the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets from the West, the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks from the East — will square off in a Saturday doubleheader to determine which squads will have the chance to compete for the NBA Cup. Let’s set the table for what’s sure to be a thrilling conclusion by revisiting how we got here and taking a look at some things to keep an eye on in each of our two semifinal tilts:
Where we left off
In the East:
Playing without injured leading scorers Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the Magic mounted about as valiant an effort as you could ask for against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Co. Orlando dominated the offensive glass, forced 16 Milwaukee turnovers and led the top-seeded and favored Bucks in the final minute behind a career-high 32 points from guard Jalen Suggs.
But after a clutch triple and driving finish by Damian Lillard put Milwaukee back on top, Suggs came up just short on two long balls — one for the lead, the other for a tie — that allowed the Bucks to finish off a 114-109 win, stay undefeated in the tournament and punch their tickets to Vegas.
They’ll face the Hawks, who took down the East-leading Cavaliers and Celtics en route to winning East Group C … and who kept their tournament run alive by defanging another top offense at Madison Square Garden.
The revamped Hawks surround All-Star point guard Trae Young with a ton of size: centers Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu stand 6-foot-10; forwards Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher and De’Andre Hunter all go 6-foot-8; ascendant defensive menace Dyson Daniels flanks Trae at 6-foot-7. Atlanta brought all that height, length and athleticism to bear on the Knicks, holding Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and the rest of New York’s red-hot offense to just 46 points on 19-for-49 shooting in the second half while owning the offensive glass, grabbing 14 of their season-high 22 offensive rebounds after intermission.
That applied physicality, combined with Young’s patient dissection of New York’s coverage to create open look after open look, turned a game the Knicks had once led by double-digits into a 108-100 win for the visitors, another chance for Young to tweak the MSG faithful …
… and an opportunity for the upstart Hawks to take aim at another favorite in pursuit of a big gold trophy and an even bigger bag.
In the West:
The Thunder made two major offseason moves to fix the flaws revealed during their loss to the Mavericks in the second round of the 2024 NBA playoffs: signing Isaiah Hartenstein to shore up the weakness on the glass that Mavs centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II exploited in the postseason, and flipping the shaky-shooting-and-defending Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso, an All-Defensive Teamer fresh off a 40% season from deep. Both moves paid off Tuesday: Hartenstein led Oklahoma City to a 17-7 edge on the offensive glass; Caruso knocked down a pair of 3s while dishing four assists and snaring two steals off the bench; and a suffocating Thunder defense harassed Mavericks superstars Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving into just 33 combined points.
That’s six fewer than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had all by his damn self:
Behind a 39-point masterclass from SGA, a season-high 20 3-pointers, and a snare-drum-tight defensive effort that held the Mavs — who were missing starting forward/OKC killer P.J. Washington — to their second-worst offensive performance of the season, the Thunder cruised to a 118-104 win to secure a spot in the semis … where they’ll be joined by the Rockets, following a controversial conclusion to Houston’s Wednesday slugfest against the Warriors.
Whether or not you agree with the referees’ late-game decisions on the scramble drill that ended with Gary Payton II committing Golden State’s 15th turnover and Jalen Green hitting two game-winning free throws — Steve Kerr sure as hell didn’t — the Rockets deserve credit for getting off the mat against the more experienced Stephen Curry- and Draymond Green-led Dubs, finishing the game on a 9-1 run, and leaning on their elite defense to punctuate it with a stop and close out a 91-90 squeaker.
Back in April, the Warriors edged out the surging Rockets, ending Houston’s hopes of making the play-in tournament; eight months later, Ime Udoka’s young charges returned the favor, setting up what promises to be a bruising matchup between two of the youngest and best defensive teams in the NBA.
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What to know about the semifinal matchups
(1) BUCKS VS. (3) HAWKS — SATURDAY, 4:30 P.M. ET (TNT)
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Bucks: East Group B winner, East No. 1 seed, 5-0 record, +55 point differential (W vs. Raptors, W vs. Pacers, W at Heat, W at Pistons, W vs. Magic)
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Hawks: East Group C winner, 4-1 record, +23 point differential (W at Celtics, W vs. Wizards, L at Bulls, W vs. Cavaliers, W at Knicks)
When these two teams met last week, Giannis and Dame combined for 56 points on just 28 field goal attempts … and Atlanta still won by 15 on the road, blitzing a Bucks team that was on the second half of a back-to-back and lacked any juice beyond what its two superstars provided.
“I thought we were dead-legged most of the game,” Bucks coach Doc Rivers told reporters after the contest. “We didn’t think well, which is a direct sign of fatigue. Didn’t execute very well. Our passes were really late.”
This time, the Hawks won’t be coming in with the rest advantage. And this time, Milwaukee will have its third star, forward Khris Middleton, back in the fold (albeit on a minutes restriction) after he missed the first 21 games of the season recuperating from offseason surgery on both of his ankles.
The three-time All-Star is still knocking the rust off, shooting just 5-for-20 from the field in his first 63 minutes. But the Bucks have won those minutes by 23 points, scoring at a league-best clip in the half-court with Middleton available to provide a critical complementary playmaking option, dishing 19 assists against three turnovers — with 13 of the helpers going to Giannis:
7 of Khris Middleton’s 8 assists last night were to Giannis.
13 of his 19 assists since returning are to Giannis.
Their chemistry is still as good as anyone’s in the league. pic.twitter.com/4HEQSWRJj8
— Nathan Marzion (@nathanmarzion) December 11, 2024
The Bucks might need that level of ruthless half-court efficiency if the Hawks bring the same energy they did in their quarterfinal win over the Knicks … which, now that you mention it, resembled the script of last week’s win in Milwaukee.
The Hawks hectored the Bucks into a season-high-tying 18 turnovers, 16 of which were live-ball cough-ups — a specialty of an Atlanta team that trails only Oklahoma City in steals and deflections per game. That allowed the Hawks to repeatedly push the ball against Milwaukee’s bottom-10 transition defense, to the tune of 30 fast-break points.
Atlanta also pounded the Bucks on the offensive glass, rebounding 38.6% of its missed shots — the second-highest figure Giannis and Co. have allowed all season, just ahead of what Orlando managed in the quarters — and turning them into 19 second-chance points. All those extra possessions, combined with Young repeatedly getting downhill against a porous point-of-attack coverage and his fellow Hawks taking advantage with smart off-ball cuts behind somnambulant defenders, produced 64 points in the paint for Atlanta.
That’s the second most the Bucks have given up this season, but it’s not an outlier for Quin Snyder’s team. The Hawks have hit that mark 10 times in 26 games and scored more paint points per game than anybody but Memphis. (The Bucks, on the other hand, sit 26th in that category, despite employing the sport’s most devastating interior scorer.)
Losing the possession battle nearly cost Milwaukee against a Magic team missing its two best offensive players. Do it against a Hawks side that’s brimming with confidence led by assist king Young and an emerging weapon in the 22-year-old Johnson — now averaging 20.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 3.0 “stocks” in NBA Cup play — and the top-seeded Bucks could find themselves on the business end of a second straight upset in Sin City.
(1) THUNDER VS. (2) ROCKETS — SATURDAY, 8:30 P.M. ET (ABC)
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Thunder: West Group B winner, 4-1 record, +59 point differential (W vs. Suns, L at Spurs, W at Lakers, W vs. Jazz, W vs. Mavericks)
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Rockets: West Group A winner, 4-1 record, +41 point differential (W vs. Clippers, W vs. Trail Blazers, W at Timberwolves, L at Kings, W vs. Warriors)
Two of the NBA’s four youngest rosters also feature the league’s two stingiest defenses — big, long, athletic, versatile, physical and angry outfits adept at either blowing up your sets to snuff out your best options or just strong-arming the ball away from you.
Oklahoma City has probably gotten more publicity in the early going, and understandably so. The Thunder have outpaced the league’s average defensive unit by enough that, when you adjust for era, they’re running neck and neck with Tim Duncan’s 2003-04 Spurs for the best defense since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, according to Jared Dubin at Last Night in Basketball. Udoka’s relentless Rockets aren’t far off that pace, though, sitting just outside the top 10 by that adjusted efficiency metric, and just outside the top five since 2000, according to PBP Stats.
The two teams have split their two meetings this season. OKC posted a blowout win in November, thanks in part to 29 points from the now-injured Chet Holmgren. Houston got its lick back two weeks ago in a 119-116 thriller featuring 16 ties, seven lead changes, Fred VanVleet exploding for 38 points in 35 minutes and a wild final few minutes full of playoff-level intensity:
That’s the only game Oklahoma City has lost since Isaiah Hartenstein made his season debut; the Thunder have outscored opponents by a monster 14.6 points per 100 possessions with the 7-footer on the floor. Crucially, they’ve also rebounded 72.4% of opponents’ missed shots with Hartenstein in the lineup, a defensive rebounding rate that would rank just outside the top five for the full season, welding shut the one glaring crack in OKC’s defensive armor.
Hartenstein will have his hands full holding off a Rockets team that leads the NBA in offensive rebounding rate — and, more specifically, with Houston big man Alperen Şengün. The 22-year-old took it to Draymond Green and an elite Warriors defense in the quarterfinals, and is one of just five players in the league averaging 18 points, 10 rebounds and five assists per game this season. (Three of them, coincidentally, will play in Vegas on Saturday: Şengün, Antetokounmpo and the Hawks’ Johnson.)
With two defenses this talented and tenacious, the difference could come down to shot-making. No team wins the possession battle more consistently and effectively than Houston — the main reason why the Rockets have fielded an above-average offense despite ranking in the bottom third of the league in field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free-throw percentage and assist rate. But the Rockets are facing a Thunder team that turns the ball over less frequently than they do, forces turnovers more often than they do and shoots better than they do at all three levels — all led by MVP candidate Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s on pace for his third season of averaging 30-plus points per game on better than .600 true shooting (which factors in 2-point, 3-point and free-throw accuracy). The only players in NBA history with more than three? Michael Jordan and Adrian Dantley.
Gilgeous-Alexander will be the best player on the court Saturday. The task facing his Canadian national teammate Dillon Brooks, “Terror Twins” Tari Eason and Amen Thompson, and the rest of that snarling Rockets defense? Dim the superstar’s shine enough to turn the semifinal matchup into the kind of heavyweight prize-fight that Vegas is known for — and then land one more punch than the other guy.
What comes next?
The winners of Saturday’s single-elimination semifinal games will advance to the NBA Cup championship game, which will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, airing on ABC. That championship game will be the only one in the entire tournament that won’t also count toward participants’ regular-season records and statistics. For those two teams, it will count as Game 83.
Just making the knockout round guaranteed every player on the participating teams a payout; to the winners, though, go greater spoils, with the tournament champion taking home the biggest bank.
For the inaugural in-season tournament, the prize pool operated in nice round numbers: $50,000 for each player on teams that lose in the quarterfinals; $100,000 for players on teams that lose in the semifinals; $200,000 for players on the team that loses in the final game; and a crisp $500,000 for everyone on the team that hoists the NBA Cup. The math’s a little wonkier this year, thanks to a passage in the collective bargaining agreement between the NBA and its players union stipulating that those prize payouts rise by a “growth factor” tied to any increase in the basketball-related income (BRI) that the league generates.
BRI went up from last season to this one; ergo, so have the payouts:
(Granted: not quite as clean as all those zeroes on last year’s winnings. Somehow, though, I don’t think the players will mind.)
Win on Tuesday night, and you take home the whole showcase: the NBA Cup and whatever bragging rights go with it, plus that $514,971 winner’s purse for each player. Which, as holiday bonuses go? Pretty decent.
