Partial results in South Africa’s national election put the long-ruling African National Congress party at well below 50% of the vote as counting continued Thursday, and it could be on the brink of losing its majority for the first time since sweeping to power under Nelson Mandela at the end of apartheid in 1994.
That would be a momentous change for South Africa, where the ANC has been dominant for all 30 years of its young democracy and the only governing party many have known.
The ANC had the most votes and was well ahead in the early results, as expected. But if it fails to secure a majority, it may have to form a coalition to remain in the government — something that has not happened before in post-apartheid South Africa. Without a majority, the ANC would also need help from other parties to reelect President Cyril Ramaphosa for a second term.
“I think we are seeing a massive change in South African politics,” Susan Booysen, a political analyst and professor emeritus at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, said on national broadcaster SABC TV.
It was still only an early picture after Wednesday’s election. The final results were expected to take days, with the independent electoral commission saying they would be delivered by Sunday, although they could come earlier.
The ANC’s worst performance in a national election is the 57.5% it won in the last one in 2019. A projection from a government agency and SABC, based on early vote returns, estimated that the ANC would end up with about 42% this time, a drop of more than 15%, which would be a stunning result in the context of South Africa.
South Africa may be the continent’s most advanced country, but it has struggled to solve a profuse inequality that has kept millions in poverty decades after the segregation of apartheid ended. That inequality and widespread poverty disproportionately affects the Black majority that make up more than 80% of the country’s population. South Africa has one of the worst unemployment rates in the world at 32%.
Voters repeatedly referred to unemployment as well as other issues like ANC corruption scandals, problems with basic government services and high violent crime as their main grievances.
