U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to depart Thursday for Munich and later this week will visit the Middle East amid an intensive diplomatic push to end Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, as well as efforts to follow up on U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan for the post-war Gaza Strip.
Preparations are also underway for Rubio to hold talks with his counterparts from Japan and South Korea on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, according to people familiar with the plan who spoke with VOA on condition of anonymity.
If the meeting takes place as expected, it would be the first U.S.-Japan-South Korea foreign ministerial trilateral under the Trump administration.
Ukraine
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches its third year, the U.S. is pursuing multiple diplomatic avenues to secure a peace deal.
Although not directly linked to efforts to secure a peace deal, U.S. officials have described Russia’s Tuesday release of American schoolteacher Marc Fogel as “a show of good faith from the Russians” and “a sign that we are moving in the right direction to end” the brutal war in Ukraine.
Rubio has said that the U.S. will reaffirm its determination to end the war during meetings at the Munich Security Conference, a high-profile international security forum running from Feb. 14 to 16.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are set to hold in-person talks in Munich. U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg and Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, will also attend the conference.
Ukraine has said that its delegation will present its position on ending the war and outline its vision for achieving a lasting peace. Meanwhile, negotiations are in progress as Ukraine seeks security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe.
Ukraine is willing to offer U.S. companies lucrative reconstruction contracts, Zelenskyy told The Guardian newspaper in an interview this week. He also said that if Trump manages to bring him and Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, he would offer a land swap: Ukrainian-occupied territory in Kursk in exchange for Russian-held land in Ukraine.
Rare earth minerals
Trump has expressed interest in making continued military aid conditional on access to Ukraine’s raw materials.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent visited Kyiv on Wednesday for talks on energy and rare earth minerals. He is the first cabinet-level official in the Trump administration to visit the country.
More than four dozen minerals, including several types of rare earths, nickel and lithium, are considered critical to the U.S. economy and national defense. Ukraine has large deposits of uranium, lithium and titanium.
Russia has gained control over a significant portion of Ukraine’s identified mineral resources in the territories it occupies. If Russia permanently seizes that land, Ukraine will lose access to those minerals and other reserves, which would be a blow to both European and U.S. security.
First US-Japan-ROK trilateral
Rubio’s expected talks with both Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Munich would take place amid concerns over North Korea’s military ties with Russia, China’s support for Russia’s defense industry, and security challenges in the Indo-Pacific.
On Jan. 21, Rubio met with Iwaya in Washington to discuss strengthening U.S.-Japan cooperation against global security threats, including what officials describe as “China’s destabilizing actions” in the Indo-Pacific. The following day, he spoke with Cho by phone, where both emphasized the need to further trilateral cooperation among the U.S., Japan and South Korea.
“We need to do more and strengthen relationships with our friends around the world,” said Republican Congressman Rob Wittman of Virginia during a discussion hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, on Tuesday.
“We should be concerned about China’s growing relationships with countries like Russia,” he added. Wittman serves as the vice chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.
He described the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea as “transactional,” adding that Moscow’s technology transfers to Pyongyang are not out of the “goodness of the heart.”
The U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral framework was established under former president Joe Biden’s administration.
Experts, including former senior State Department official Rick Waters, note that such trilateral cooperation has become increasingly institutionalized, making it “hard to reverse” — even amid South Korea’s political turmoil following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment over his brief martial law attempt last December.
“I’d be very surprised if, in four years, we would see anything other than further consolidation” of existing U.S. alliance frameworks in the Indo-Pacific,” Waters said Tuesday at the CSIS event.
Middle East
Rubio will travel to the Middle East after holding talks with his counterparts in Munich.
On Tuesday, he spoke with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan ahead of his visit to Abu Dhabi, the country’s capital, next week.
They “discussed the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the importance of ensuring that Hamas releases all hostages, including American citizens,” according to the State Department.
Spokesperson Tammy Bruce said that the two also “highlighted the imperative of ensuring that Hamas can never rule Gaza or threaten Israel again” during the call.
Trump said this week the Hamas militant group must release all hostages held in Gaza by midday Saturday, or he will propose canceling the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
Rubio is scheduled to travel to Munich, Jerusalem, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi from Feb. 13-18.
