This past year has been a trying time for the spirits market, and the latest bad news applies specifically to sales of high-end whiskies at auction. According to an article in the Financial Times, the market for rare scotch whisky has plummeted, with auction sales of collectible bottles decreasing by about 40 percent over the past year.
The Financial Times story cites information provided by Edinburgh investment bank Noble & Co., which said that “bottles of whisky sold globally for more than £1,000 declined 34 percent by volume and 40 percent in value in the year to October 1.” That’s a pretty significant decline in an already softening market, and along with future Trump administration tariffs looming the outlook is bleak. Noble & Co. points to the poor state of the global economy, with high rates of inflation leading consumers to cut back on purchasing high-end bottles. “The bubble in which fine and rare scotch whisky has been traded for so long may have finally burst,” Duncan McFadzean, head of food and drink at Noble & Co., told the Times. He went on to note that as the pandemic wound down there was a bump in sales, but that seems to be over. “The industry thought it was going to be the ‘roaring 20s’ but the reality has been much, much tougher. The industry ran straight into the wall of the cost of living—volumes have been falling and you’ve had profit warning after profit warning from majors.”
That is a trend that we’ve covered here in recent weeks as well, as companies like Diageo have had to contend with stock shares decreasing in value, while others like Pernod Ricard have reported declines in sales of high-end spirits. Jonny Fowle, global head of whisky and spirits at Sotheby’s, has a unique view of the situation given the nature of his job, and he told the Times that whiskies immediately skyrocketing in price at auction is a thing of the past. He points to distilleries and producers marking up more recent releases way too high with the assumption that they will command the same prices they once did, although older bottlings like the Macallan 50-year-old Lalique are still selling for way more than they were originally listed. “It’s understandable not to want to leave profit on the table,” he told the Times. “But it’s a shortsighted endeavour—it’s pricing investors and drinkers out of the market.”
McFadzean said there is some hope that the Asian market could offset the damage that Trump’s tariffs might do down the road, but given the state of the economy in countries like China this might not be the case. It remains to be seen how all of this will play out, and perhaps there will another resurgence in the value of rare whisky over the next few years—which could mean this is a good time to start bidding on some old bottles of Bowmore and Ardbeg.
