Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down the widening gender gap in polls of the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Plus, we report on how VP contender and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s position on abortion rights is getting a second look.
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The gender gap widens in the Harris-Trump contest
By Mark Murray
A slew of national and battleground state polls since President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race find a much closer contest than we saw after his dismal debate performance.
But these polls reveal another important dynamic: an enormous gender gap between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris — in some cases bigger than the one in 2016 and 2020.
Take the recent New York Times/Siena College poll. Harris holds a 14-point lead over Trump among likely female voters (55% to 41%), while Trump holds a 17-point lead among men (56% to 39%). That’s a net 31-point gender gap.
It’s even bigger in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, where women are breaking for Harris by 16 points (56% to 40%) and men are siding with Trump by 23 points (60% to 37%). (Note: The Quinnipiac poll was conducted before and after Biden exited the 2024 race.) That’s a whopping 39-point gender gap.
Compare that to the race between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016, when the NBC News exit poll found the net gender gap at 24 points. In the exit poll after the 2020 Biden-Trump contest, that figure stood at 23 points.
Now, other recent surveys show a smaller gender gap. CNN’s national poll had it at 16 points between Harris and Trump, and one from NPR/PBS/Marist was a mere 4 points.
And remember, these kinds of demographic deep dives have larger margins of error — so numbers are bound to fluctuate from poll to poll.
But in general, these new polls underscore how a widening gender gap could be a significant factor in the new Harris-Trump race — as well as how Trump’s advantage among men seems larger than Harris’ edge among women.
Veepstakes: Beshear’s abortion record gets fresh scrutiny
By Adam Edelman, Yamiche Alcindor, Amanda Terkel, Sahil Kapur, Alex Seitz-Wald
One of Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear‘s strengths in the race to become Harris’ running mate is that he could appeal to centrist voters as a Democrat who won re-election in a state that Donald Trump carried by more than 20 percentage points.
Beshear won his 2023 campaign, in part, by leaning into his support for abortion rights in a state where the procedure is almost entirely banned. Yet for some reproductive rights advocates in Kentucky, Beshear has not done enough on an issue that is critical for the party nationally — which could factor into his chances of joining the presidential ticket.
“The low bar here doesn’t help him,” said Savannah Trebuna, the abortion fund director at Kentucky Health Justice Network, a Louisville-based reproductive rights organization, referring to the expectations for a Democratic governor in a red state.
“Yes, he’s doing better than a conservative would, and I’m thankful for that,” she continued. “But I worry about how that record will look on a national stage.”
Critics point to Beshear’s choice of a self-described “personally pro-life” Democrat, Jacqueline Coleman, to be his lieutenant governor; his focus on rare exceptions when talking about abortion; and that his administration has avoided working closely with reproductive rights groups in the state.
During his first gubernatorial campaign in 2019, Beshear’s allies clashed behind the scenes with reproductive rights groups over what message to run in ads, with Beshear’s team wanting to focus less on abortion and more on the unpopular Republican incumbent, according to a source involved in the effort.
The question is whether Beshear’s approach would serve as a liability by muddling Democrats’ message, or as a benefit by having a governor who has won on the issue in a red state.
“I think everybody’s looking for the perfect candidate. There is no such thing,” said former Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky. “Voters who are persuadable at this point are not issue voters. If you’re an issue voter, you’ve already made up your mind. They’re more visceral voters, and that’s why I think Andy’s got a great strength — because he reeks of empathy.”
More on Harris’ running mate search:
🗞️ Today’s top stories
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⚖️ Full court press: Biden called for a series of Supreme Court reforms, including an 18-year term limit for justices, tougher ethics rules and a constitutional amendment stating that former presidents are not immune from criminal indictments. Read more →
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🔍 FBI update: An FBI official told reporters that Trump has agreed to participate in a victim interview on his attempted assassination, and the bureau’s investigation has not yet determined the shooter’s motive. Read more →
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❓ Who is Timothy Mellon? The New York Times has a deep dive on Timothy Mellon, the mysterious billionaire who has spent tens of millions to boost Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the 2024 campaign. Read more →
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📵 Combating ‘deep fakes’: The Federal Communications Commission is proposing a first-of-its-kind rule to mandate disclosure of AI-generated content in political ads, though it may not go into force before the election. Read more →
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👀 Iowa abortion ban: A new law in Iowa barring most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy took effect on Monday. Read more →
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🪙 Crypto chatter: Trump addressed the annual Bitcoin Conference over the weekend, promising to make America “the crypto capital of the planet and bitcoin superpower of the world.” Read more →
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🏠 Home-buying in battleground Nevada: NBC News’ Shannon Pettypiece delves into the challenges facing potential homebuyers in Washoe County, Nevada, a key swing county in a crucial battleground state. Read more →
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🌵 Endorsements all around: Trump is hedging his bets in a competitive GOP primary in Arizona ahead of Tuesday’s elections. After initially backing Republican Abe Hamadeh for an open House seat, Trump also endorsed one of Hamadeh’s chief opponents, Blake Masters. Read more →
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On the record: Compare where Harris and Trump stand on key issues →
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Stay up to date on the latest 2024 election news with our live blog →
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
