NFL things I’m excited to watch, from new kickoff rules to Steelers’ sophomores and an intriguing DB shell

The Hall of Fame Game is tonight! We have football again! We did it!

Excitement, hope and curiosity are what make the NFL offseason so great. Whether it’s about a team, a unit, a coach, a player or even something league-wide, until the ball is in the air, we are all just left theorizing and guessing.

I wanted to touch on a few of those things that have me excited about throughout this NFL season, or at least things that I’m keeping tabs on. From a rule change to a defensive meta to a batch of sophomore players from the Steelers.

Football is on our doorstep so now it’s time to see if that excitement was justified. (It always is.)

Kickoffs!

This is something I’m going to keep a tab on starting tonight during the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, and keep that tab open as the weeks go on during the season. The new kickoff rules are going to be an adjustment for fans, and for coaches and players, too. The NFL overhauled their kickoff rules into a hybrid form of the XFL’s rules introduced during their 2020 spring season.

Here’s a refresher, courtesy of Yahoo Sports Senior NFL Reporter Jori Epstein:

• The kicking team will still kick from the 35-yard line, but players on the kicking team will line up at the opponent’s 40. Those players cannot move, and the kicker himself cannot cross the 50, until the ball hits the ground or a receiving player in the “landing zone” (from the goal line to the 20) or end zone

• The receiving team must have a minimum of nine players lined up in the “setup zone” (between the 30- and 35-yard lines) with a maximum of two returners lined up in the landing zone

• Any kick that hits the landing zone must be returned, while any kick that bounces into the end zone from the landing zone must either be returned or downed by the receiving team for a touchback to the 20-yard line

• Any kick short of the landing zone gives possession to the receiving team at its own 40; any kick that hits the end zone and is downed is a touchback to the 30; and any kick that goes out of the back of the end zone is also a touchback to the 30

• There are no more fair catches

• There are no onside kicks until the fourth quarter begins and a team is trailing, and current onside kick rules would apply

• Kickoffs after safeties will be from the 20, and the kicker will have the option to use a tee; setup and landing zones will not change

• Penalties that carry over to kickoffs would only impact the spot of the kick, not the setup or landing zones and not where players line up

Special teams coaches around the NFL are flying blind without much to guide them here, outside of studying film from the XFL and UFL and hoping they can adapt those to the new hybrid rules and to the speed of NFL players.

We’ll see spread-out versions of run concepts that are typical on a Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Teams will experiment, then continue to refine and tweak as the best methods get copied and built upon throughout the league.

What kind of method do special team coaches and kickers think is best to attack the new return blocking and yard placement rules? Do they just boot the ball through the end zone and give up field position at the 30-yard line, where touchbacks are placed now, rather than try to stomach another return that can break well past the 30? (The frequency of returns is the big push by the rule changes here.) How do kickers kick the ball off? Mortar-style for perfect placement? A line drive, since no one can move until the returner has the ball anyways? Or do they try to knuckleball the kickoff and try to make the return go askew?

That personnel usage really does fascinate me, too. Teams will be back to having two returners, and returners have a chance to make a real impact on the game again. What kind of blockers end up being ideal for this? What kind of post-snap movement ends up being the meta around the league?

How this unfolds during preseason, and whether coaches try to keep things close to the vest during these exhibition games or try to get reps at what they’re actually going to do once the games start to count, is also going to vary wildly from team to team, and should make for an interesting August (and beyond).

Rams offensive line

I felt like I had just jotted down the Rams offensive line here when I saw news of guard Jonah Jackson’s injury.

Even with the talented Jackson’s injury, which sadly could have been expected considering his play history, I am still excited to see this unit (and entire offense, really) in action this season.

The Rams have a lot of mutton along their starting five up front. They’ve emphasized size and brawn with their linemen and preferred play style, part of their transformation from a zone-heavy run scheme into a more duo-centric at you style that wants to mow everything down in their path. They currently feature a center in Steve Avila that is listed near 340 pounds and the third-heaviest starting offensive line in the league (behind only the Bengals and Eagles), according to Trench Warfare’s Brandon Thorn.

And frankly, I dig it. Not only because it appeals to my football dogma when it comes to personnel and offensive philosophy, but because it is exactly where I think offenses can find an advantage against the current defensive landscape featuring chaotic speed before and after the snap of the football.

That defensive speed comes with a flip side. While yes, I’d wager that NFL defenses are faster than they’ve ever been, the personnel is also getting lighter and smaller than ever before:

The adjustments that Sean McVay makes every season is one of my favorite things to watch unfold during an NFL season. With a solidified identity that starts with pounding the rock and Mattew Stafford throwing trick shots on all the other plays, the Rams have a chance to be an elite-tier offense with their offensive line leading the way.

3-safety shells of Giants …

Charles McDonald and I went over our predictions for the top 10 NFL defenses on a recent episode of the Football 301 podcast (out now! Corporate synergy!), and I ended up including the Giants defense at the number 10 spot.

This was a bit of a heat check take, and the Giants are way more likely to be around average this year than top 10. But this defense has a talented front that can both stop the run and get after the quarterback, and while the defensive backfield is littered with youth and unproven players, new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen does interesting things with his defensive shells (i.e. how the defensive backs are aligned) that I think is a great counter to the plethora of motion and in-breaking routes that the Kyle Shanahan disciples (and others) use throughout the league. And it’s something that I think we will see more of from more teams this season and beyond.

Here is a clip of Bowen’s Titans defense last year,. Watch Amani Hooker (No. 37) on the play.

Shanahan offenses, like what the Dolphins use under head coach Mike McDaniel, like to package plays together and use motion to open up large voids to attack for their run game and quarterbacks. Packaging plays, which is when the offense puts two or more playcalls together and then has the quarterback get to the best option based on the defensive look, often will be dictated based on the defensive shell.

For example, Cover 3 and Cover 1 typically will have, if the defense is static, an extra defender rotated down to start in the box. This will naturally limit certain run plays because of number count (one extra defender means one extra blocker, or there has to be at least something to account for him) and make other plays better.

Offenses have variables on which they can base how they choose which play to run, but one of the most common is defensive shell. Single-high coverages like Cover 3 and Cover 1 mean this play. Two-high coverages like Cover 2 or Cover 4 mean that play. And a blitz look from the defense might have a whole different line of operation for the offense.

What defenses have started to do, at least the Titans and Cardinals last year, is put a defensive back between where the linebackers are aligned and where two deep defensive backs are situated. This defensive player, based on the defensive call, is able to be a rover and situate himself based on the final formation. They essentially moved a linebacker back a few steps to give him the freedom to insert himself wherever is needed.

This also lets the defense get to a totally different coverage than the one they presented before the snap. This takes away, or at least helps limit, the advantage that offenses can get with using motion, and changing the offensive formation, right at the snap of the ball. The defense can bait the play call into a bad look or fool the quarterback into throwing the ball into a covered area.

This variety has me excited about what Bowen can do in New York, especially since he has solid linebacker play with Bobby Okereke and a front with size and teeth led by all-world nose tackle Dexter Lawrence. But outside of Lawrence, this defense also has Kayvon Thibodeaux and the newly acquired Brian Burns to heat things up on the edge. The defensive back room has a future star in Deonte Banks and potentially two rookies starting. So, while I think the young defensive backfield will take their lumps early on in the season, they do have a very good, potentially elite front to help make their lives a bit easier. With Bowen dialing this up, I think they will rapidly improve as the season goes along.

… and Cardinals

This use of defensive backs is not new, mind you, but there’s more of an emphasis on it. Another team, who I’ll call a frisky and interesting defense rather than top 10, is the Cardinals’ dust devil attack led by the youngest defensive coordinator in the NFL, Nick Rallis.

Even though Bowen prefers a four-down front and Rallis works out of three-down looks, how they are using their defensive backs has similarities. Rallis worked with probably the worst defensive personnel in the league last year, but did his best to try and do something to make lives hard on NFL offenses.

The main way he did it was to use Budda Baker in that rover role and try to change the picture as much as possible after the snap.

Baker had even more freedom to fly down and fill the run, because the Cardinals’ three-down front only featuring one stand-up linebacker behind them. On any given snap, Baker could be a de facto middle defender, deep half defender, or inside linebacker. But he doesn’t indicate his final form until right at the snap of the ball. This type of late movement lets the Cardinals get to a better defensive position than if they were in a standard front with their defenders static at five yards off the ball. Baker starting with depth allows more freedom of movement.

This can create advantages for the angles to combat the run game, but it also creates issues for some quarterbacks, especially below-average and inexperienced quarterbacks, as their pre-snap read gets swallowed up and they’re forced to progress through the play.

Here the Cardinals show a Cover 3 look with Baker as the deep safety before rotating to Cover 2 with Baker rotating down as the middle seam defender, and Jalen Thompson and Garrett Williams (who was fantastic at the Cardinals training camp practices I attended) rotating from intermediate zone defenders to deep half players.

For the visual learners, this:

Became this:

And it led to a short gain, creating a second-and-long for the offense.

This role inversion happens throughout the Cardinals defense. Zaven Collins got moved to an outside linebacker role, and Rallis will use his tweener skillset to do everything from rush the passer to running with tight ends and slot receivers down the field as a middle coverage defender.

Even other unheralded players had real strong moments last season. Nose tackle Roy Lopez, a player the Texans waived and started the season on the Cardinals’ practice squad, looked like a good starter so many times that I kept double-checking the roster to make sure it was him. Linebacker Kyzir White was looking like an all-pro for the first half of the season before an injury cost him the rest of the year. Linebacker Dennis Gardeck looked straight-up unblockable at times. Here he is taking it to the 49ers, including Trent Williams (!), on back-to-back plays:

The Cardinals (and Giants) are likely a year away from being consistently good. But I’m keeping an eye on the process they’re going through, and whether other teams in this copycat league start to copy some of these looks.

Steelers’ second-year players

It’s still very, very, very early. But the Steelers looked like they crushed their 2023 draft class.

Joey Porter Jr. was a rotational player during his rookie season until playing 53 snaps in Week 5, then earning his first start the following week. The physical and tenacious Porter thrived from then on, and now gives the Steelers their best starting cornerback in years.

No matter the assignment, Porter never backed down. His battle with DeAndre Hopkins, one of the most physical and strongest wide receivers in the NFL, in Week 9 was a treat to watch. It was a seldom-seen hoss fight between a cornerback and wide receiver.

That’s the type of size, mentality and competitiveness that Porter brings on each play, so it’s no surprise he fit right in in Yinzerland.

Along the defensive line, the Steelers tabbed Keeanu Benton in the second round. Despite playing only 43% of the Steelers snaps on defense last year, Benton made an impact.

I’m not going to mince words here: I think Benton is going to be a star. Not just a super role player or fun niche guy for film nerds to trade clips over on X. An actual Pro Bowl-caliber player to add to the Steelers’ already dangerous front. Benton is explosive with the size to play along the interior of the defense as a two-gapper that can hold his own or shooting the gap at the snap of the ball. He’s strong enough to anchor against the run, but can instantly win with a mauling pass-rush style that will swim past one or sometimes two blockers to create pressure on the quarterback.

While Benton only finished with one sack during his first year, he was still impacting the passer plenty, and finished with eight quarterback hits.

Nick Herbig followed Benton from Wisconsin to Pittsburgh, and he also had flashes as a designated pass-rush type on limited snaps, finishing with three sacks on fewer than 200 total snaps in his rookie year. He can be a valuable rotational rusher this year, adding a fourth edge defender that can get after the quarterback along with the excellent trio of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Markus Golden.

On offense, the Steelers drafted Broderick Jones in the 2023 first round, a player with excellent tools who was always going to need some time to learn how to use them. Jones was up and down as a rookie, which is to be expected. But the flashes he did show are extremely encouraging for the Steelers’ future blindside protector. How Jones and the rest of the Steelers’ young line play this season will mean a lot to their success.

The last sophomore player I wanted to mention is Darnell Washington, a jumbo tight end that can collapse a defensive edge with his blocking, Washington couldn’t have asked for a better offensive coordinator for his skill set than Arthur Smith, who I’m sure will have a lot of fun using Washington’s in-line blocking ability to lead the way in their run game.

QB/RB run game duos in Indy and Baltimore

This one is pretty simple, and pretty obvious. But I still want to say it: I cannot wait to see the fast quarterback with the big running back. And I want to see it a lot.

Statistically and stylistically, former Ravens running back Gus Edwards and current Ravens back Derrick Henry are a lot alike. They’re obviously both big backs, with Henry being the ultimate version of Edwards. They’re both monsters in short yardage; since 2020, Edwards only ranks behind Derrick Henry in short-yardage rushing conversion rate (third or fourth down and 1-2 yards to go), converting on 82.6% of his 46 short-yardage runs.

Neither does much in the passing game besides catching screens (Henry’s Juggernaut running style has made him a devastating player on screens) and both are actually below-average pass protectors despite their size. So there isn’t a lot of imagination needed to see what this might look like. I just know that it’s going to look better because, despite hitting the dreaded 30 years of age, Henry does what Edwards does, but better. It’s going to be a tremendous pairing of the most thunder running back with the most lightning quarterback, Lamar Jackson, in Baltimore.

For the Colts, Anthony Richardson was only on the field for two plays with Jonathan Taylor last year, a stat that makes me sadder and sadder every time I read it. We saw glimpses of what this run game could be last year, including on Richardson’s back-to-back touchdowns against the Texans, and the Colts finished eighth in rushing DVOA and 13th in EPA per early down rush despite most of the snaps featuring Gardner Minshew at QB and/or Zack Moss at RB.

Richardson and Taylor in the backfield gives this offense a Mario mushroom. Actually, more like a Mario fire flower. With Shane Steichen calling plays and a solid Colts offensive line up front, this run game has a chance to get hot early.

Time for some one-liners to wrap this up. With this Packers group, it’s like picking between children. All of them have different qualities and limitations (which is kind of the point of how they built these wide receiver and tight end rooms). Any week, one of Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave or Tucker Kraft might be THE guy that blows up. It might end up frustrating for fantasy owners, but I’m excited to see how this all shakes out and how the pecking order ends up looking in the tailend of the season.

Bears back 7

This unit is going to rock. Running coverages and a defense with detail and good players (I rate 11 of the main 12 Bears defenders as above-average or better starters) is a good formula for a good defense. I think the Bears linebackers, which features three quality players, and the defensive back room are going to make life tough on a lot of quarterbacks as they squeeze every throw like a boa constrictor over the middle of the field.

Buccaneers OL boost

Tristan Wirfs is one of the best tackles in the game, and just agreed to the richest offensive lineman deal in league history. Luke Goedeke is one of my nominees for breakout players this year. But the Bucs’ run game was bad last year. Like, really, really bad.

Hopefully there is some improvement from right guard Cody Mauch, who had a rough rookie year. But rookie center Graham Barton is going to be a solidifying force for this front, and should have a booster effect on his teammates along the line. Not to put too much on a rookie on the offensive line, but I think Barton’s talent and intelligence will let him hit the ground running, and help the Bucs do the same.

Mike Zimmer third down defenses

Mike Zimmer is back! And get ready for those third-down blitz looks. Training camp clips from Cowboys practices have already featured his patented double-mug pressure looks with two linebackers aligned over each shoulder of the center (could that be Micah Parsons this year?).

Zimmer consistently had some of the best third down defenses when in Minnesota. I think that trend continues in Dallas with him as defensive coordinator.