The Meter is back, and Buzzier than ever!
Our BuzzMeter experts in film and general awards-season nerdiness have given us their picks for what they believe will be in contention — or deserves some attention — at the 2025 Academy Awards. Caveat emptor: Some films our panelists pick to get in the race haven’t yet been released to the public. That hasn’t stopped our stalwart insiders from viewing them and preferentially voting in 10 Oscar categories (most points for most likely, or most hoped for, to succeed) for your prognosticating pleasure. We call Round 1 the “Buzzy” round because it mixes what the panelists predict will tickle voters with what they hope will — it’s kind of a Buzzy viewing guide. In Round 2, they’ll predict the Oscar nominations. In Round 3, they’ll pick the winners. See all their picks for Round 1 below.
Your 2024 Oscars BuzzMeter panel: Tim Cogshell, LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek; Dave Karger, TCM; Anne Thompson, IndieWire; Glenn Whipp, The Los Angeles Times.
(For The Times: Ricardo DeAratanha; Kent Nishimura; Jason Armond; Jay L. Clendenin)
“Anora” (starring Mark eydelshteyn and Mikey Madison) is on top of the BuzzMeter’s first-round best picture survey.
(Neon)
1. “Anora”
2. “Emilia Pérez”
3. “The Brutalist”
4. (tie) “Conclave”
4. (tie) “Blitz”
4. (tie) “Dune: Part Two”
7. “All We Imagine as Light”
8. “Nickel Boys”
9. (tie) “A Complete Unknown”
9. (tie) “The Room Next Door”
9. (tie) “Gladiator II”
12. “A Real Pain”
13. (tie) “September 5”
13. (tie) “The Piano Lesson”
15. “Challengers”
16. (tie) “A Complete Unknown”
16. (tie) “Juror #2”
18.(tie) “Sing Sing”
18.(tie) “Wicked”
19. “Here”
This early in awards season, with many possible contenders yet to screen, 22 films get best-picture votes from the panel. However, Round 1’s long-range scout of Oscar season is dominated by four: The American indie, street-level comedy-drama “Anora,” the unique French movie musical (en español) “Emilia Pérez,” German-filmmaker Edward Berger’s English-language papal drama “Conclave” and Brady Corbet’s epic, VistaVision-shot, post-WWII drama “The Brutalist.” The towering trio is all over the BuzzMeter, appearing at or near the top of most of its 10 categories, and all make the list for best picture. In our first round of ranked voting by the panel, “Anora” holds a surprisingly large lead at No. 1 — 16 points over second-place “Emilia” — while “Brutalist” is just one point back from there, in third place. “Conclave” lands in a three-way tie for fourth with Steve McQueen’s “Blitz” and “Dune: Part Two.”
Those top contenders aren’t just there as predictions; they’re panel favorites as well, though Glenn Whipp says, “Payal Kapadia’s tender ‘All We Imagine as Light’ won the Grand Prix prize at Cannes for its visually sensual portrait of female friendship in Mumbai. It’s unforgettable and could be this year’s ‘Drive My Car.’ ”
Among those not on the first-round list is Rachel Morrison’s “The Fire Inside.” Tim Cogshell points out “the first-time director is a veteran cinematographer, the first female director of photography to be nominated for an Academy Award (for “Mudbound”), and her film is scripted by Oscar-winning director Barry Jenkins.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Blitz”
2. “Anora”
3. “The Brutalist”
4. “A Complete Unknown”
5. “Conclave”
6. “The Piano Lesson”
7. “The Room Next Door”
8. “Juror #2”
9. “Nickel Boys”
10. “Here”
“Apart from these, ‘The Fire Inside,’ ‘Baby girl,’ ‘Nickel Boys,’ ‘All We Imagine as Light,’ and about a dozen or so other films all have buzz about them this Oscar season. We’ll single out Steve McQueen’s front-runner, ‘Blitz,’ a film that manages to find yet another unique story set during the Second World War, and newcomer Rachel Morrison’s ‘The Fire Inside.’ The first-time director is a veteran cinematographer, the first female director of photography to be nominated for an Academy Award (for ‘Mudbound’), and her film is scripted by Oscar-winning director Barry Jenkins.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “Anora”
2. “Emilia Pérez”
3. “Conclave”
4. “Gladiator II”
5. “Dune: Part Two”
6. “September 5”
7. “The Brutalist”
8. “A Complete Unknown”
9. “Wicked”
10. “A Real Pain”
“With no real frontrunners at this early point in the season, several of the 10 slots are up for grabs. I expect much of the populist talk to surround the epic sequels ‘Dune: Part 2’ and ‘Gladiator II,’ while the independent crowd should coalesce around Cannes standouts ‘Anora’ and ‘Emilia Pérez.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Emilia Pérez”
2. “Anora”
3. “The Brutalist”
4. “Dune: Part Two”
5. “Conclave”
6. “Blitz”
7. “A Real Pain”
8. “The Room Next Door”
9. “All We Imagine as Light”
10. “Nickel Boys”
“At this stage, two Cannes prizewinners are duking it out for the top spot: Sean Baker’s box-office hit ‘Anora’ and Jacques Audiard’s ‘Emilia Pérez.’ Brady Corbet’s ambitious Venice premiere ‘The Brutalist’ is building steam. The only danger for the Cannes films is that they could peak too soon.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “Anora”
2. “The Brutalist”
3. “All We Imagine as Light”
4. “Dune: Part Two”
5. “Nickel Boys”
6. “Blitz”
7. “Challengers”
8. “Emilia Pérez”
9. “Sing Sing”
10. “A Real Pain”
“Payal Kapadia’s tender ‘All We Imagine as Light’ won the Grand Prix prize at Cannes for its visually sensual portrait of female friendship in Mumbai. It’s unforgettable and could be this year’s ‘Drive My Car,’ an under-the-radar stunner that’s so rich and textured that it sneaks into the best-picture race.”
Director and projector: “Anora” auteur Sean Baker.
(Carlin Stiehl/For The Times)
1. Sean Baker — “Anora”
2. Brady Corbet — “The Brutalist”
3. Jacques Audiard — “Emilia Pérez”
4. Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two”
5. Steve McQueen — “Blitz”
6. Ridley Scott — “Gladiator II”
7. (tie) Payal Kapadia — “All We Imagine as Light”
7. (tie) Edward Berger — “Conclave”
7. (tie) James Mangold — “A Complete Unknown”
10. (tie) RaMell Ross — “Nickel Boys”
10. (tie) Mike Leigh — “Hard Truths”
A perhaps surprisingly short list of contenders in Round 1 leaves off notables such as Yorgos Lanthimos (“Kinds of Kindness”), Luca Guadagnino (“Queer” and “Challengers”), Walter Salles (“I’m Still Here”), Pedro Almodóvar (“The Room Next Door”) and such buzzy names as Tim Fehlbaum (“September 5”), Andrea Arnold (“Bird”), Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), John M. Chu (“Wicked”) and Malcolm Washington (“The Piano Lesson”).
But the bigger surprise has to be how far out in front leader Sean Baker is for “Anora”: “Complications arise and Baker delights in each and every one of them, creating a screwball comedy that will end up breaking your heart,” says Glenn Whipp. Baker has nearly double the second-place point total for Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”), who is just two in front of French icône Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”), who is only one point ahead of Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”). Steve McQueen (“Blitz”) rounds out the Top 5.
German filmmaker Edward Berger looks for his first directing nod after the grand international reception of his “All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022): “Edward Berger, who missed out on this category for ‘All Quiet …,’ (even though the film earned nine nominations), seems a better bet this year,” says Dave Karger.
Anne Thompson thinks a less-heralded film could sneak its director into the category: “If a woman were to knock out one of the men, which is unlikely, it would be Payal Kapadia, with the exquisite Indian Cannes prizewinner “All We Imagine as Light.’ ”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Steve McQueen — “Blitz”
2. Sean Baker — “Anora”
3. Brady Corbet — “The Brutalist”
4. James Mangold — “A Complete Unknown”
5. Edward Berger — “Conclave”
“From the buzzy best pictures, we have the buzzy candidates for best director. But some directors not listed here that I suspect will get serious consideration include a few perennials, Clint Eastwood, Pedro Almodovar, Robert Zemeckis, and Steve McQueen, alongside a couple of newcomers, Malcolm Washington ‘The Piano Lesson’ and Rachel Morrison for ‘The Fire Inside.’ ”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Sean Baker — “Anora”
2. Jacques Audiard — “Emilia Pérez”
3. Ridley Scott — “Gladiator II”
4. Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two”
5. Edward Berger — “Conclave”
“As usual, this race stands to become a competition between established academy favorites like Denis Villeneuve and Ridley Scott alongside art-house auteurs like Jacques Audiard and Sean Baker. Meanwhile, Edward Berger, who missed out on this category for ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (even though the film earned nine nominations), seems a better bet this year.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Sean Baker — “Anora”
2. Jacques Audiard — “Emilia Pérez”
3. Brady Corbet — “The Brutalist”
4. Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two”
5. Mike Leigh — “Hard Truths”
“Because of the scale and scope of ‘The Brutalist,’ Venice best director winner Brady Corbet could beat out Sean Baker and Jacques Audiard, but it’s a close race. Just landing one of five director slots is a feat. If a woman were to knock out one of the men, which is unlikely, it would be Payal Kapadia, with the exquisite Indian Cannes prizewinner ‘All We Imagine as Light.’ ”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Sean Baker — “Anora”
2. Brady Corbet — “The Brutalist”
3. Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two”
4. Payal Kapadia — “All We Imagine as Light”
5. RaMell Ross — “Nickel Boys”
“Sean Baker’s movies are attuned to class and privilege, existing on the edges of an America rarely captured on film. With ‘Anora,’ Baker has given us a Cinderella story about a Brooklyn stripper who thinks she has found her Prince Charming in a feckless Russian oligarch. Complications arise and Baker delights in each and every one of them, creating a screwball comedy that will end up breaking your heart.”
The BuzzMeter panel has Mikey Madison of “Anora” on top of the first-round lead-actress rankings. (Also pictured: Mark Eydelshteyn.)
(NEON)
1. Mikey Madison — “Anora”
2. Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl”
3. Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez”
4. Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door”
5. Angelina Jolie — “Maria”
6. (tie) Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths”
6. (tie) Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked”
8. (tie) Demi Moore — “The Substance”
8. (tie) Amy Adams — “Nightbitch”
Dave Karger calls the lead-actress race “the most exciting of all the acting categories this year.” Mikey Madison (“Anora”) holds a narrow three-point lead for first place over previous winner Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) in Round 1 of the BuzzMeter panel’s voting. One point back from there is Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) bidding to become the first trans performer to be nominated in the category, a scenario Karger calls “a potential (and beyond deserving) history-making nomination.”
Gascón shared the best actress award at Cannes with her three costars, and the strength of those performances might work against her: She’s being submitted as lead and the others supporting, though one could argue costar Zoe Saldaña plays the protagonist. The academy is free to consider performers in any category. If members feel Gascón and Saldaña are on equal footing, could it lead to vote splitting?
Tilda Swinton and Angelina Jolie also get considerable love from the panel, but the other actress with the most impassioned shout-outs in Round 1 just misses the Top 5: “It’ll be hard to resist previous nominee Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who creates an unforgettable angry woman in ‘Hard Truths,’ ” says Anne Thompson. “Jean-Baptiste plays a woman who doles out misery and also, crucially, internalizes it, giving the character a humanity and sadness that’s absolutely transcendent,” says Glenn Whipp.
Among the contenders not making the first-round list: previous winners Kate Winslet (“Lee”) and Regina King (“Shirley”), international standouts Kani Kusruti (“All We Imagine as Light”) and Renate Reinsve (“Armand”), awards darling Zendaya for the still buzzy “Challengers” and reigning champ Emma Stone, reuniting with her “Poor Things” director Yorgos Lanthimos for “Kinds of Kindness.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door”
2. Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl”
3. Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked”
4. Mikey Madison — “Anora”
5. Amy Adams — “Nightbitch”
“Cynthia Erivo has taken some online hate for being cast as the Wicked Witch of the West in ‘Wicked.’ For that alone, she deserves a nomination. Amy Adams’ willingness to appear un-glamourous in ‘Nightbitch’ may get her a nom. Nicole Kidman’s turn in ‘Babygirl’ is reminiscent of her work in ‘To Die For,’ and so is Mikey Madison’s in ‘Anora’; maybe that’ll get them each a nomination.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Mikey Madison — “Anora”
2. Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez”
3. Angelina Jolie — “Maria”
4. Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl”
5. Demi Moore — “The Substance”
“The most exciting of all the acting categories this year, thanks to the thrilling turn from ‘Anora’ breakout Mikey Madison, strong work from established stars like Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman and the never-nominated Demi Moore, and a potential (and beyond deserving) history-making nomination from ‘Emilla Pérez’ breakout Karla Sofía Gascón.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez”
2. Mikey Madison — “Anora”
3. Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl”
4. Angelina Jolie — “Maria”
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths”
“It’s ‘Anora’ vs. ‘Emilia Pérez’ again as Mikey Madison and Karla Sofía Gascón battle. The academy could lean into the extraordinary story of Spanish trans actress Gascón. Never count out Oscar winner Angelina Jolie, who reincarnates Maria Callas in ‘Maria,’ or Nicole Kidman, who pulls out the stops in Venice best-actress winner ‘Babygirl.’ It’ll be hard to resist previous nominee Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who creates an unforgettable angry woman in ‘Hard Truths.’ ”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Mikey Madison — “Anora”
2. Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl”
3. Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez”
4. Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths”
5. Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door”
“Movies often put misanthropes on center stage, but usually the sharp edges of these curmudgeons are sanded down. Not so with Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Mike Leigh’s ‘Hard Truths.’ Jean-Baptiste plays a woman who doles out misery and also, crucially, internalizes it, giving the character a humanity and sadness that’s absolutely transcendent.”
Ralph Fiennes is tied atop the BuzzMeter’s lead actor rankings in Round 1 for his work in the papal drama “Conclave” with previous winner Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”).
(Focus Features)
1. (tie) Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave”
1. (tie) Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist”
3. Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing”
4. Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown”
5. Daniel Craig — “Queer”
6. Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II”
7. (tie) Glen Powell — “Hit Man”
7. (tie) Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man”
7. (tie) Tom Hanks — “Here”
Ralph Fiennes has never won an Oscar.
It doesn’t seem possible, but it’s true. In fact, he has been nominated only twice — and not for his endearingly heroic work in “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” his scary performance in “In Bruges” or possibly the funniest turn of 2016 in “Hail, Caesar!” In Round 1 of the BuzzMeter panel’s voting, however, the “Conclave” star is tied for first in the lead race with Adrien Brody, who having won for “The Pianist” more than 20 years ago, Anne Thompson says “delivers a stunning turn as another Holocaust survivor” in “The Brutalist.”
Fiennes is mentioned in the comments of three of our four panelists, i.e.: “Ralph Fiennes seems to be the ‘he’s overdue’ choice this year, and his multifaceted performance in Edward Berger’s ‘Conclave’ is undeniable,” says Dave Karger. Indeed, Thompson says, “Ralph Fiennes is overdue. He earned two Oscar nominations early in his career and was robbed for ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel.’ ”
Rounding out the Top 5 are previous nominees Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) and Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), and another notable yet to receive a nod from the academy: Daniel Craig (“Queer”). Of Domingo, Glenn Whipp writes, “You know how much ‘Sing Sing’ director Greg Kwedar trusts and values Colman Domingo by the number of times he lets the camera linger on his expression.”
Among those not on the first-round list: Emmy winner Jharrel Jerome as real-life, one-legged wrestling champion Anthony Robles in “Unstoppable,” Ethan Herisse in the buzzy, first-person-shot “Nickel Boys” and John Magaro as a young TV sports director thrust into covering the Munich terrorist attack at the 1972 Olympics in the tense “September 5,” none of which had widely screened at press time; Sebastian Stan, who turned in memorable work as a formative Donald Trump in “The Apprentice,” but may suffer from Hollywood’s political exhaustion; and Nicholas Hoult, perhaps for his stressful, layered lead role in “Juror No. 2,” though he has had quite a year, with wildly different performances in “The Order” and “Nosferatu” as well.
And Ralph Fiennes’ two previous noms? For “Schindler’s List” and “The English Patient.” (Crazy, isn’t it? He didn’t win for “Schindler.”)
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist”
2. Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown”
3. Daniel Craig — “Queer”
4. Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave”
5. Tom Hanks — “Here”
“The category is wide open. Perhaps we’ll see Adrien Brody (‘The Brutalist’) take the stage for the first time since ‘The Pianist.’ Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan might be interesting, as should be Daniel Craig in ‘Queer,’ and Ralph Fiennes in the papal drama ‘Conclave.’ Tom Hanks working with ‘Polar Express’ director Robert Zemeckis in ‘Here’ could leave us in the uncanny valley or get him another Oscar nod.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave”
2. Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist”
3. Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown”
4. Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing”
5. Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II”
“Ralph Fiennes seems to be the ‘he’s overdue’ choice this year, and his multifaceted performance in Edward Berger’s ‘Conclave’ is undeniable. But he stands to face strong competition from millennial favorites Paul Mescal and Timothée Chalamet, not to mention Adrien Brody (‘The Brutalist’), who won this category 22 years ago.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave”
2. Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist”
3. Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II”
4. Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing”
5. Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man”
“Ralph Fiennes is overdue. He earned two Oscar nominations early in his career and was robbed for ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel.’ Now he carries papal thriller ‘Conclave.’ The only actor who could steal his thunder is Adrien Brody, who won one Oscar for ‘The Pianist,’ and now delivers a stunning turn as another holocaust survivor, this time trying to make his way as an architect in America.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing”
2. Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave”
3. Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist”
4. Daniel Craig — “Queer”
5. Glen Powell — “Hit Man”
“You know how much ‘Sing Sing’ director Greg Kwedar trusts and values Colman Domingo by the number of times he lets the camera linger on his expression. Domingo anchors the ensemble of this inspirational drama about a prison theater program, a group of actors that, were it not for the women of ‘Emilia Pérez,’ would be the favorite to prevail at the SAG Awards.”
Danielle Deadwyler leads the Round-1 BuzzMeter polling for supporting actress for her work in “The Piano Lesson.”
(Netflix)
1. Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson”
2. Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez”
3. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys”
4. Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez”
5. Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters”
6. (tie) Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz”
6. (tie) Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters”
6. (tie) Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave”
9. (tie) Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters”
9. (tie) Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist”
9. (tie) Carol Kane — “Between the Temples”
Danielle Deadwyler leads for “The Piano Lesson,” a status several panelists see as overdue: “Danielle Deadwyler’s performance in ‘Till’ is just one among several of hers that deserved Oscar love; You can’t ignore her in ‘The Piano Lesson,’ ” says Tim Cogshell. “She deserves awards attention yet again.” Dave Karger writes, “If ‘The Piano Lesson’ standout Danielle Deadwyler fails to make the cut after barely missing out two years ago for ‘Till,’ I’m not sure I will recover.”
In second place is Zoe Saldaña, best known for appearing in some of the biggest-grossing films of all time (in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, the “Avatar” franchise and the “Star Trek” reboot movies). She won’t be looked at the same way again after unveiling her considerable singing and dancing skills in Jacques Audiard’s film — for which she already shares the Cannes best actress prize with three costars (Selena Gomez also makes the Top 5 here).
Only five points, however, separate her from the next seven on the Round 1 list, with Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) and Carrie Coon (“His Three Daughters”) also making the Top 5. Interestingly, all three sisters from “His Three Daughters” (Coon, Natasha Lyonne, Elizabeth Olsen) receive votes — each from different panelists. “Each member of this trio does layered, subtle, revelatory work,” declares Glenn Whipp. “Nominate them all?”
Among the notables not making the first-round cut: Leonie Benesch (“September 5”), Michelle Austin (“Hard Truths”), Jennifer Lopez (“Unstoppable”) and one from a film that hadn’t screened when the panel voted: Ariana Grande (“Wicked”). Yes, it’s entirely plausible that both Selena Gomez and Ariana Grande might be nominated in the same category in the same year. Both are deserving (need evidence of Grande’s comic chops? Check out her recent “Saturday Night Live” hosting gig), and … oh, the ratings …
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson”
2. Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez”
3. Carol Kane — “Between the Temples”
4. Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz”
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys”
“Danielle Deadwyler’s performance in ‘Till’ is just one among several of hers that deserved Oscar love; you can’t ignore her in ‘The Piano Lesson.’ She deserves awards attention yet again. Carol Kane in ‘Between the Temples’ is wonderful but an unlikely nominee. In contrast, Selena Gomez (‘Emilia Pérez’) may add an Oscar nod to that billion dollars she made doing other stuff.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez”
2. Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave”
3. Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson”
4. Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist”
5. Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez”
“The Cannes-prizewinning ‘Emilia Pérez’ actresses could feasibly score two of the five slots in this category. And it would be lovely to see Isabella Rossellini finally earn her first career nomination after almost 50 years of performing. But if ‘The Piano Lesson’ standout Danielle Deadwyler fails to make the cut after barely missing out two years ago for ‘Till,’ I’m not sure I will recover.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys”
2. Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez”
3. Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson”
4. Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz”
5. Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist”
“The category is in flux. ‘Nickel Boys’ star Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor could follow up her recent Oscar nod for ‘King Richard,’ while four-time nominee Saoirse Ronan is a lock as a mother trying to find her lost son in ‘Blitz,’ partly because she’s also so fine in ‘The Outrun.’ And Zoe Saldaña showed audiences her range in musical drama ‘Emilia Pérez.’ ”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters”
2. Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters”
3. Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters”
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys”
5. Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez”
“How do you choose between the wonderful women headlining ‘His Three Daughters’? I can’t. Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne and Elizabeth Olsen are equally excellent, playing adult sisters navigating their own relationships while saying goodbye to their dying father. Each member of this trio does layered, subtle, revelatory work. Nominate them all?”
Kieran Culkin (left) and Jesse Eisenberg appear in “A Real Pain.” Culkin is the panel’s pick to lead the supporting-actor category in Round 1.
(Sundance Institute)
1. Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain”
2. Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II”
3. Stanley Tucci — “Conclave”
4. Guy Pearce — “The Brutalist”
5. (tie) Peter Sarsgaard — “September 5”
5. (tie) Jeremy Strong — “The Apprentice”
7. Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson”
8. Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing”
9. John Lithgow — “Conclave”
10. (tie) Austin Butler — “Dune: Part Two”
10. (tie) Brian Tyree Henry — “The Fire Inside”
10. (tie) Jesse Plemons — “Civil War”
Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”), last seen skulking off with the Emmy for his pathetic and hilarious work on “Succession,” leads Round 1. “This category should be won handily by Kieran Culkin, who is funny and scary and moving in ‘A Real Pain,’ ” writes Anne Thompson. Glenn Whipp says, “Kieran Culkin winning an award for playing an extroverted charmer masking a deep well of pain? Didn’t that already happen with ‘Succession’? Sure. Culkin finds new ways to tap into the melancholy underneath the appealing (and sometimes annoying) exterior.”
Culkin’s “Succession” brother/ally/rival, Jeremy Strong, also makes the Top 5 as infamous lawyer/fixer Roy Cohn (yes, that Roy Cohn, “Angels in America” fans) in the making-of-Trump saga “The Apprentice.” They bookend a group with one of the most storied actors of all, Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), respected veteran Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”) and noted Italy-searcher Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”), still looking for his, ahem, big night.
Meanwhile, “Jesse Plemons has a single scene in ‘Civil War’; It may be chilling enough for a nom,” writes Tim Cogshell, and there’s precedent for brief appearances walking off with the Oscar. Two performers have won in the supporting actress category for about eight minutes or less of screen time (one for less than six minutes) … can you name them? (Answer below)
Among the notables not appearing on the first-round list are the boys from “Challengers” (Mike Faist, Josh O’Connor), “Babygirl” (Harris Dickinson, Antonio Banderas) and “Queer” (Drew Starkey, Jason Schwartzman); the rest of the cast of “The Piano Lesson” (Samuel L. Jackson gets support from the panel; others include Ray Fisher and Corey Hawkins), John Magaro (“September 5”), previous winners Sean Penn (“Daddio”) and Paul Raci (“Sing Sing”), “Nickel Boys” standout Brandon Wilson and the “Anora” scene stealer, Russian star Yura Borisov.
As to those brief-but memorable performances: Judi Dench won for “Shakespeare in Love” for about eight minutes onscreen; Beatrice Straight of “Network” appeared for only about 5 minutes and 40 seconds … and also won.
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Jeremy Strong — “The Apprentice”
2. Stanley Tucci — “Conclave”
3. Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II”
4. John Lithgow — “Conclave”
5. Jesse Plemons — “Civil War”
“Jesse Plemons has a single scene in ‘Civil War’; it may be chilling enough for a nom. Perhaps the most robust performance of the year is Jeremy Strong as Roy Cohn in ‘The Apprentice,’ which is also chilling, for entirely different reasons. ‘Conclave’ costars John Lithgow and Stanley Tucci can masticate the scenery with the best of them. And one expects Denzel Washington, in ‘Gladiator II,’ to, as the kids say, eat.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Peter Sarsgaard — “September 5”
2. Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II”
3. Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain”
4. Stanley Tucci — “Conclave”
5. Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing”
“The beloved Stanley Tucci could very well earn his second career nomination (and his first in 15 years) for his pivotal performance in ‘Conclave,’ while two-time winner Denzel Washington seems a great bet for his first nod in this category in 35 years. Meanwhile, in the battle of the ‘Succession’ stars, I give Kieran Culkin the slight edge over ‘The Apprentice’ scene stealer Jeremy Strong.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain”
2. Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson”
3. Guy Pearce — “The Brutalist”
4. Stanley Tucci — “Conclave”
5. Brian Tyree Henry — “The Fire Inside”
“This category should be won handily by Kieran Culkin, who is funny and scary and moving in ‘A Real Pain,’ which played Sundance but made a comeback at fall festivals. Giving him competition are Stanley Tucci (‘Conclave’), Samuel L. Jackson (‘The Piano Lesson’), Brian Tyree Henry (‘The Fire Inside’) and Guy Pearce as Adrien Brody’s patron and nemesis in ‘The Brutalist.’ ”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain”
2. Guy Pearce — “The Brutalist”
3. Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II”
4. Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing”
5. Austin Butler — “Dune: Part Two”
“Kieran Culkin winning an award for playing an extroverted charmer masking a deep well of pain? Didn’t that already happen with ‘Succession’? Sure. But Culkin finds new ways to tap into the melancholy underneath the appealing (and sometimes annoying) exterior in ‘A Real Pain,’ the Sundance crowd-pleaser that should be a hit with Oscar voters.”
Vache Tovmasyan as Garnick and Yura Borisov as Igor in Sean Baker’s modern farce with a heart, “Anora.”
(NEON)
1. “Anora” — Sean Baker
2. “The Brutalist” — Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
3. “A Real Pain” — Jesse Eisenberg
4. “Blitz” — Steve McQueen
5. “September 5” — Tim Fehlbaum
6. (tie) “His Three Daughters” — Azazel Jacobs
6. (tie) “All We Imagine as Light” — Payal Kapadia
6. (tie) “Saturday Night” — Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman
9. (tie) “Hard Truths” — Mike Leigh
9. (tie) “Shirley” — John Ridley
11. (tie) “The Apprentice” — Gabriel Sherman
11. (tie) “Challengers” — Justin Kuritzkes
Way, way, way out in front is Sean Baker’s hilarious and touching original script for “Anora” — it has more points than the total of the next two scripts atop the Round 1 voting (“The Brutalist” and “A Real Pain”).
“One thing’s for sure: Sean Baker will score his first writing nomination for his wild, profane and ultimately moving ‘Anora’ screenplay,” says Dave Karger. Anne Thompson says, “ ‘Anora’ will be hard to beat, but if any movie can do it, Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s screenplay for ‘The Brutalist’ might be it.” “ ‘The Brutalist’ clocks in around three-and-a-half hours, but it doesn’t feel like there’s one wasted minute,” enthuses Glenn Whipp.
The other Top 5 slots go to “Blitz” and the Munich Olympics drama “September 5.” Tied for the last spot with the “The Apprentice” is the only appearance in the BuzzMeter’s first round for Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Blitz”
2. “Anora”
3. “Saturday Night”
4. “Shirley”
5. “The Apprentice”
“ ‘Anora,’ from the pen of auteur Sean Baker, won big at Cannes, so … buzzy. ‘The Apprentice,’ by journalist-turned-screenwriter Gabriel Sherman, is a well-considered distillation of Trump by way of Roy Cohn. ‘Blitz,’ by director/writer Steve McQueen melds history with sociology, action and drama without the aid of a book. ‘Saturday Night’ screenwriters Gil Kenan and Jason Reitman distill 90 minutes of pre-’SNL’ scrambling into a pretty good episode of ‘SNL.’ ‘Shirley,’ about the iconic civil-rights warrior, Congressperson Shirley Chisholm, written by John Ridley, features a great script for an excellent movie.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “Anora”
2. “September 5”
3. “A Real Pain”
4. “All We Imagine as Light”
5. “The Brutalist”
“One thing’s for sure: Sean Baker will score his first writing nomination for his wild, profane and ultimately moving ‘Anora’ screenplay. I’d also count on the hyper-verbal ‘September 5’ and ‘A Real Pain’ to resonate with the writers’ branch. And while ‘All We Imagine as Light’ wasn’t selected by its home country for the international feature race, it could still make an appearance here.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Anora”
2. “The Brutalist”
3. “A Real Pain”
4. “Hard Truths”
5. “All We Imagine as Light”
“ ‘Anora’ will be hard to beat, but if any movie can do it, Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s screenplay for ‘The Brutalist’ might be it. At age 81, Mike Leigh is a five-time nominee in this category and has never won an Oscar. Jesse Eisenberg has a good shot for ‘A Real Pain.’ And if journalism feat ‘September 5’ doesn’t impress, Payal Kapadia could sneak in here for ‘All We Imagine as Light.’ ”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “Anora”
2. “The Brutalist”
3. “His Three Daughters”
4. “A Real Pain”
5. “Challengers”
“ ‘The Brutalist’ clocks in around three-and-a-half hours, but it doesn’t feel like there’s one wasted minute. Everything about this ambitious, sweeping epic feels precisely calibrated, revealing the story of a Hungarian architect immigrating to America after WWII, a man chasing the American dream and finding it elusive and poisonous. All the hyperbole is justified.”
Brandon Wilson and Ethan Herisse in “Nickel Boys,” adapted by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes from Colson Whitehead’s novel. The script is tied for first in the BuzzMeter’s adapted category with “Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard’s audacious adaptation of Boris Razon’s novel “Écoute.”
(L. Kasimu Harris / Amazon MGM Studios)
1. (tie) “Nickel Boys”
1. (tie) “Emilia Pérez”
3. “Conclave”
4. “Dune: Part Two”
5. “The Room Next Door”
6. “Deadpool & Wolverine”
7. (tie) “Inside Out 2”
7. (tie) “Sing Sing”
9. (tie) “A Complete Unknown”
9. (tie) “The Wild Robot”
11. (tie) “The Fire Inside”
11. (tie) “Gladiator II”
Tied at the top with awards-season juggernaut “Emilia Pérez” is RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’ adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s novel “The Nickel Boys.” “Conclave” continues to show up all over the BuzzMeter, only one point out of first in the adapted category.
Glenn Whipp’s two cents on “Nickel Boys”: “If you’ve read Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel about the friendship between two Black boys at a brutal Florida reform school, you know it’s not an easy read — or an easy book to adapt for a film. RaMell Ross does a masterful job.”
Writer-director Jacques Audiard’s “Pérez” screenplay is adapted from his own adaptation of a part of Boris Razon’s novel, “Écoute.” Audiard originally wrote it as a libretto for an opera, but later converted it to a big-screen musical with songs that helped shape the screenplay by the French team of Clément Ducol and Camille.
“The unpredictable complexities of ‘Emilia Pérez’ should impress writers, along with some sequels: ‘Dune: Part Two,’ ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ and ‘Inside Out 2,’ ” says Anne Thompson.
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Nickel Boys”
2. “Conclave”
3. “Deadpool & Wolverine”
4. “A Complete Unknown”
5. “The Fire Inside”
“The source material for many films this year has been exceptional. There is lots of buzz for these: ‘A Complete Unknown’ — Jay Cocks, James Mangold; based on ‘Dylan Goes Electric!’ by Elijah Wald. ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ — Ryan Reynolds, Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick, Zeb Wills, Shawn Levy; based on characters from Marvel Comics. ‘Conclave’ — Peter Straughan; based on ‘Conclave’ by Robert Harris. ‘The Fire Inside’ — Barry Jenkins; based on ‘T-Rex’ by Zackary Canepari and Drea Cooper. And ‘Nickel Boys’ by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, based on ‘The Nickel Boys’ by Colson Whitehead.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “Conclave”
2. “Emilia Pérez”
3. “The Room Next Door”
4. “Dune: Part Two”
5. “Gladiator II”
“This roster looks like it will be quite eclectic, with big-budget action films like ‘Dune: Part 2’ and ‘Gladiator II’ appearing side by side with literary adaptation (‘Conclave’), the latest entry from past screenplay winner Pedro Almodóvar (‘The Room Next Door’), and a fSpanish-language musical with a trans lead (‘Emilia Pérez).”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Emilia Pérez”
2. “Dune: Part Two”
3. “Inside Out 2”
4. “The Wild Robot”
5. “Deadpool & Wolverine”
“The unpredictable complexities of ‘Emilia Pérez’ should impress writers, along with some sequels: ‘Dune Part Two,’ ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ and ‘Inside Out 2,’ as well as another animated feature, ‘The Wild Robot.’ ”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “Nickel Boys”
2. “The Room Next Door”
3. “Sing Sing”
4. “Dune: Part Two”
5. “Emilia Pérez”
“If you’ve read Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel about the friendship between two Black boys at a brutal Florida reform school, you know it’s not an easy read — or an easy book to adapt for a film. RaMell Ross does a masterful job, immersing viewers into the lives and perspectives of the characters with an impressionism that defies convention, making what we witness all the more powerful.”
Zoe Saldaña, left, and Karla Sofía Gascón in “Emilia Pérez,” the Round-1 leader in the international-feature category.
(Netflix)
1. “Emilia Pérez” (France)
2. “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
3. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany)
4. (tie) “Dahomey” (Senegal)
4. (tie) “Kneecap” (Ireland)
4. (tie) “Sujo” (Mexico)
4. (tie) “Touch” (Iceland)
4. (tie) “Santosh” (United Kingdom)
9. (tie) “Universal Language” (Canada)
9. (tie) “Waterdrop” (Albania)
This season’s international juggernaut is, of course, “Emilia Pérez,” and it’s well out in front in Round 1. The BuzzMeter expects it to follow recent sensations such as “The Zone of Interest,” “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Drive My Car,” “Another Round” and “Parasite” in dominating this category and picking up several other Oscar nominations.
“Parasite,” of course, became the first non-English-language film to win best picture. Glenn Whipp asks, “Could Jacques Audiard’s ‘Emilia Pérez’ become the second just five years later? It’ll be the heavy favorite to win the international feature prize. And if academy members respond the way that festival audiences have, this crowd-pleasing melodrama might have what it takes to go all the way.”
In second and third place are “I’m Still Here,” from highly regarded Brazilian veteran Walter Salles, and “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” from Iranian dissident director Mohammad Rasoulof (who fled to Germany this year after being sentenced to eight years in prison, including whipping, by the Islamic Republic). Then there’s a five-way tie to round out the Top 5. At press time, there were 86 submissions in the category.
Anne Thompson sums it up: “Count France’s ‘Emilia Pérez,’ which will contend in multiple categories as the leader, with German entry ‘The Seed of the Sacred Fig’ and Brazil’s ‘I’m Still Here’ as strong, emotional contenders for the final five.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
2. “Emilia Pérez” (France)
3. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany)
4. “Sujo” (Mexico)
5. “Waterdrop” (Albania)
“I’m only beginning to engage with several of the films being talked about in this category. ‘Waterdrop’ (Albania), ‘I’m Still Here’ (Brazil), ‘The Seed of the Sacred Fig’ (Germany), and ‘Sujo’ from ‘Mexico’ are films being touted that I have yet to see. I saw ‘Emilia Pérez’ from France. Loved it.“
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “Emilia Pérez” (France)
2. “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
3. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany)
4. “Santosh” (United Kingdom)
5. “Kneecap” (Ireland)
“Always the toughest category to predict this early in the season, this race will be dominated by France’s one-of-a-kind ‘Emilia Pérez,’ which is the international film with the best shot of breaking through to major categories as well. Other early standouts include Brazil’s true-life period drama ‘I’m Still Here’ and Germany’s Iran-set ‘The Seed of the Sacred Fig.’”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Emilia Pérez” (France)
2. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany)
3. “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
4. “Touch” (Iceland)
5. “Kneecap” (Ireland)
“Count France’s ‘Emilia Pérez,’ which will contend in multiple categories as the leader, with German entry ‘The Seed of the Sacred Fig’ and Brazil’s ‘I’m Still Here’ as strong, emotional contenders for the final five.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “Emilia Pérez” (France)
2. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany)
3. “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
4. “Dahomey” (Senegal)
5. “Universal Language” (Canada)
“ ‘Parasite’ made Oscar history at the 2020 Academy Awards, becoming the first non-English language film to win best picture. Could Jacques Audiard’s ‘Emilia Pérez’ become the second just five years later? It’ll be the heavy favorite to win the international feature prize. And if academy members respond the way that festival audiences have, this crowd-pleasing melodrama might have what it takes to go all the way.”
Fink (Pedro Pascal), Roz (Lupita N’yongo) and Pinktail (Catherine O’Hara) in “The Wild Robot,” which has the most votes in the animated-feature category in Round 1 of the BuzzMeter.
(Universal Pictures / DreamWorks)
1. “The Wild Robot”
2. “Inside Out 2”
3. “Piece by Piece”
4. (tie) “Despicable Me 4”
4. (tie) “Memoir of a Snail”
4. (tie) “Moana 2”
7. “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
8. “Transformers One”
Just edging out the highest-grossing animated film of all time is a quirky, painted-looking parenting parable. DreamWorks’ “The Wild Robot,” with its 98% on both Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer (critical response) and Popcornmeter (audience reaction) and $270 million worldwide gross, is one point up on “Inside Out 2” (90% Tomatometer/95% Popcornmeter). Pixar will likely accept the record-breaking $1.7-billion worldwide gross for its sequel to the 2015 Oscar winner as a consolation prize for its second-place finish in Round 1 of the BuzzMeter.
They each have more than double the total of the next feature on the list, the idiosyncratic, Lego-style biopic of superstar songwriter-producer-performer Pharrell, “Piece by Piece.” Following them is a three-way tie: “Despicable Me 4,” “Moana 2” and the Australian claymation for grownups “Memoir of a Snail,” written and directed by Oscar winner Adam Elliot. Also notably making the first-round list: “Transformers One,” with its 89% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
The panelists are not in agreement about the overall quality of the year’s slate, though: “It was a thin year for exceptional animation but not for profitable animation,” says Tim Cogshell. But Dave Karger says, “In a terrific year for animated films, expect stalwarts DreamWorks (‘The Wild Robot’) and Pixar (‘Inside Out 2’) to topline this category alongside the brilliant, genre-spanning ‘Piece by Piece.’ ”
Glenn Whipp writes, “I was leery at the prospect of ‘Inside Out 2.’ The 2015 original was perfect and, frankly, I’m still getting over Bing Bong fading away. But the sequel … was funny, sweet and occasionally profound. And, yes, I found myself wiping away a tear or two. Damn you, Pixar!”
Among those not receiving first-round votes: The upcoming epic “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” and the well-received “The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie,” as well as several international standouts. Among these: The funny and sneakily touching French farce “Linda veut du poulet! (Chicken for Linda!),” a legit sci-fi noir, “Mars Express” (also French), and the unique, quirky, hilariously deadpan and weird, “Ghost Cat Anzu” from Japan.
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Despicable Me 4”
2. “The Wild Robot”
3. “Inside Out 2”
4. “Moana 2”
5. “Piece by Piece”
“It was a thin year for exceptional animation but not for profitable animation. There are a few big dollar makers, and they will likely catch nominations, including: ‘Despicable Me 4,’ ‘Inside Out 2,’ ‘Moana 2,’ ‘The Wild Robot,’ and ‘Piece by Piece’ the animated documentary/music biopic built using the Lego-based animation technique that some people love.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “The Wild Robot”
2. “Piece by Piece”
3. “Inside Out 2”
4. “Memoir of a Snail”
5. “Transformers One”
“In a terrific year for animated films, expect stalwarts DreamWorks (‘The Wild Robot’) and Pixar (‘Inside Out 2’) to topline this category alongside the brilliant, genre-spanning ‘Piece by Piece.’ I also expect the sleeper spot to go to the festival favorite ‘Memoir of a Snail.’ And those ‘Transformers One’ reviews mean it’s a real contender for a nomination as well.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “The Wild Robot”
2. “Inside Out 2”
3. “Memoir of a Snail”
4. “Piece by Piece”
5. “Despicable Me 4”
“This is a duel between Pixar’s sequel blockbuster ‘Inside Out 2’ and original ‘The Wild Robot,’ which is racking up strong numbers as well. Add to the mix the Australian ‘Memoir of a Snail’ (from Oscar winner Adam Elliot), which is not for small kids, and you have a race.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “Inside Out 2”
2. “Moana 2”
3. “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
4. “The Wild Robot”
5. “Memoir of a Snail”
“I was leery at the prospect of ‘Inside Out 2.’ The 2015 original was perfect and, frankly, I’m still getting over Bing Bong fading away. But the sequel proved even more popular, becoming the biggest hit in the illustrious history of Pixar. It was funny, sweet and occasionally profound. And, yes, I found myself wiping away a tear or two. Damn you, Pixar!”
