Gravity has been defied and social media accounts deleted. Comeback stories have been heralded and our AI robot overlords have been held at bay — for now.
An intermission? Yes, please! A final curtain? Even better!
The 97th Academy Awards arrive Sunday after an awards season full of wild momentum swings, online trolling and internecine whisper campaigns that almost made me long for the day when Harvey Weinstein would personally take me to a movie theater just so I’d know how much people loved “Chocolat.”
Almost.
But here we are at the finish line and “Anora,” my favorite movie of 2024, the one I’ve been championing for the past several months, is about to win the Oscar for best picture. And … I don’t fully believe that it’ll actually happen. I distrust the Oscars so much that I picked “1917” the year my beloved “Parasite” won best picture, even though it was clear by the ceremony that Bong Joon Ho’s taut, discomfiting thriller had momentum — and history — on its side.
Then again, picking “1917” seemed like the safe bet, as it had won the top prizes from the producers and directors guilds … just like “Anora” has done this year. Uh-oh. Will trusting those precursors blow up in my face again? No, dear friends, it will not. Because this time, I’m trusting the precursors and my feelings. “Anora” will win best picture.
How many other Oscars will it take? And might Sean Baker, “Anora’s” auteur, win Oscars for producing, directing, writing and editing the film, tying Walt Disney’s record one-year haul in the process? Break out your Oscar pools as we run down all 23 categories.
BEST PICTURE
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Will win: “Anora”
Could surprise: “Conclave”
“Anora” also won the top prize at the Writers Guild Awards. So, to recap: producers, directors, writers. Only one movie has taken those three guilds and not won the Oscar — “Brokeback Mountain,” which lost to “Crash,” a movie considered by many to be the worst best picture winner in the history of the Academy Awards.
Many in Hollywood’s old guard were famously not on board with the gay love story at the center of “Brokeback Mountain,” with two voters — Ernest Borgnine and Tony Curtis — publicly voicing their distaste. (“If John Wayne were alive, he’d be rolling over in his grave!” said Borgnine, a quote almost too comical to actually be true.)
The academy’s membership has changed since then and, one would hope, matured in the best possible ways. I’d imagine there are some who were put off by the sex in “Anora,” but, by and large, this is an accessible, feel-good movie that has something to say about class and privilege and the perils of getting into bed with the oligarchy. It also has a perfect ending, an ambiguous moment of quiet devastation. It stays with you.
Other movies, not just “Brokeback Mountain,” have won PGA and DGA and lost best picture. But they’re usually beaten by a film that’s a scrappy underdog. (Think “Moonlight” over “La La Land.”) “Anora” is that scrappy underdog. It’s going to lose to the airport novel papal potboiler? I don’t think so.
DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Will win: Baker
Could surprise: Corbet
Both Baker and Corbet have been leaning into their love for cinema in interviews and Q&As. Baker has been passionately advocating for 90-day theatrical windows for movies (“Let’s get it back to the way it used to be”), and Corbet noting that he has made “zero dollars” from “The Brutalist,” but that’s OK because, in the end, “It is the destination, not the journey.”
Most pundits thought Corbet would win the DGA Award for making a 3 ½-hour epic for around $10 million. But directors guild voters went with Baker. In the 76-year history of the DGA Awards, all but eight of its winners have gone on to take the Oscar. Baker is the safe play, even if I do have a nagging suspicion that there is a chance we might see a director/picture split this year.
LEAD ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Will win: Moore
Could surprise: Madison
Moore won at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the Golden Globes. Madison prevailed with the British Film Academy and at the Spirit Awards. Maybe “Anora” has a big night and sweeps its electrifying lead along with it. But my gut (and conversations with voters) tells me that there’s a lot of sentiment behind Moore, a well-liked industry veteran (i.e.: icon) who won a role that fit her like a glove and delivered a raw, vulnerable performance that is the best thing she’s ever done. The fact that “The Substance” also picked up nominations for picture, director and screenplay (and will win makeup and hairstyling) shows a broad level of appreciation that goes beyond the idea that Moore would win only as a nod to her perseverance.
LEAD ACTOR
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Will win: Brody
Could surprise: Chalamet
I keep mulling over reasons why Brody and Chalamet won’t win. Chalamet is too young, just 29, competing in a category that almost always rewards veterans. Brody has already won an Oscar for playing a Holocaust survivor, albeit in a movie that is quite different from “The Brutalist.” Are voters ready to give Brody a second Oscar? But … do we need to give another Oscar to the star of a musician biopic? If Austin Butler couldn’t win for “Elvis,” why would they reward Chalamet for Dylan? The academy tends to make actors pay their dues, and I think they’re going to make Chalamet wait a while. Plus, Brody delivers the superior performance.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Will win: Saldaña
“Category fraud” truthers can find plenty to complain about this year, as it looks like all four acting Oscars will go to lead performances. Saldaña appears in nearly half of “Emilia Pérez” and owns more screen time than co-star Gascón, who was nominated as a lead actress. Saldaña gave a very good performance, singing and dancing her way through the film. But how can you compare her work to Rossellini’s eight-minute turn in “Conclave”? You can’t. All you can do is curtsy and move on to the next category.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Will win: Culkin
Again, in what world is Culkin supporting? “A Real Pain,” the story of two cousins who travel to Poland to visit the childhood home of their beloved late grandmother, is the definition of a two-hander. Culkin’s co-star (and the film’s director and nominated writer) Jesse Eisenberg is in 70% of the movie, Culkin 65%. In fact, Matthew Stewart, a guy who tracks screen time, says Culkin will be the first supporting actor winner to appear in more than 60% of a movie. Like Saldaña, he’s great. And, sure, you could argue that you see the movie through the eyes of Eisenberg’s character. But in a 90-minute film (including credits), Culkin is onscreen for an hour. Deserving. But not supporting.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“A Complete Unknown,” James Mangold and Jay Cocks
“Conclave,” Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard; in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
“Nickel Boys,” RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
“Sing Sing,” Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
Will win: “Conclave”
“Conclave” has the most words.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Anora,” Sean Baker
“The Brutalist,” Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain,” Jesse Eisenberg
“September 5,” Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David
“The Substance,” Coralie Fargeat
Will win: “Anora”
Could surprise: “A Real Pain”
“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” was the last original screenplay winner to come from a movie not nominated for best picture. That was 20 years ago and, back then, there were only five best picture nominees. That means that since the academy expanded the best picture field 15 years ago, every screenplay winner — original and adapted — has come from a movie nominated for best picture.
That would seem to narrow the field to “Anora,” “The Brutalist” and “The Substance.” But the latter two have been lauded more for their direction than their writing. And the dialogue-driven “A Real Pain,” which has won a host of critics group prizes, offers a sharp story about two Jewish men grappling with the trauma of their ancestors’ past, as well as their own inner turmoil. It has the potential to pull off an upset.
ANIMATED FEATURE
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
Will win: “The Wild Robot”
Could surprise: “Flow”
Chris Sanders’ “The Wild Robot” dominated the Annie Awards, winning nine prizes, including best feature. In addition to animated feature, it also picked up nominations for sound and original score. Meanwhile, “Flow,” co-written and directed by Latvian filmmaker Gints Zilbalodis, picked up a second nod, landing in international feature. The academy’s considerable international voting contingent could give “Flow” a boost, but I suspect the veteran Sanders (“Lilo & Stitch,” “How to Train Your Dragon”) is due.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Black Box Diaries”
“No Other Land”
“Porcelain War”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
“Sugarcane”
Will win: “Porcelain War”
Could surprise: “No Other Land”
“No Other Land,” a look at the devastating costs of displacement in the southern West Bank, has won numerous honors, starting with its premiere last year at the Berlin International Film Festival and including prizes from the Los Angeles and New York film critics groups and the International Documentary Assn. But it never found a U.S. distributor, as streamers and studios have shied away from hot-button documentaries. And, at least this year, academy members are no different. That opens the door for “Porcelain War,” the inspirational story of Ukrainian artists creating, fighting and surviving under siege.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
“Emilia Pérez”
“Flow”
“The Girl With the Needle”
“I’m Still Here”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Will win: “Emilia Pérez”
Could surprise: “I’m Still Here”
It is entirely possible that “Emilia Pérez” will finally be sunk by all the controversies plaguing it this year. But it is more likely that the voters who gave it a leading 13 nominations won’t abandon it and that it has enough support to win this category, where it has been the heavy favorite all season. Still, thanks to Sony Pictures Classics’ savvy platform release, “I’m Still Here” peaked when voting was taking place. Like “Emilia Pérez,” it also was nominated for best picture and could well be rewarded on merit alone. It’s close. But I’m sticking with the movie that has continued to win despite the troubles.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“The Brutalist,” Lol Crawley
“Dune: Part Two,” Greig Fraser
“Emilia Pérez,” Paul Guilhaume
“Maria,” Ed Lachman
“Nosferatu,” Jarin Blaschke
Will win: “The Brutalist”
VistaVision!
COSTUME DESIGN
“A Complete Unknown,” Arianne Phillips
“Conclave,” Lisy Christl
“Gladiator II,” Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
“Nosferatu,” Linda Muir
“Wicked,” Paul Tazewell
Will win: “Wicked”
Paul Tazewell is about to become the first Black man to win this Oscar. He and his team created more than 1,000 costumes for the film. That’s a lot of beadwork!
FILM EDITING
“Anora,” Sean Baker
“The Brutalist,” Dávid Jancsó
“Conclave,” Nick Emerson
“Emilia Pérez,” Juliette Welfling
“Wicked,” Myron Kerstein
Will win: “Conclave”
Could surprise: “Anora”
Rest easy, Walt. Your record’s safe.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“A Different Man,” Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado
“Emilia Pérez,” Julia Floch-Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
“Nosferatu,” David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
“The Substance,” Pierre Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli
“Wicked,” Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth
Will win: “The Substance”
You saw Demi Moore’s Halloween post on Instagram, right?
ORIGINAL SCORE
“The Brutalist,” Daniel Blumberg
“Conclave,” Volker Bertelmann
“Emilia Pérez,” Clément Ducol and Camille
“Wicked,” John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
“The Wild Robot,” Kris Bowers
Will win: “The Brutalist”
That overture with the squealing woodwinds and belching tuba, matching the unease we’re feeling watching László Tóth careening around the cargo hold, then giving way to a joyful blast of brass as he sees the Statue of Liberty for the first time. And then that propulsive lead-up to the movie’s two-minute drive to intermission. Thrilling … but also unnerving. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to put on “The Brutalist” soundtrack for the 100th time this year.
ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal,” from “Emilia Pérez”; Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard
“The Journey,” from “The Six Triple Eight”; Music and lyric by Diane Warren
“Like a Bird,” from “Sing Sing”; Music and lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada
“Mi Camino,” from “Emilia Pérez”; Music and lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol
“Never Too Late,” from “Elton John: Never Too Late”; Music and lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin
Will win: “El Mal”
It’s the performance, not the song. If it was the song, Diane Warren would finally have her (competitive) Oscar.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Brutalist,” production design: Judy Becker; set decoration: Patricia Cuccia
“Conclave,” production design: Suzie Davies; set decoration: Cynthia Sleiter
“Dune: Part Two,” production design: Patrice Vermette; set decoration: Shane Vieau
“Nosferatu,” production design: Craig Lathrop; set decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová
“Wicked,” production design: Nathan Crowley; set decoration: Lee Sandales
Will win: “Wicked”
C’mon. Nine million tulips! Though I’d rather have the bookcases from “The Brutalist.”
SOUND
“A Complete Unknown,” Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco
“Dune: Part Two,” Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill
“Emilia Pérez,” Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta
“Wicked,” Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis
“The Wild Robot,” Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts
Will win: “Dune: Part Two”
Could surprise: “Wicked”
Now might be a good time to note that the first “Dune” movie won six Oscars three years ago, more than any other film in 2022. The total will be significantly less this year, despite “Part Two” being a better movie.
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Alien Romulus,” Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan
“Better Man,” Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs
“Dune: Part Two,” Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,” Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burk
“Wicked,” Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould
Will win: “Dune: Part Two”
So … two Oscars. There’s always “Part 3.”
ANIMATED SHORT
“Beautiful Men”
“In the Shadow of the Cypress”
“Magic Candies”
“Wander to Wonder”
“Yuck!”
Will win: “Yuck!”
Could surprise: “Wander to Wonder”
First kiss? Chef’s kiss!
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“Death by Numbers”
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Incident”
“Instruments of a Beating Heart”
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Will win: “Incident”
Could surprise: “I Am Ready, Warden”
“Incident,” a real-time montage from publicly released police body-cam and surveillance videos of a Chicago officer’s fatal shooting of a Black pedestrian and the resulting outcry, is the best of the nominees.
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
“A Lien”
“Anuja”
“I’m Not a Robot”
“The Last Ranger”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
Will win: “Anuja”
Could surprise: “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
“Anuja,” the moving tale of two young Indian sisters looking to better their lives, has the Netflix platform and producer Mindy Kaling on its side, giving it a slight edge.
