Russia left Bashir Al-Assad’s regime in the lurch last week, merely offering the dictator sanctuary, but the Kremlin remains keen to maintain its interest in the country and has established relations with new Syrian government, MEPs and experts tell Euronews.
Rapidly collapse of Syrian regime was even for experts following topic big surprise. The same surprising was that Russia – traditional Assad’s ally – this time did not decide to react and to support Syrian dictator. What was the reason? Russia is not enough strong to deal with several conflicts in the same time. Moscow had to choose priority and it was war in Ukraine. But according to experts, withdrawing Russian troops from Syria does not mean that Kremlin has lost interest in the region. Specially that Syria is a sort of gate do the Middle East.
Ivars Ijabs, MEP from Latvia (RENEW) in interview for Euronews confirms that Ukraine is for Russia the most important. – “Main theater for Russian Federation is of course Ukraine because we all know how things are developing. Probably will be some changes with new American administration and they are concentrating just there. Decission was to prioritase Ukraine not the Syrian one”.
Till now Russia was very clear in her support for Assad. In 2015 after his request Russia launched a military intervention in Syria by sending different sort of troops (also Wagner Group) to fight against both: Syrian opposition and the Islamic State. Military support included air strikes across Syria. In 2017 Russian government decided to deploy soldiers permanently. So Russia had possibility to help Assad. But when rebels took the control of Syria, Russia did not use its military force to support the regime as in the past. The only one gesture was offering refuge to Assad and his family.
Another RENEW MEP, Nikola Minchev from Bulgaria is explaining lack of Kremlin engagement in Syrian on similar way:
“The Russians efforts are purely focused on the war in Ukraine and even in the war in Ukraine, they need support from North Korea. So this is why they were simply not able to afford any assistance to Assad’s regime in Syria. And this is why this time he wasn’t able to hold his positions”.
After almost 3 years of war in Ukraine Russia had to reduce her engagement in other conflicts including Africa, Middle East and of course Syria. ” Kremlin is focused right now on the frontline in Ukraine. We have seen it clearly in the summer when Ukraine could invade into the Kursk oblast and we have seen that it was very tinmline of defence. It also showed that main focus is frontline in Donbas” – says dr Joris Van Bladen, expert, from Egmont Institute in Brussels.
But all these development does not mean that Russia is completely loosing its interest in Syria. In contrary, Russia is playing a more complex game by establishing relations with new Syrian government. It also might be consider as a surprise specially that even recently Russian authorities and media used to call opposition “terrorists”. Russia also pretended that is protecting Christian minority in Syria. Before the war started in 2015 in Syria around 10 percent of population (1,5 millions people) were Christians, mostly linked with Orthodox church, after 9 years Christians population was reduced to around 2 percent (300 000). And Russia does not care on them anymore.
“We have seen that Russian propaganda and communication landscape has changed immediately, literally over night. And it is obviously that Russia wants to establish relationships with new government as could as possible in order to protect military assets they have in Syria. And this is important because it is Russian access to the Middle East – is adding Joris Van Bladen.
And it might be the point. Russia used to have two military bases in Syria which are strategically important: the Tartus naval base on the Mediterranean coast and the Khmeimim Air Base near the port city of Latakia. That’s why Kremlin is looking for a compromise with new Syrian regime. For a moment not only future but also presence is not clear. There are many contradicted information from region. According to Russian state media Moscow has secured the fate of the bases as part of a deal. But Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia is already pulling out its weapons and military equipment. So it’s quite difficult to analyze situation. But one thing is sure – basing on previous experience it is very likely that Russia might even try to pretend to be peacemaker in Syria.
