Catapulted to power on an anti-corruption platform, Sri Lanka’s new Marxist-leaning president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, faces an uphill task in meeting his commitments to clean up the country’s political culture and improving lives for millions mired in poverty since the country’s economic collapse two years ago, say analysts.
With his party having only three lawmakers in the 225-member parliament, Dissanayake has called for fresh elections a year ahead of schedule to choose a new house that could give him wider support for the sweeping reforms that he has promised.
“Dissanayake’s hope would be to secure a comfortable majority in parliament,” according to Jayadeva Uyangoda, a political analyst in the Sri Lankan capital, Colombo, told VOA. “In the past, it was customary for mainstream parties to bribe opposition lawmakers to join them, but his main plank is clean governance, so he will need to win the numbers.”
In a country that rejected mainstream parties in the presidential polls, there is what Uyangoda calls a “very good chance” that he will be able to substantially improve his party’s parliamentary tally. Elections will be held on Nov. 14.
Currently, Dissanayake has the smallest cabinet in the country’s history as he lacks the numbers for a full-fledged cabinet. He has named a new prime minister, Harini Amarasuriya, and two ministers — in Sri Lanka, only lawmakers can be appointed as ministers.
Winning wider support will be crucial. “Otherwise attempts to deliver on his election promises can be blocked by knee-jerk opposition, due to differences in ideology or political opportunism,” Rajni Gamage, a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, told VOA.
Meeting expectations of relief from the punishing austerity measures imposed by a $ 2.9 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund is the first big test Dissanayake faces. He will handle the key finance portfolio.
His pledge to renegotiate Sri Lanka’s deal with the IMF – which he says is not favorable to working class citizens — will not be easy at a time when the country is still heavily debt-ridden and has limited room to expand welfare measures. The package has helped steer the economy back to a nascent growth path, but the government will need to stick to the program’s criteria of keeping the budget deficit in check.
An IMF spokesman in Washington said on Monday that it looked forward to working with President Dissanayake “towards building on the hard-won gains that have helped put Sri Lanka on a path to economic recovery.”
While options for providing relief may be limited, analysts said Dissanayake is expected to reduce income taxes for lower income groups and lower taxes on food and medicine.
There is also concern among the business community about the position the Marxist leader, the son of a laborer, will take on free market policies.
The policies of his Marxist party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, are aligned with protectionism, according to Gamage. “Their party’s economic growth policy is woven around prioritizing industrialization and domestic manufacturing, supporting local businesses and agriculture.”
However, Dissanayake now heads a coalition, the National People’s Power, an umbrella group of small political parties, youth, civil society and women’s groups and trade unions.
In recent years he has also moderated his party’s hard-left stance and said he believes in an open economy.
“The business class is uneasy because of the Marxist tradition to which he belongs. But my sense is that Dissanayake is a very pragmatic and rational man,” Jehan Perera, who heads the National Peace Council in Colombo, told VOA. “And the coalition the president heads is not a Marxist group.”
Delivering on the clean governance he has promised could also face a pushback.
“Corruption is very deep-seated in the system. It is endemic in society and goes from top to bottom, so rooting it out is very tough,” said Perera. “He will face strong vested interests to rebuild a system that has broken down. But on the positive side, he has the support of the people.”
After taking the oath of office, Dissanayake sounded a note of caution amid the widespread optimism raised by his victory among millions of Sri Lankans, saying he is not a “magician” but an “ordinary citizen.”
“There are things I know and don’t know. My aim is to gather those with the knowledge and skills to help lift this country,” he said on Monday.
The coming months will be crucial for a country that is navigating a vastly altered political landscape.
“The management of the economic crisis and management of public expectations will be his biggest challenge, otherwise discontent will grow again,” said analyst Uyangoda. “Past leaders have all belonged to the political elite. This is the first time there is a president who belongs to the working class, so the hopes of the ordinary people are very, very high.”
