The unpredictability of horses is often cited as the reason for a shock result in the sport of kings. But sometimes it is not just the favourite under-performing and an outsider over-performing. Sometimes the bookmakers have got it wrong and sometimes the punters have not done all their homework – or they have fallen for the hype surrounding a horse.
Either way a horse’s starting price is a great indication of a shock result and over the years racing has been full of them. These are the 10 greatest upsets in racing history.
10. Prince of Penzance in the 2015 Melbourne Cup
The six-year-old made history with Michelle Payne, who became the first female jockey to win the race that stops the nation – a race worth £2 million to the winner. A film was even made about the pair. However, it is often forgotten that he was 100-1.
Second in a Group Two on his previous starts – suggesting he was in good order – but without much great form before that, he and his jockey failed to capture the betting public’s imagination before the race. It was a different story afterwards.
9. Tipperary Tim in the 1928 Grand National
A 100-1 winner. On going out to ride Tipperary Tim, his amateur jockey Bill Dutton was told that “he’d only win if everything else fell”. Er, that turned out to be an accurate prediction. A pile-up happened at the Canal Turn (then an open ditch), caused by Easter Hero landing on the fence, which 22 horses refused. This whittled the field down to seven and his only rival still upright, Billy Barton, fell at the last.
The media dubbed it the Burlesque National and there were calls for it to be made easier. One of the upshots, however, was that it gave hope to everyone with a steeplechaser and there were 66 runners in 1929.
8. Maroof in the 1994 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
It happens every now and again and this was a classic case of a pacemaker being ignored, a horse getting an easy lead and then beating some very smart rivals. Owned by Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum Maroof and ridden by Richard Hills, it had been running solely for the purposes of making the pace for Mehthaaf, their No 1 ridden by Willie Carson, in the Group One mile of the season.
Maroof made all and came home at 66-1 at Ascot, a length and three quarters in front of Barathea, the 1994 European horse of the year.
7. Theodore in the 1822 St Leger
Is a big-priced winner really a shock result or is it just the collective bad judgment of punters? Theodore, a 200-1 shot in the 1822 Classic had won his four previous starts, including the York Spring St Leger. In the field of 23 he was one of four runners trained by James Croft. But, almost two centuries before social media became a thing, word got out that he had finished a bad last (and lame) of the four in a gallop a week before the race. John Jackson was so upset when told he was riding Theodore that the jockey burst into tears. He was not crying afterwards.
6. Stalbridge Colonist in the 1966 Hennessy Gold Cup
The grey, given a great tactical ride by Stan Mellor, was not a huge price at 25-1 but he was the outsider of the six runners who, that day, included the imperious Arkle going for a hat-trick in the race.
But a handicap is a handicap – designed to level up ability by weight – and Mellor, figuring he could do Arkle for a bit of speed getting 35lb, sat in Pat Taaffe’s slipstream up the straight at Newbury and pulled to go past only going to the last, which Stalbridge Colonist met on a perfect stride. He won by half a length.
5. Snow Knight in the 1974 Derby
The Peter Nelson-trained colt, ridden by Brian Taylor, was sent off at 50-1 as much for his fractious temperament as his form, having been beaten in both his trials. The first two in the betting had been first and second in the Guineas, while Snow Knight was friendless in the market.
He unseated Taylor in the parade but his lad hung on to him so he did not get loose. In the race he led from halfway and won comfortably by two lengths.
4. Norton’s Coin in the 1990 Gold Cup
Trained in South Wales by his small-time owner-trainer Sirrell Griffiths and ridden by Graham McCourt, Norton’s Coin was unconsidered for a race which included the previous year’s winner Desert Orchid, Toby Tobias and Pegwell Bay. But in three previous starts at Cheltenham he had never been out of the first two. On the day and on good to firm ground (which you would never get now) it all came together.
He travelled better than any of his rivals and beat Toby Tobias by two lengths with Desert Orchid third. From the size of the yard to the stature of the horse going into the race, it was one of the ultimate sporting examples of David beating Goliath.
3. Equinoctial in the 1990 Grants Whisky Novices’ Hurdle
This one holds a special place in British betting history for winning at the longest odds of 250-1. The gelding had won a point-to-point in Ireland before being bought by permit holder Norman Miller, who trained near Sedgefield. He came into the December race having pulled up in two of his previous four races, fallen in another and finished eighth, beaten 62 lengths.
Afterwards he joined an unknown young jump trainer called Michael Dods, better known now as a Group One-winning Flat trainer.
2. Arcangues in the 1993 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Ignored by most of the betting public, who thought he had an impossible task taking on the best American horse on dirt, an alien surface to which turf horses do not usually take kindly, as City of Troy demonstrated. André Fabre’s five-year-old was not especially good in Europe and, unable to either speak French or find Fabre in the Santa Anita paddock, jockey Jerry Bailey was given no instructions but he came through to win by a comfortable two lengths from the favourite. He still remains the only European winner of the Classic when run on dirt.
1. Foinavon in the 1967 Grand National
This remains the definitive “no-hoper wins the biggest race”.
The slow chaser, ridden by John Buckingham and trained by John Kempton, was the only horse to come through a melee at the 23rd fence, ironically the smallest on the course, when a blinkered loose horse, Popham Down, famously ran down the fence and caused carnage. All the opposition either fell, refused, were brought down, ran out or just fired their jockey out of the saddle. 100-1 is by no means the longest-priced winner in history but to “do a Foinavon” is still common currency in sports commentary for winning against all the odds and capitalising on the misfortune of others.
Because of the drama, it has never been surpassed as racing’s greatest upset.
