As the NFL regular season nears its end, there’s a big gap between the best teams in the league and the ones praying for the offseason to get here already.
Many teams are either severely devoid of talent, beat up by injuries or both. That’s a reason favorites did well last week. Favorites were 11-5 against the spread. Over the last three weeks of the season, it will be hard to take some of the big underdogs who look like they’ve already packed it in.
Here’s a look at Week 16 of the NFL season from a betting perspective, with all the odds from BetMGM:
Thursday night: Chargers favored over Broncos
The point spread for Thursday night’s game refuses to budge to Los Angeles Chargers -3 against the Denver Broncos, which is telling. The Chargers are holding as 2.5-point favorites. NFL bettors know that three is a key number, and as of Thursday morning oddsmakers had refused to give the Broncos a full field goal. A line of Chargers -2.5 seems to be trying to entice bettors to take Los Angeles.
That might be because of last week. The Broncos didn’t even play well but beat the Colts 31-13. Meanwhile, the Chargers got drubbed 40-17 at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chargers won the first meeting between the teams, but a sweep will be difficult.
We’re to the point in the season in which there are Saturday games. We get the four Christmas Day teams facing off, so they’re all on equal rest when they all play next Wednesday. In the first game, the Houston Texans play at the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes’ status was in question coming into the week, but with full practices on Tuesday and Wednesday, it seems he’ll play. That’s why the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites. The Chiefs have had trouble covering spreads this season but did cover last week.
The second game could end up deciding the AFC North. The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers and are a fairly strong 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh would clinch the division with a win, while the Ravens would get back into a first-place tie if they win. The Steelers won the first matchup 18-16, their eighth win in nine tries over Baltimore. For as one-sided as the rivalry as been and how close Ravens-Steelers games usually are, the large spread is a bit surprising.
New QB: Falcons are a big favorite this week
Michael Penix Jr. gets his first shot to start in the NFL, and the Atlanta Falcons found a soft landing spot for him. The rookie takes on the New York Giants, who have looked dreadful for weeks. Penix has never thrown a meaningful NFL pass and the Falcons have looked bad for weeks, but Atlanta is still an 8.5-point favorite. The big spread is due to the Giants’ ineptitude, the Falcons likely rallying around Penix in his first start and the fact that Penix can’t be much of a downgrade over the struggling Kirk Cousins.
There has been an interesting line movement. The line jumped from Falcons -8.5 to -10 on Tuesday morning, when it was clear the Falcons were considering a quarterback change. The change was made and the line eventually got bet back down to 8.5. It’s still surprising to see such a large line for an untested rookie quarterback replacing a veteran late in the season, but it’s understandable.
Player prop of the week: Sam LaPorta receiving yards
The loss of David Montgomery is huge to the Detroit Lions, and that will shift more of the offense to Jahmyr Gibbs. But the Lions have said they don’t want to overwork Gibbs. That might mean more for the receivers. That includes tight end Sam LaPorta.
LaPorta hasn’t had a huge season but is coming off a big seven-catch, 111-yard game. That was due in large part to a game script in which the Lions were chasing the Buffalo Bills and passing a lot. It makes sense for the Lions to keep feeding him though. The Chicago Bears haven’t been a tough matchup for opposing tight ends and the pass defense as a whole has struggled lately. LaPorta is even odds to reach 50 yards against the Bears. That seems reasonable. Jared Goff to throw for 300 yards at +188 odds also seems reachable.
Interesting underdog: 49ers are road favorites at Miami
There are reasons to believe the San Francisco 49ers should be favored at the Miami Dolphins. They’re on a little bit of extra rest. Analytics still believe the 49ers are better than their 6-8 record. But what have the 49ers done this season to be a 1-point favorite on the road against any decent team?
San Francisco is perhaps the biggest disappointment in the league, and last week’s 12-6 loss to the Rams probably wrecked any faint playoff hopes. It’s hard to imagine the 49ers will be too excited for the rest of the season. The 49ers are talented enough to beat a Dolphins team coming off its own hope-crushing loss, but it’s still surprising to see them favored.
Sunday night: Cowboys again?
The NFL didn’t flex out Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys, which is disappointing. Sure the Cowboys will draw ratings as usual, but this isn’t the best product the league can offer on Sunday night. At least the Cowboys haven’t totally quit. They’ve won three of four. They’re still a 4-point home underdog, which is fair. The Buccaneers have been better than their 8-6 record would indicate and still need to win games to make sure the Atlanta Falcons don’t take back the division lead. At least if you want to take the Cowboys, you’re getting a team that’s still competing.
Monday night: Ugly Saints-Packers matchup
At some point maybe the New Orleans Saints playing at the Green Bay Packers on Monday night late in the season made sense to the NFL scheduling people, but it’s truly a mess now. The Saints are decimated by injuries, the Packers are playing very well and they’re a huge 14.5-point favorite for Monday night. It’s tough to take any NFL favorite of more than two touchdowns, but it’s also tough to trust the Saints. The Saints’ rally to almost beat the Washington Commanders last week perhaps shows they can make this dud of a Monday night matchup compelling.
