Let’s take a look at the season that was for the 2024 Philadelphia Phillies, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for 2025.
Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What’s next for the Brewers, Astros, Orioles and more?
Postseason outcome
The Phillies lost to the Mets in four games in the NLDS. Their bullpen proved to be their undoing, with a late collapse allowing the Mets to come back in Game 1 after a Zack Wheeler gem and a grand slam surrendered to Francisco Lindor in Game 4 sealing their October exit.
They won a thrilling, back-and-forth Game 2 but were stymied by Mets starter Sean Manaea in Game 3. The Phillies, a team with a World Series-or-bust mentality every year, failed to win a postseason series.
Things that went right
The Phillies not only won their first NL East title since 2011 but they also ran away from the competition, building an 8.5-game lead by the All-Star break. The club battled the likes of the Dodgers and Yankees throughout the season to claim the best record in baseball and ended up with the NL’s No. 2 seed.
Once again, Bryce Harper paced the offense. This was his sixth season in Philadelphia, and in all six of those years, he has posted an OPS over .875. His premium plate patience annually makes him one of baseball’s on-base leaders, and this year he ranked 10th in OBP. The other offensive catalyst was leadoff man Kyle Schwarber, who topped the century mark in runs and RBI for a second straight year. Schwarber is a prototypical leadoff man for the modern era — an on-base machine with premium power skills. He set a major-league record this year with 15 leadoff homers.
The rotation was also a strength for this team, ranking eighth in baseball with a 3.81 ERA. Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez each posted an ERA under 3.60 over more than 180 innings, a feat that was not matched by three starters on any other team. Ranger Suárez (3.46 ERA, 150.2 IP) had an excellent season as well.
Things that went wrong
There were few major letdowns in Philadelphia this year, but Whit Merrifield was someone who didn’t meet expectations. The 35-year-old was expected to be a super-utility player when he signed a one-year deal in February. Instead, Merrifield hit .199 with a .572 OPS before being released on July 12. His struggles left the team with an uninspiring bench crew.
Nick Castellanos was the only key player on the team who endured a disappointing year. The 32-year-old hit .272 with 29 homers and 106 RBI last season before batting just .254 with 23 long balls and 86 RBI this year. Most of his struggles took place in the first half (.680 OPS), and he looked more like himself after the All-Star break (.839 OPS). Castellanos also continued to be one of baseball’s worst defensive right fielders.
To his credit, Castellanos had a memorable performance in Game 2 of the NLDS, homering in the sixth inning and driving in the game-winning run in the bottom of the ninth. He finished the series 7-for-17 with a 1.059 OPS.
Offseason plans
The bad news is that many of the Phillies’ key hitters are on the wrong side of 30. The good news is that they are excellent players who are under team control for 2025. J.T. Realmuto is heading into the final year of his $115 million contract and will handle duties behind the plate. Harper (first base), Bryson Stott (second base), Alec Bohm (third base) and Trea Turner (shortstop) are all under contract for several years and are locked into starting roles at their respective positions. Schwarber is outstanding as the DH and has one year remaining on his contract.
The outfield is mostly settled as well. Castellanos will play right field, and Brandon Marsh will be the left fielder against right-handed pitchers. Acquired from Baltimore in July, Austin Hays is a right-handed hitter to platoon with Marsh, and he can play right or center field as well. Johan Rojas will need to battle for his job. The speedster is a strong defender who can make things happen on the basepaths, but he has subpar plate skills. The front office will need to decide if it can live with Rojas at the bottom of an otherwise potent lineup.
The rotation is in great shape, as Wheeler, Nola, Sánchez and Suárez all remain under contract. Taijuan Walker has been a disappointment in two years with the Phillies, but he has two years remaining on a lucrative contract that pays $18 million per season and will therefore get a chance to win the final rotation spot. Tyler Phillips, who was inconsistent as a rookie this year, is another challenger for the role.
It’s a good thing the rotation and batting order are mostly set because the Phillies’ bullpen needs a makeover with Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm all heading to free agency. There is talent returning in José Alvarado, José Ruiz and Orion Kerkering, but the team could use an experienced closer to lead the group. Alternatively, Philly could add a couple of relievers for depth and use Alvarado and Kerkering in the ninth inning.
Prospects on the horizon
As one would expect from an organization that has been living in the moment for several years, Philadelphia’s prospect pool is not one of baseball’s best. The Phillies have a few notable prospects who are at least a couple of years away from reaching the majors, but the group of MLB-ready players mostly consists of a pair of pitchers.
Andrew Painter, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2021, is near the end of his rehab process from 2023 Tommy John surgery. The lanky right-hander posted eye-popping numbers in 2022, including a 1.56 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP and a 13.5 K/9 rate. He will need to round back into form in the minors but should debut with Philadelphia in the first half of 2025. If not for the surgery, the 21-year-old would likely already be in the Phillies’ rotation.
Mick Abel has had an uneven path through the minors since being selected in the first round in 2020. The 23-year-old has shown significant swing-and-miss skills while struggling mightily to limit walks, especially at the Triple-A level this year. Abel will likely soon debut with the Phillies but still has much to prove before he can be a regular in Philadelphia’s rotation.
Goals for 2025
There are no moral victories at this point for an organization that has had a winning record in four consecutive seasons and made three straight trips to the postseason. With an aging lineup and several skilled hurlers, Philadelphia’s chances to break through and win the franchise’s first World Series since 2008 are as good now as they will ever be.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowksi and general manager Sam Fuld could sit on their hands this winter and still roll out one of baseball’s best rosters next season, but they can push this team over the top by adding high-end talent to the bullpen. This will be especially necessary considering an expected resurgence by the Braves, who had won six straight division titles before a tough run of injuries and slumps this year.
Fantasy focus
There will be no shortage of Phillies in the early rounds of fantasy drafts. Harper and Turner will be the first team members off the board, likely in Round 2. They will be followed by Wheeler and Nola, with Wheeler drafted as a fantasy ace and Nola as a No. 2 starter. Schwarber will also be an early round selection, and Castellanos, Realmuto, Stott, Sánchez and Suárez will all be viable middle-round options. If the team settles on a closer before spring training, he’ll be a popular fantasy pick as well.
