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If you’d have asked any Detroit Lions fan through the years for the probability they’d ever see their team in the Super Bowl, the answer surely would not have been 90%. It might not have been 9%. Maybe not even 0.9%.
But during the third quarter of last season’s NFC championship game, the Lions’ win probability reached 90.4%, according to Next Gen Stats. The Lions led 24-10. They’d just picked up a first down on a David Montgomery run. With less than nine minutes left in the third quarter, the Lions — the franchise of 0-16, Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson retiring rather than continuing to lose, not one Super Bowl appearance ever and just one playoff win from 1957 to last season — were seemingly on their way to a Super Bowl.
It changed in a blink. All of those searches for flight prices and hotel rooms in Las Vegas that were originating in Michigan abruptly ended. The 49ers got a stop on a questionable decision by Detroit to go for it on fourth down, had a miraculous long catch from Brandon Aiyuk, recovered a fumble by Jahmyr Gibbs and tied it 24-24. San Francisco won 34-31. The Lions weren’t the first team to blow a lead in a playoff game. But that seemed like it happened faster than any other memorable collapse. Or maybe it just seemed like it happened so fast because everyone knew the Lions, their history and what a Super Bowl would have meant.
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There are two ways the story can go from there. Either that’s the one that got away, a blown opportunity lamented forever by beaten-down Lions fans, or just one step on the journey to a Super Bowl and one of the great stories in American sports history (to be very clear, Detroit winning a Super Bowl absolutely would be on that list). The Lions didn’t sit around and feel sorry for themselves this offseason.
Detroit attacked its weaknesses. The Lions signed run-stopping defensive tackle D.J. Reader. To fix a cornerback problem, they signed Amik Robertson, traded for Carlton Davis III from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and drafted Terrion Arnold in the first round and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. in the second. They signed defensive end Marcus Davenport to help out Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions got close to the prize and tried to make sure they don’t fall short again.
Lions head coach Dan Campbell knows how fleeting it can all be though.
“I told those guys, this may have been our only shot,” Campbell said after the 49ers loss. “Do I think that? No. Do I believe that? No. But I know how hard it is to get here. I’m well aware, and it’s going to be twice as hard to get back to this point next year than it was this year. That’s the reality.”
Detroit also might have shortened its Super Bowl window. The Lions signed receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and offensive tackle Penei Sewell to contracts that were the highest ever at their positions when they were signed, and also signed Jared Goff to a four-year $212 million deal. Left tackle Taylor Decker got an extension worth $20 million per year as well. There’s nothing wrong with extending good players, but it makes it harder to build a championship roster.
There’s urgency. Not because of the contracts, though that’s a factor now. It’s because Lions fans have waited forever for this. They got close. The players have listened to Campbell’s challenge and are ready to go for the final step.
“It’s like, what do you want to accomplish as a team? I can truthfully say this year, it’s not even playoffs. It’s not the No. 1 seed. It’s the Super Bowl,” St. Brown said after the first training camp practice of the season, according to the team’s site. “I just feel like everyone in the room — and this is the first year I feel like truly as a team, we all feel the same way. We all want to win a Super Bowl. We know we can win the Super Bowl. We have the team, we have the coaches, we have everything we need in this building to win a Super Bowl, and that’s our goal. That’s our focus in everything we do from here on moving forward is to get that Super Bowl.”
There’s a lot of pressure on the Lions this season. Last season was a fun ride but replicating it won’t be good enough. There’s just one more place for Detroit to go. Maybe this is finally the season it happens.
Offseason grade
The Lions did well to identify what needed to be fixed and made strong moves to rectify the issues. Cornerback was a big problem last season, and between Amik Robertson, Carlton Davis III, Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. they should be much better there. The Lions got very fortunate that Arnold slipped to them at the 24th pick. The defensive line should be better with free-agent additions Marcus Davenport and D.J. Reader. The team lost guard Jonah Jackson to the Rams but found a capable replacement in Kevin Zeitler. Perhaps the Lions will regret not finding another receiver after Josh Reynolds left in free agency, but that might not be a problem if 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams takes his flashes of talent and turns that into consistent production. Overall it was the kind of offseason that sets up the Lions to be even better than last season.
Grade: A-
Quarterback report
The best news of the offseason for Jared Goff was that Ben Johnson “wanted the sunshine a little bit longer.” Johnson, the Lions’ offensive coordinator, was in high demand for a head-coaching job this offseason but had a great reason for staying in Detroit: He experienced winning those playoff games last season and wanted to see it through with the Lions. Johnson took his name out of the head-coaching mix and the Lions had a hugely important piece back.
Johnson has been the Lions’ coordinator for two seasons and in each season Detroit finished in the top five of the NFL in yardage and points scored. Johnson is just 38 and his reputation is growing fast. He helped Goff revive his career after he was dumped by the Rams. Goff has 9,013 yards and 59 touchdowns the past two seasons. He became a fan favorite in Detroit and signed a $212 million deal with $170 million guaranteed. Goff fits Johnson’s offense very well and the continuity between the two is a huge factor for the 2024 Lions. With Johnson and most of the offense returning, Goff should put up another big season.
BetMGM odds breakdown
Detroit fans love betting on their teams, but the love for the Lions this season probably extends beyond Michigan. The Lions are fourth in the odds to win the Super Bowl (+1200) and second in the odds to win the NFC (+550) at BetMGM. Detroit is the second-most popular Super Bowl bet and the most popular bet to win the NFC. Of all the money bet on the NFC winner, a whopping 28.2% was on Detroit as of late June. Its win total of 10.5 is the third-most bet over on the board. Jared Goff’s MVP odds have also been dropping fast, from an opening number of 40-to-1 to 25-to-1. Given the recent history of quarterbacks from No. 1 seeds winning the MVP (12 of the past 15 MVPs were QBs from a top seed), Goff has a chance if the Lions have a big season.
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “I keep talking about wanting to build my fantasy teams around wide receivers, with an anchor running back to the side. One of the main reasons that strategy makes sense is because there’s such a deep pool of reasonably-priced RB2 candidates. David Montgomery is high on that target list.
“Obviously Montgomery isn’t going to have the Detroit backfield to himself; Jahmyr Gibbs is too good. But the Lions don’t have a running quarterback and they don’t feature any other running backs. Montgomery feels like a lock for double-digit touches every week and a high share of the goal-line equity. And obviously he’s working behind a dominant offensive line, perhaps the best unit in the league. Boring value isn’t the most exciting fantasy strategy, but it usually gets good mileage.”
Stat to remember
The Lions’ 2023 draft class was largely panned but if we were grading it now, Detroit is probably No. 1 on the list. The highlights were running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta, who became the first rookie teammates in NFL history to each record 10 touchdowns. Last season was the first time in Lions history they got 2,000 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns from their rookie class, and it all came from LaPorta and Gibbs. The Lions also got 95 tackles from linebacker Jack Campbell and 74 tackles and three interceptions from safety Brian Branch, who looks like a future Pro Bowler.
Gibbs and LaPorta elevate the offense. Gibbs split time with the effective David Montgomery (1,015 rushing yards and 13 TDs), though the Lions are promising a bigger role for him in his second season. Gibbs scored 14 touchdowns in his final 14 games, counting playoffs. LaPorta’s 86 catches set an NFL record for a rookie tight end. Between those two, Montgomery, elite receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and former first-round draft pick Jameson Williams, the Lions are loaded at the skill positions. And the Lions also have an offensive line that is considered to be the best in the NFL.
Burning question
Is the Lions’ defense Super Bowl worthy?
The Chiefs would not have won a Super Bowl last season without their elite defense. The 49ers made the Super Bowl not just due to Kyle Shanahan’s offense but also a top-five defense. There’s no question the Lions have a Super Bowl-level offense. It might end up being the best offense in the NFL this season. The question is if the defense is ready to do its part.
Detroit didn’t have a bad defense last season, but it needs to get better to reach the level of teams like the Chiefs and 49ers. The Lions gave up way too many big plays in the passing game to be a top defense. They gave up 69 20-yard passes last season, four more than any other NFL defense. For comparison, the Chiefs gave up 39, which tied for the best mark in the NFL. The Lions gave up the second-most yards per pass in the NFL. They tried to fix that by adding four cornerbacks: Amik Robertson, Carlton Davis III, Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. Aidan Hutchinson is one of the NFL’s best defensive ends and the Lions signed D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport to help him on the line. There is talent on the defense. If the results follow, the Lions could win it all this season.
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Best-case scenario
Get ready Lions fans, because for perhaps the first time before any NFL season we can say this with a straight face: This Detroit team can win a Super Bowl. The offense could be the best in the NFL, with a great line, an abundance of talent at the skill positions and a capable quarterback in Jared Goff. If the defense is better — it could be if first-round pick Terrion Arnold is an instant hit and Carlton Davis III rebounds from a bad season in Tampa Bay — then the Lions could be the best team in football. They finished 2022 with a lot of momentum and while 2023 ultimately ended in a big disappointment, the playoff wins gave Detroit confidence and took the Lions to a new level. And the offseason addressed the biggest roster questions. The Lions aren’t rebuilding anymore. They have arrived.
Nightmare scenario
We forget how close the Lions were to never being in that NFC championship game against the 49ers. The Rams trailed Detroit by one point and had the ball in the fourth quarter of the wild-card game. The Buccaneers were tied in the fourth quarter at Detroit in the divisional round. The Lions were good last season but not dominant. They threw a lot of numbers at the cornerback position but it’s possible the defense isn’t fixed and they’re not as balanced as a team like the 49ers. There’s not even a guarantee the Lions win their own division, with the Packers finishing last season very well (that included a win at Detroit on Thanksgiving) and the Bears improving rapidly. The Lions and their fans want another bite at the apple after the way last season ended, but this is the NFL. We all know that unless you’re the Chiefs, everything is a year-to-year proposition.
The crystal ball says …
One of the fairy tales in sports is a team loses in a championship round, then comes back the next season even more motivated and takes the next step to win a title. It doesn’t always happen that way. Maybe it’s foolish to believe the Lions will take that path, and perhaps it’s just falling in love with the story of Detroit finally making a Super Bowl, but I’m doing it. I believe this will be, at worst, a top-three offense this season and the defense will be much better. Dan Campbell is a plus coach who might be a little too reckless on fourth down but also motivates his team as well as anyone. And the Lions will be focused after last season’s disappointing finish. This isn’t something I thought I’d ever be typing at the end of a Lions preview, but I think this team makes history by advancing to the Super Bowl. And while I don’t have Detroit in the top spot of the power rankings, the Lions will be my pick to win Super Bowl LIX.
