“STABLE PATH”
South Korean media reported that CIO officials had wanted to arrest Yoon and take him to their office in Gwacheon near Seoul for questioning.
After that, he could have been held for up to 48 hours on the existing warrant. Investigators would have needed to apply for another arrest warrant to keep him in custody.
If Yoon is arrested before that date, the CIO will have 48 hours to either request a new warrant for his formal arrest or release him.
Even if Jan 6 comes and goes, the CIO can reapply for the same seven-day detention warrant.
If they fail to detain Yoon before the Jan 6 deadline, investigators could seek a new, stronger arrest warrant that would allow them to detain him longer than the 48 hours allowed under the current court order.
Experts say the likelihood of a court approving it is not low, given that Yoon has already refused to appear for questioning three times and has not complied with the existing warrant.
The stronger warrant is typically issued when “a suspect refuses to cooperate with the investigation”, political commentator Park Sang-byung told AFP.
Yoon has also “incited and encouraged extreme (right-wing) supporters, which could be seen as effectively admitting to the criminal charges in the eyes of the court,” he added.
But executing this type of warrant, even if issued by the court, may not be feasible if Yoon again refuses to leave his residence with the assistance of his security forces, which include a military unit.
Yoon has remained defiant and told his right-wing supporters this week he would fight “to the very end” for his political survival.
By the time investigators arrived to arrest Yoon, he had layered his presidential compound with hundreds of security forces to prevent it.
Around 20 investigators and 80 police officers were heavily outnumbered by around 200 soldiers and security personnel linking arms to block their way.
A tense six-hour stand-off ensued until Friday afternoon when the investigators were forced to U-turn.
The investigators said in a statement on Friday they would ask Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, who was installed as acting president a week ago, to back the warrant.
Choi, a member of Yoon’s ruling People Power Party who also serves as deputy prime minister and finance minister, is yet to comment on the issue.
Experts suggest that if Choi orders the security service to cooperate, the chances of Yoon being arrested before the Jan 6 deadline will increase.
But the acting president has already faced severe backlash from his party for appointing two new justices to fill three vacancies on the Constitutional Court.
That decision has increased the likelihood of the court upholding Yoon’s impeachment – with at least six out of eight needed to back the decision.
Given the situation, “it is unlikely that Choi would cooperate with the CIO’s request,” Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, told AFP.
Choi’s short-lived predecessor in the role of acting president and prime minister, Han Duck-soo, was impeached by lawmakers who argued he refused a key opposition demand to install three extra judges at the Constitutional Court, viewed as impeding Yoon’s potential removal from office.
