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The Philadelphia Eagles are a fascinating study in how fast things can turn sour in the NFL.
From the start of the 2022 season through Week 12 last season, the Eagles were 26-5 including playoffs. They were considered a shining example of supreme roster building — the easiest thing to find in NFL media is someone offering ridiculously over-the-top praise for Eagles GM Howie Roseman, though he’s undeniably one of the NFL’s best — and seemingly a rock solid stock in which to invest. They were 10-1 to start last season and while that was propped up a bit by some close wins, you don’t go 10-1 in the NFL by being lucky.
And from that point to the end of the season, the Eagles suddenly became one of the worst teams in the NFL. They lost six of their last seven, including a first-round playoff loss. Less than two months after that 10-1 start, and less than a year after barely losing a Super Bowl, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni almost was fired. The Eagles had a reported dalliance with former Patriots coach Bill Belichick. Sirianni was retained, but in a new structure that severely diminished his control, especially over the offense.
The way the Eagles season ended was beyond shocking. They started their slide by losing to the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys by 23 and 20 points, respectively. They allowed Seattle Seahawks backup quarterback Drew Lock to drive his team 92 yards in the final two minutes for a touchdown and another loss. They blew a 21-6 halftime lead and lost at home against the Arizona Cardinals, who would finish with a 4-13 record. Then they got blasted 32-9 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a wild-card playoff game.
Inexplicably, for their last seven games the Eagles might have been a bottom-five team in the NFL. The secondary looked slow and couldn’t cover anyone. The run defense fell apart too. The passing game led by Jalen Hurts failed to reach even 200 yards in six of its last 10 games. There was a weird vibe around Hurts and his teammates, and around the Eagles as a whole. By the time the Eagles folded the tent in that wholly uncompetitive loss to the Buccaneers, they looked like a team that couldn’t wait for the offseason so they could part ways.
“Obviously, we were in a big slide, and any time that’s the case I always look at myself first,” Sirianni said, via Fox Sports. “I didn’t do a good enough job. It was almost like we couldn’t get out of the rut we were in, and that’s all of us. We’ll have to look ourselves in the mirror and accept that and find answers, find solutions.”
The immediate future will include Sirianni, but it’s awkward now. A media conference to announce his return was delayed as he met with Roseman, and after that meeting reporters were told that a new offensive coordinator would oversee the offense, which Sirianni had done. Sirianni will be more of a CEO head coach going forward. Sirianni said it was his idea to give up control of the offense to new coordinator Kellen Moore, including game planning.
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“You have to do what you think is best for the team, right? And I think that’s selflessness, right?” Sirianni told AllPHLY.com. “Regardless of how much I love something, it’s what’s best for the team and in this case, what was best for the team is that. I brought Kellen in, I let him run with the offense. We share some thoughts, and he goes with it and so that’s what I felt was best for the team.”
Moore takes over the offense. Vic Fangio is the new defensive coordinator. The Eagles missed 2022 coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon last season, and a big change at both spots was inevitable after the collapse. Having two big names in the coordinator positions turns the heat up on Sirianni another notch.
The Eagles enter this season with an obviously talented roster and a pedigree that included a stretch winning 26 of 31 games, including an NFC championship, but with a coach who barely hung onto his job and unresolved questions over what went suddenly wrong. It’s hard to believe Philadelphia will fall too far. Then again, the putrid version of the Eagles that we saw from Week 13 on last season was unfathomable too.
The Eagles could win a Super Bowl and it wouldn’t be a shock. They have the talent for it. It also wouldn’t be too surprising to see Sirianni fired by Halloween if the Eagles play like they did last December and January. Any outcome seems possible for the 2024 Eagles, good or bad. Life comes at you fast, especially in the NFL.
Offseason grade
Because there’s an infatuation with Howie Roseman, the Eagles’ offseason got a lot of praise (though not as much as last season when the Eagles’ consensus draft grade was better than 4.0 … seriously). The Eagles’ draft this year got the third-highest consensus grade. Philadelphia did a good job addressing a glaring need at cornerback by drafting Quinyon Mitchell in the first round and Cooper DeJean in the second. Mitchell, considered by some the best defensive player in the draft class, should start right away and DeJean should contribute on defense and as a returner. The Eagles had a lot of big news among veterans. Center Jason Kelce and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox retired, which will hurt. Both players could land in the Pro Football Hall of Fame (Kelce seems like a lock, and Cox has a case). The Eagles’ big free agency additions were up-and-coming pass rusher Bryce Huff and running back Saquon Barkley. Barkley replaces D’Andre Swift, who signed with the Bears. The Eagles traded pass rusher Haason Reddick to the Jets after signing Huff away from them. The Barkley signing (three years, $37.75 million) was surprising because the Eagles have rarely invested in running back, and is a sign that they think Barkley is a special player. Other additions like safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and linebacker Devin White could help the defense. The Eagles also made a low-cost trade for quarterback Kenny Pickett, a former first-rounder who wasn’t wanted in Pittsburgh anymore. The Eagles did pretty well, even though the praise for the offseason was predictably excessive.
Grade: A-
Quarterback report
Jalen Hurts was a popular MVP pick late in the 2022 season and probably would have won it if not for an injury. He followed that up with a spectacular Super Bowl performance, though it came in a loss. Hurts’ play dipped to start 2023 but he was still productive. Then his play, like the Eagles’ fortunes as a whole, took a big drop late in the season. Over the final six regular season games, Hurts had a passer rating of just 77.6. For a player who had improved nearly every season dating back to his freshman season at Alabama, his step back was surprising. Hurts didn’t do himself any favors when, after a loss to the Seahawks, he said “I don’t think we all were committed enough.” There were plenty of questions about Hurts and his relationship with his teammates, though that can be an overreaction when a team is on a merciless skid in a pressurized media market.
Hurts clearly suffered from the loss of offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who got the Colts’ head coaching job last offseason. Hurts’ turnovers skyrocketed (he had 15 interceptions and five lost fumbles), he was less effective as a rusher outside of “tush push” attempts, defenses started to take away the run-pass option, and Hurts didn’t handle frequent blitzes well. (Yahoo Sports’ Nate Tice had a thorough breakdown of what went wrong for Hurts last season.) Kellen Moore is the Eagles’ new offensive coordinator and he should be a big upgrade over Brian Johnson, last season’s Eagles coordinator who didn’t seem ready for the job. Getting Hurts back to his MVP form is the biggest priority the Eagles have this season.
BetMGM odds breakdown
Oddsmakers aren’t worried at all about the Eagles. Only four teams have better Super Bowl odds at BetMGM than the Eagles, who are +1400. They’re a pretty significant -120 favorite to win the NFC East, ahead of the Cowboys at +150. Their win total of 10.5 is one of the highest in the NFL. If you looked at the odds, you’d think the final seven games of the last Eagles season never happened.
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Saquon Barkley won’t miss toiling with the undermanned Giants, but the shift to Philadelphia might not be all sunshine and lollipops, either. Jalen Hurts has become an unstoppable goal-line force through the Tush Push and it’s unlikely the Eagles will stop featuring that play; that obviously hurts Barkley’s touchdown equity. Barkley hasn’t made it through a full season since 2018, his rookie year, and his efficiency metrics in the passing game are headed in the wrong direction. The early Yahoo draft market has pushed Barkley to the 12-13 turn, and that’s a price I’m unlikely to pay.”
Stat to remember
In 2022, the Eagles defense had 70 sacks. That was a team record and just two off the single-season NFL record. Then in 2023, the Eagles fell to 43 sacks, tied for 19th best in the NFL. Some regression was due after a ridiculous 2022 season in the sack department, but that was extreme. The Eagles reacted by signing pass rusher Bryce Huff to a three-year, $51.1 million deal. Huff is a bit risky after a big breakout with the Jets. Huff, who was undrafted, had 7.5 sacks his first three seasons combined and then 10 last season. But advanced metrics indicate he was one of the NFL’s best pass rushers last season; his sack total wasn’t a fluke. With Huff coming in, Haason Reddick went out. Reddick, who had double-digit sacks in four straight seasons, was traded to the Jets.
Rediscovering the pass rush would help the defense. New blood at cornerback might as well. Vic Fangio’s sudden departure from the Miami Dolphins included rumblings that he didn’t get along with the players, but he has a long track record of success. The Eagles were bad on defense last season, finishing 29th in defensive DVOA and 29th in passer rating allowed. Any team that voluntarily has Matt Patricia call defensive plays, as the Eagles did late last season, is down pretty bad. But perhaps with some changes, Philly’s defense can rebound quickly.
Burning question
Will Saquon Barkley change the Eagles’ offense?
Howie Roseman’s Eagles helped the movement toward devaluing running backs. Over the past few years, the Eagles have rarely had a brand-name running back, opting for cheaper options and mostly a committee approach. That’s why it was a surprise the Eagles signed Barkley to a three-year, $37.75 million deal. Barkley was one of the best running back prospects ever coming out of Penn State and had a monster rookie season with an NFL-best 2,028 yards from scrimmage. However, he hasn’t played at that level since. He has been good but not quite the superstar he was expected to be. Maybe that’s because the Giants weren’t good enough around him. Now Barkley gets to run behind one of the NFL’s best lines. If Barkley still has a season like his rookie year in him, we should see it in Philadelphia.
The Eagles might lean on Barkley more than any other back they’ve had the past few years, but the strength of their offense is still at receiver. A.J. Brown has a three-year, $96 million deal and Devonta Smith has a three-year, $75 million deal. That should tell you where their priorities lie. But we’ll see plenty of Barkley too, and perhaps that will mean a few less Jalen Hurts goal line carries or running opportunities in general. It’s hard to say, because this is the first time in a while the Eagles have had a back like Barkley.
Best case scenario
It’s possible that all the Eagles needed was a coordinator change on both sides. When the Eagles made Matt Patricia their defensive play-caller late last season, it was a cry for help. And it went exactly how anyone who knew Patricia’s history guessed it would go. Going from Patricia to Vic Fangio is about as big of an upgrade as you’ll see. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should inject new life into the offense, which opposing defenses figured out late last season. Jalen Hurts was an MVP frontrunner less than two calendar years ago, A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are perhaps the best 1-2 receiver combination in the NFL, Saquon Barkley might have a huge season now that he finally has an offensive line to block for him, and the defense could be pretty good again. The Eagles went 14-3 two seasons ago and lost a fourth-quarter lead in the Super Bowl. The 2024 Eagles could replicate that, but with a Super Bowl win at the end.
Nightmare scenario
Not all losing streaks are the same. Some, like the Bills in the middle of last season, happen due to close and somewhat unlucky losses. There wasn’t anything unlucky about the Eagles’ slide late last season. They were unquestionably bad. It’s possible that Bryce Huff is a one-year wonder that cost a lot of money, rookies don’t fix the secondary and the defense doesn’t rebound. The offense, which lost stellar center Jason Kelce, might have been solved by NFL teams and coordinator Kellen Moore can’t fix it. This strangely seems like a pivotal season for Jalen Hurts in determining if he’s great or just good. You wouldn’t take a look at the Eagles roster and believe it could ever be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but we saw it happen over a nearly two-month stretch. If the Eagles get off to a slow start, Nick Sirianni might not survive the season. Or half of the season.
The crystal ball says …
The Eagles are incredibly hard to figure out. I’d understand if anyone had them ranked in the top five of the NFL. It’s just hard to shake how bad they were late last season. Go back and watch them get completely outclassed by a mediocre Buccaneers team in the playoffs for proof. It was an utter failure at every level of the organization. And don’t discount the losses of Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox. We’ll see how the Eagles respond to Nick Sirianni, who is on the hot seat. It’s possible the Eagles are the best team in the NFL this season. But until they show that the finish to the 2023 season was a fluke, let’s pencil them in for second in the NFC East, but with a wild-card berth.
