Telegram is widely used by the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, and the platform is strictly regulated by the Kremlin.
Pavel Durov’s arrest could complicate Russian military plans in Ukraine.
Telegram is very popular among Russian speakers and plays a crucial role in the war in Ukraine, both for the operations on the gorund and for the spreading of Moscow’s narrative.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, it is “the main alternative to official communications for Russian military personnel in Ukraine”.
As Christine Dugoin-Clément, a researcher at the Sorbonne Business School, explained to Euronews:
“It’s not just a news source, but it’s a kind of key messenger, that is used for coordination of action at different levels, to store videos, to share large files and all this kind of things, and you’ve got a lot of channels more or less directly connected with the Kremlin or with the Department of Defense of Russia.”
Telegram is an encrypted chat and avoided being put under Russian government control in 2018. But according to experts, the Kremlin has managed to manipulate it, having brought in stricter legislation of its activities.
Christine Dugoin-Clément again:
“The owners of channels that have gathered more than 10,000 followers have to provide information to Roskomnadzor, which is more or less the organization in charge of controlling all the medias and social networks. In the same law, they are explaining that if you’ve got a channel who is followed by more than 500,000 users, you have to provide all the information on your users if Roskomnadzoror or the FSB is asking for it. So there is, not a control exactly, but let’s say a kind cooperation.
With its CEO in prison in a European country, Russian forces may start leaving Telegram, which in the extreme scenario could also be totally blocked in the country.
This uncertainty will likely impact Russian frontline operations, even if it seems unlikely that the French authorities could disclose the information contained in the encrypted chats.
Axel Legay of the Ecole Polytechnique de Louvain tells Euronews:
“They could try to do so. It would be illegal, because at the EU level there is no decision about being allowed to read messages. Three months ago, the EU could not reach an agreement on this. So yeah, they could try this with secret services or whatever. But I really don’t think that’s that’s the main problem now.”
Durov’s detention is turning into a diplomatic incident between France and Russia. The Russian embassy in Paris has accused France of refusing to cooperate, but French President Macron insisted that the arrest was not a ‘political decision’.
