It was a chalky Week 1 in the NFL.
Favorites were 13-3, according to Covers.com. Home teams were 11-5. The tried and true home underdog angle went 0-2. If you just clicked the favorite in Week 1, you’re already up for the season.
As we’ve learned, it’s best to not overreact to what happened in Week 1. Here is a look at Week 2 from a betting perspective, with lines and odds from BetMGM:
Thursday night: Bills have had the Dolphins’ number
Since 2018, the year the Buffalo Bills drafted quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo is 11-2 against the Miami Dolphins counting playoffs.
Quarterbacks shouldn’t be assigned individual records because football is a team game, but the Bills’ dominance over the Dolphins over the past six seasons is telling. They have been the better team, and even last season when the Dolphins took a big step forward under Mike McDaniel, Buffalo swept them including a Week 18 game that determined the AFC East championship.
Despite all of that, the Bills are 2.5-point underdogs at Miami on Thursday night. The Bills fell behind the Arizona Cardinals early in Week 1 before rallying and maybe that’s a reason the Bills are underdogs, but the Dolphins needed a field goal on the final play to complete a comeback win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bills have shown over the years they’re ahead of the Dolphins, and they have another chance to show it on Thursday night.
Surprising line of Week 2: Colts -3 at Packers
The line moved a lot toward Indianapolis with the news that Jordan Love has a sprained MCL, as it should have. The lookahead line last week was Green Bay -4.5. But did it move enough?
Last season when the Cleveland Browns faced the Baltimore Ravens early in the season and had to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, the Ravens were favored by just 2.5 points. Baltimore won 28-3. This Colts-Packers game has similar vibes. Malik Willis has only been with the Packers since Aug. 27, when he was acquired in a trade, and he has not been good in his regular-season action. Sure, Love might still play this week, but even if he does it’s hard to believe he’ll be close to 100%. Meanwhile, the Colts aren’t a bad team. Maybe Willis leads the Packers to a win (or a cover) but this is a tough spot for him.
One of the lines that moved the most from the lookahead lines last week was the Houston Texans. The Texans were -3.5 over the Chicago Bears last week, and now they’re favored by 6.5. That seems to be a big reaction to how bad the Bears offense looked last week, when they somehow beat the Tennessee Titans despite gaining fewer than 150 yards.
Was all of that preseason optimism about the Bears offense unjustified? Maybe. Caleb Williams will have some ups and downs. But nothing has really changed with either team after one game to move the line three points.
Prop of the week: Chris Olave’s receiving yards
Last week, Olave was nowhere to be seen even though the Saints offense had a great day. He had two catches for 11 yards. The Saints are going to try to correct that. They might not have a choice either; the Saints are 6.5-point underdogs and if they fall behind early then Derek Carr will be throwing a lot. Olave’s total is 58.5 and that seems low for a receiver who was probably a second-round pick in your fantasy league.
The Rams had a tough week. Injuries are piling up, including one to receiver Puka Nacua. Maybe that’s a good reason the Arizona Cardinals are 1-point favorites.
But the Cardinals have issues of their own. It’s still not a good defensive team. After taking an early lead last week against the Buffalo Bills, they allowed 24 second-half points. The offense didn’t look great either, with Marvin Harrison Jr. flopping in his debut and Kyler Murray being under 200 yards passing. The Rams almost beat the Detroit Lions last week, and the Cardinals and Lions aren’t on the same level. It’s a bit surprising the Cardinals are favored, even at home.
Potential survival pool killer: Maybe the Panthers this week
Well, if the Patriots-Bengals game didn’t get you last week and you’re still alive (just remember, nothing is a “safe pick” in the NFL), then you’re probably worried about being the victim of this week’s upset. While the Carolina Panthers were absolutely horrendous last week, this is a tricky spot for the Los Angeles Chargers. They’re traveling cross country and playing an early game against a Panthers team that is as desperate as any in Week 2 after being embarrassed in the opener. About 28% of entries are on the Chargers, who are 6-point road favorites. The Panthers looked really bad, however, there are no safe picks.
Monday night: Falcons try to rebound
The Falcons are a scary side after what we saw last week. Kirk Cousins didn’t move much and the Falcons’ entire offensive plan was catered to him being stationary. It’s hard to beat a decent NFL offense when that’s the case.
The line has moved. The Eagles were -4.5 in the lookahead line last week and it’s up to -6.5 after the Falcons lost in Week 1. The key to Week 2 is to not overreact, and there was clearly a reaction to Atlanta after one game. The Eagles did give up a lot of big plays to the Packers. We’ll find out if the Falcons’ offense is truly broken because of Cousins’ limitations.
