We’re already two games into Week 17, and bettors who like taking favorites are happy.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens were favored on the road and both won and covered the spread easily. Perhaps that’s a sign of things to come. Late in the season, when teams are dealing with many injuries and out of the playoff race, we’ll see some underdogs get blown out. Perhaps Christmas Day was the first sign of a big week for favorites.
Here is a preview of Week 17 from a betting perspective, with all odds from BetMGM:
Thursday night: Seahawks a growing road favorite
It’s hard to back the Chicago Bears. They’re 4-11. They haven’t won since Oct. 13. The last three weeks they’ve lost by 60 combined points. The point spread reflects that. The Seattle Seahawks are a 4-point favorite for Thursday night. That line has moved with action on Seattle. It was Seahawks -3 very early in the week, then -3.5 and it has gone to -4. The Seahawks aren’t in great shape either, with their hopes of winning the NFC West now resting on winning this week and getting help from the Arizona Cardinals, who have to beat the Los Angeles Rams for Seattle to stay alive. The good news for Seattle is it will be fairly warm for a late December night in Chicago, with temperatures forecasted in the low 40s. The Bears haven’t been good lately, but maybe they have one more decent game in them before the offseason.
Saturday: 3 games with playoff implications
The NFL held some spots open for the Saturday of Week 17, trying to get three intriguing games for a triple-header. And all three matter to the playoff race. The least interesting game is the first one. The Los Angeles Chargers take on the New England Patriots and are 4-point favorites. The Chargers clinch a playoff berth with a win. They’ll be motivated against a bad New England team.
The second game is the best of the three. The Cincinnati Bengals are a 3-point favorite against the Denver Broncos. The Bengals need to win and then hope to get help to make the playoffs, but they’re alive and presumably we’ll get their best effort. The Bengals will be a popular side.
The third game matters too because the Los Angeles Rams will be in position to clinch the NFC West with a win if Seattle loses on Thursday night. The Rams are a fairly heavy 6.5-point favorite over a Cardinals team that was eliminated from the playoffs last week.
Interesting underdog: Can the Panthers keep it going?
The Carolina Panthers are playing hard. We saw that last week when they beat the Arizona Cardinals in overtime. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are very good and chasing an NFC South title, but them being an 8-point favorite over the Panthers is a bit surprising. The Panthers are capable of being blown out — they did get beat 30-14 by the Dallas Cowboys at home two weeks ago — but Carolina has played well enough lately to get the benefit of the doubt.
Game of the week: Packers at Vikings
Because the NFL scheduled games on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night and Monday for Week 17, the daytime Sunday slate is a little light. There is one marquee game, however.
The 11-4 Green Bay Packers take on the 12-3 Minnesota Vikings. The Packers are a surprising 1-point favorite. The Vikings already won at Lambeau Field this season. Minnesota could be eliminated in the NFC North race if they lose and the Lions win, so it’s not like the Vikings aren’t playing for anything. But it’s a nod to the Packers, who are playing very well late in the season. It’s also some disrespect to the Vikings. How many teams that have a record like 13-2 and aren’t sitting starters are home underdogs? It should be a fantastic game, one of the few on Sunday.
Player prop of the week: Any Josh Allen overs
Allen is coming off a quiet week and he can’t afford another one in a tight MVP race. The Buffalo Bills care about winning games, but it’s hard to believe they also don’t care about giving Allen a nice MVP push. Buffalo takes on the New York Jets, which isn’t the greatest matchup for a quarterback. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see Allen put up some nice stats. Not all of Allen’s totals were up at BetMGM on Thursday, but over 1.5 passing touchdowns is up and is a good start.
Sunday night: Jayden Daniels vs. Michael Penix Jr.
It’s always fun to see rookie quarterbacks square off, and Sunday night has a couple of interesting rookies. Daniels is running away with Offensive Rookie of the Year for the Washington Commanders, and Penix is coming off a strong debut for the Atlanta Falcons. The Commanders are a 4-point favorite. The Falcons win the NFC South by winning out, and they did look reenergized with Penix last week. Maybe that was just due to playing a bad New York Giants team. Either way, the Falcons might be able to keep this one close, though that will require containing Daniels a bit. That’s not easy.
Monday night: Lions chase the NFC North and No. 1 seed
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers in Week 17 looked like a game of the year candidate when it was scheduled. The Lions did their part. They are 13-2, hoping still to get the top seed in the NFC. The 49ers are 6-9 and weighed down by injuries. If there’s one more good showing for the 49ers, it’ll be on a Monday night against a very good (and very injured) Lions team. The Lions are favored by 3.5 points, which shows a bit of respect for the 49ers. Not many other 6-9 teams would be getting only 3.5 points against the Lions. If the Vikings lose on Sunday, the Lions can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win on Monday night. If the Vikings win, the Lions suddenly don’t have as much to play before because a Week 18 game against the Vikings will determine if they get the division title and No. 1 seed. The point spread might move depending on what happens in Minnesota on Sunday.
