It has never been more important for an NFL team to nail down the No. 1 seed in their division. The two No. 1’s are the only teams that get a first-round bye in the playoffs, while every other playoff team must battle it out to make it to the next week.
There’s a strange situation brewing at the top of the NFC right now. Three teams — the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings — could potentially tie for that all-important No. 1 seed. Right now, all three of those teams are 12-2 with three games left to play. If they all win the same number of games over the next three weeks, the NFL will have to rely on its tiebreaking procedures to determine which team actually gets the bye.
How the NFL breaks three-way ties
The NFL has 12 criteria in place to break three-way ties (which are the same as the 12 steps to break any two-way ties). It begins with the teams’ records in games against each other and continues through various scenarios. If the tie still hasn’t been broken after the first 11 criteria, the 12th step is a coin toss. If any of the three teams is eliminated during any of the steps, the three-way tie rules will no longer apply and the two remaining teams will begin at step one of the two-way tie rules.
Here are the 12 steps to break a three-way tie in the NFL:
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Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
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Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
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Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
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Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
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Strength of victory in all games.
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Strength of schedule in all games.
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Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
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Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
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Best net points in common games.
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Best net points in all games.
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Best net touchdowns in all games.
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Coin toss
How would this apply to the Eagles, Lions and Vikings?
Steps one and two of the tiebreaking procedures would not apply, as the Eagles (NFC East) are not in the same division as the Lions and Vikings (NFC North).
Step No. 3 concerns games all three teams have played against the same opponent. In 2024, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Green Bay Packers are the only teams the Eagles, Lions and Vikings have all faced. As of Dec. 17, all three teams have won every game they’ve played against the Jags and Packers (though Minnesota faces the Packers again on Dec. 29).
That brings us to step No. 4, conference games. As of Dec. 17, the Eagles have two conference losses (Week 2 against the Atlanta Falcons, Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers). The Vikings also have two conference losses (Week 7 against the Detroit Lions, Week 8 against the Los Angeles Rams). Only the Lions have one conference loss (Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), as their Week 15 loss was to the AFC North’s Buffalo Bills.
If the season ended right now, those conference losses would determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. And the Lions would own the tiebreaker over the Eagles and Vikings, making them the No. 1 seed.
But with three games left, the only way there could still be a three-way tie after Week 18 is if all three teams lose one game. The Vikings and Lions play each other in Week 18, so only one of those teams has a chance to win all of its remaining games. If the Eagles also win out, there would then be a two-way tie at the top of the NFC. But if all three teams go 2-1 — meaning the winner of Vikings-Lions would have to lose one of their other two games — then there would be three 14-3 teams atop the NFC.
