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British broadcasters have warned that terrestrial television is in danger of becoming economically unviable as more people opt to watch online, according to a UK government-commissioned report about the future of TV.
The report, produced by media watchdog Ofcom and published on Thursday, found many broadcasters and other industry groups predicted a “tipping point” when it would be impossible to support terrestrial TV in its current form.
In responses to questions from Ofcom, these groups warned that rising distribution costs meant that, as the time audiences spend watching terrestrial TV declines, it would become much less cost effective per viewer to serve those who remain on it.
Any switch-off of terrestrial TV would particularly hit older and poorer audiences, who are less likely to have high speed broadband needed for the next generation of streaming and internet TV services.
Ofcom laid out three options that could sustain the universal availability of TV services: a more efficient, cheaper terrestrial service; cutting it down to a core service, or “nightlight”, of main channels; or moving towards switch-off of terrestrial channels in the 2030s with support for those who need it.
Ofcom said with many multiplex broadcasting licences expiring in 2034, and some sooner, the need for certainty about the future approach was “increasingly pressing”.
Many broadcasting executives acknowledge that most viewers will probably be online in 10 years, leaving a rump of viewers unable or unwilling to watch via broadband rather than with a traditional TV aerial.
According to Ofcom, about 5.3mn households access TV solely over the internet, compared with 3.9mn households that rely on traditional TV services. Most homes use both options, though the balance is shifting online.
Those households more likely to rely only on terrestrial TV included people who were older, less affluent, or had a disability, Ofcom said.
Broadcast 2040+, a campaign group to safeguard terrestrial TV and radio after 2040, said: “Without certainty about its future, millions who use and rely on broadcast services, including many of the most vulnerable in society and those who cannot or do not wish to pay for superfast broadband or who lack digital skills, face the threat of TV exclusion.”
More people are shunning TV altogether for social media or other internet services, however.
Ofcom said the average person in the UK spent a quarter less time watching daily broadcast TV in 2023 than in 2018, at 149 minutes. Viewing of scheduled TV channels through terrestrial TV is forecast by the watchdog to drop from 62 per cent of viewing of total long form programmes in 2023 to 28 per cent by 2035, and 22 per cent by 2040.
Ed Leighton, Ofcom’s director of strategy and policy, said terrestrial television “faces big long-term challenges and audiences who rely on it deserve a solution that is sustainable and fit for the future”.
In response to the Ofcom consultation, the BBC said it expected a “tipping point in the coming years where the cost per head . . . is no longer viable for one or many of the broadcasters that currently collectively make them viable”.
The corporation said broadcast viewing was already in decline among all audience groups, and particularly among younger audiences. “Embracing and improving [internet TV] is the only way to meet all audience needs and expectations for quality and choice — and to future-proof universality,” the national broadcaster added.
US media group Paramount, which owns Channel 5, warned that there “may come a point in which distribution by [terrestrial TV] for commercial broadcasters is simply not viable”.
It said in response to the consultation that the cost per viewer had to represent “reasonable economic value to a commercial public service broadcaster” and this “should not compromise Channel 5’s ability to invest”.
