If you’ve paid any attention to the unpredictability of the NFL this month, it won’t come as any surprise that big underdogs are doing incredibly well this season.
Underdogs of 6 points or more are an overwhelming 12-1 against the spread this season, according to Pickswise. Many of those wins against the spread were also straight up wins, as you know if you’re in any survival pool. That record is good news for the underdogs of 6 or more points this week: Giants, Broncos, Jaguars, Patriots and Chargers.
Here are the most interesting lines and odds at BetMGM for Week 3:
Thursday night: Cowboys favored over the Giants
The Dallas Cowboys have been pretty bad the past two weeks, but that isn’t stopping bettors from taking them as a fairly big road favorite on Thursday night. The Cowboys are 6-point favorites at the New York Giants. That line was briefly Cowboys -4 early in the week and has been moving Dallas’ way. Of all the money bet on the spread for the Thursday night game at BetMGM, a staggering 85% is on the Cowboys. Maybe people think that the Cowboys need to get away from Dallas for a game, or that they’ll be better facing a lesser opponent, but it’s still a bit surprising that people are rushing out to take the Cowboys after they’ve looked so bad on both sides of the ball for two weeks. Especially since underdogs of 6 points or more have been nearly automatic through three weeks.
Surprising line of Week 3: Panthers might be OK
The Carolina Panthers probably don’t believe they’re a 1-2 football team. They should feel they’re 1-0, with their season starting over as Andy Dalton took over at quarterback. The Panthers looked like an entirely different team in a Week 3 in a win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Perhaps that’s just the one-week bump we often see with a new quarterback, or a sign that the Raiders are really bad. But if we forget what we saw from the Panthers when Bryce Young was starting, then Carolina being a 4.5-point home underdog against a struggling Cincinnati Bengals team doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Prop of the week: Devin Singletary rushing yards
The book is out on the Cowboys. You can run on them. The Baltimore Ravens didn’t even try to pass the ball last week. Their game plan was to run it as often as they could, and they blasted Dallas for three quarters. Singletary, the Giants’ lead back, has been pretty good this season. He’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry. His rushing yardage total at BetMGM is 61.5 yards, and as long as the Giants don’t fall behind too much early and the game script eliminates their run game, Singletary should have a nice game.
Interesting underdog: Can Buccaneers bounce back?
The Eagles’ bye is Week 5, and that’s important for Week 4. A.J. Brown has a hamstring injury. DeVonta Smith has a concussion, and so does offensive tackle Lane Johnson. Would the Eagles rush any of those three back with their bye coming up in a week? It seems unlikely. That would leave the Eagles very thin at receiver, and their offensive line has historically been worse when Johnson doesn’t play. The Eagles are a 1.5-point road favorite at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that’s surprising if that trio doesn’t play for Philadelphia.
Potential survival pool killer: Wait, you’re still in it?
If you’ve made it through three weeks, congratulations and you’re probably not looking for any help. You’ve figured out a game that seems unwinnable, with the most popular pick going down in each of the first three weeks. For this week, trusting the Cowboys might not be great. They’re the third most popular pick of the week, but are not playing well and they’re on the road. But as we know already, every underdog this season is a potential threat.
Sunday night: Bills vs. Ravens is a huge matchup
The Buffalo Bills might be the best team in the NFL at this early stage of the season. The Baltimore Ravens are 1-2 but showed last week in a win over the Cowboys that they’re still one of the best teams in the league. This could easily be an AFC championship game preview. It’s a treat for a Sunday night matchup, and the Ravens are 2.5-point favorites. It’s tough to go against the Ravens at home, and tough to go against the hottest team in the NFL.
It’s another week with two more Monday night games. One of them probably won’t be that entertaining. The first game is the Tennessee Titans, one of the few 0-3 teams in the NFL, against a Miami Dolphins team that looked inept without Tua Tagovailoa in a Week 3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. It’s a game on the schedule. It says something about the Titans that there’s no indication if the Dolphins will start Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley at quarterback, and yet they’re still just 1-point favorites.
The other Monday night game should be quite good. The 3-0 Seattle Seahawks get their first real test against the Detroit Lions. The Lions are just a 3.5-point favorite, which says the betting market has respect for the Seahawks and their start. It’s a fun early-season matchup.
