October is just around the corner, and around that corner is November, which means free agency is drawing ever closer.
Here’s another update to our free-agent power rankings.
Note: Whenever you see a number, a slash and another number, that’s a reference to contract years and total earnings. For instance, the shorthand for Bryce Harper’s 11-year, $330 million deal would be “11/330.” Ages listed below are for the 2025 season.
Previous editions: MLB free-agent rankings 1.0 | MLB free-agent rankings 2.0
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What else is there to say? He’s the best player on the market, and it’s not close. His free-agent contract will start with a five; remember, he turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Nats in 2022. Yankees fans can chant “PLEASE STAY, SOTO” all they want, but this will likely come down to the biggest dollar figure.
I think people are sleeping on Adames. The Athletic had him at No. 17 on their recent rankings, which is much too low. Adames is a 28-year-old shortstop on pace to finish the season with around 5.0 fWAR. He has been scorching hot (.941 OPS) since the break. Dansby Swanson hit free agency in the winter of 2022 with an inferior track record and received a seven-year, $177 million contract; that feels like Adames’ floor. People around the game also view the Dominican-born shortstop as an elite clubhouse presence.
4. Max Fried, Braves SP, age 31
Both hurlers have seen their stock slip since the All-Star break. Burnes has fallen out of AL Cy Young contention with a 5.75 ERA in his past seven starts. Fried missed a handful of July starts due to a forearm issue and has looked fine in five starts since returning. Burnes’ contract number probably starts with a two, while the floor for Fried is Carlos Rodón’s 6/162. There’s an argument to have Fried grouped with Snell, further down this top 10, but I think the southpaw’s long track record of success is a separator: He has the fourth-lowest ERA in MLB since 2020.
His batted-ball quality has gradually improved since a frigid start to the season. Bregman is no longer the MVP candidate he was a few years back, but he’s also not the listless ghost we saw for the first six weeks of 2024. That all points to a number right around $200. Bregman will be highly sought after.
6. Blake Snell (opt-out), Giants SP, age 32
All the reigning NL Cy Young needed was time. After a stop-start first few months during which he fended off a series of nagging injuries, Snell has rediscovered his peak form. Since the All-Star break, the goateed southpaw has a 1.66 ERA across seven starts, the best mark in the National League. Expect him to opt out of the contract he inked last winter with San Francisco, giving agent Scott Boras another big-ticket item this winter.
Not much has changed with Alonso. He’s still a right-handed-hitting first baseman, which scares teams. He’s a great hitter, but not an elite one. There is a chasm between what Alonso was once hoping to get ($200 million) and what he’s likely to get (closer to $125). Still, he slots above the following group of hitters because of his multiyear track record.
Santander’s home run heater has not ceased. Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have more this season. Surely that longball prowess should push Santander higher than eighth, no? Well, the switch-hitting outfielder has a few unavoidable warts: He’s a mediocre defender, and he walks less than you’d like for a middle-of-the-order bat. Still, Santander has carried the water-treading Orioles for long stretches of the summer, and 40-homer sluggers don’t grow on trees.
The Home Run Derby champ, on a one-year, $23.5 million deal with the Dodgers, hasn’t shown signs of slowing. August, in fact, was his best statistical month. He ranks behind Santander because he’s older and not a switch-hitter, but Hernández ranks ahead of Profar because there’s a much longer track record.
This year has been a better-late-than-never breakout for the former top prospect, who is currently leading the National League in OBP. Profar has also been, statistically speaking, the most clutch hitter in baseball this season. Whether that’s enough for a team to commit big years and dollars for a player who was solidly mediocre for a decade remains to be seen.
Flaherty was stoked to be traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. He’s an L.A. kid who grew up a Dodgers fan and now gets to pitch for a playoff team. But more importantly for his free agency, he’s no longer a candidate to be saddled with the qualifying offer that could have stunted his market (players traded midseason are not eligible).
12. Matt Chapman (opt-out), Giants 3B, age 31
This is the first iteration of these rankings that features Chapman, who jumps onto this list because, well, he’s definitely going to be a free agent. San Francisco’s third baseman has an opt-out in his contract with the Giants, and because he struggled somewhat for the first few months of the season, it was unclear whether he’d reenter the market. But a strong second half has all but ensured another free-agency go-around for Chapman, who seems a good bet to earn better than the 3/54 pact he got last winter.
13. Cody Bellinger (opt-out), Cubs OF/1B, age 29
It has been an uninspiring season for Bellinger on the North Side, which leaves the industry split on whether he’ll opt out. There are two years and $53 million and change left on the deal he signed with the Cubs last winter, and while his offensive numbers have taken a step back from his resurgent 2023, he’s still an above-average hitter who can play center field. That defensive ability is why I think he will opt out; there aren’t any other true center fielders on the market.
The Arizona first baseman has been out since June 30 due to an oblique issue but is expected back soon. Even though his numbers haven’t shifted in a while, he remains a fascinating free-agent proposition as a relatively older corner bat with a long track record of bashing baseballs.
15. Ha-Seong Kim (opt-out), Padres IF, age 29
San Diego’s shortstop has just one home run in his past 42 games. That’s a concerning lull in power output for a player who doesn’t hit for a particularly high average and is more of a solid shortstop defender than a Gold Glover. Then again, there just aren’t too many players who can hack it defensively at the most difficult infield position, which should make Kim a hot commodity despite his offensive issues.
Houston was slammed for overpaying for the Japanese southpaw at the deadline, but so far, Kikuchi has delivered for the Astros, with a 2.89 ERA in five starts. With a revamped approach — he’s throwing his slider more and his curveball less — a rejuvenated Kikuchi could secure another multiyear deal this winter.
17. Tyler O’Neill, Red Sox outfielder, age 30
Oh, the irony of a comically ripped dude who gets injured all the time. Is that irony? Somebody ask Morissette. O’Neill’s .261 batting average this year has been somewhat artificially inflated by good batted-ball luck, but he still has 23 homers in 87 games. That’s a 40-homer pace if he could stay healthy, which is always the biggest if with the Canadian outfielder.
The lefty-swinging Pederson is entirely a platoon bat at this point. He has more than 300 more plate appearances this year against right-handed pitching than against left-handed pitching. But he still absolutely rakes. Only seven players have a higher OPS against righties this season. Is that enough to secure Pederson a multiyear deal?
Wacha has one year and $16 million left on his Royals deal. The veteran right-hander is a good bet to opt out; he’s top-20 in MLB in ERA and has made at least 23 starts in nine of the past 10 seasons.
The Yankees’ low-energy second baseman has bounced back offensively the past two months, but he remains a defensive embarrassment at second. That said, he has performed well in a small sample since being moved to the leadoff spot on Aug. 16. Maybe that jump-starts his bat, which has tantalized and underwhelmed for most of his tenure in the Bronx.
Scott has remained steady since a deadline trade from San Diego to Miami, even if his strikeout rate is down a smidge in August. He’s still the most exciting reliever on the market.
22. Clay Holmes, Yankees RP, age 32
Since a horrendous stretch before the All-Star break, the Yankees closer has righted the ship. His trademark sinker will never be a top-shelf swing-and-miss offering, but it’s gathering more whiffs than it did during his horrid midseason dip.
23. Carlos Estévez, Phillies RP, age 32
Since being traded to Philly at the deadline, Estévez has allowed only three runs in 11 2/3 frames while appearing only in the ninth inning. He’s going to throw enormous high-leverage innings in October and feels like a lock to improve on the 2/13.5 deal he got from the Angels in 2022.
Verlander has a player option that vests only if he finishes the year with at least 130 innings. He’s currently at 67, so either (1) the future Hall of Famer is throwing every pitch for Houston down the stretch or (2) he’s hitting free agency. Verlander has been pretty open about his desire to pitch until he’s 45, and while his stuff and command have looked shaky in his two starts since coming off the IL, he’s still getting enough outs to warrant another deal, even if he ends up back in Houston. Win No. 300 lurks in the distance.
25. Shane Bieber, Guardians SP, age 30
The 2020 AL Cy Young winner blew out in April after two sensational, scoreless starts. I put him at No. 25 on this list just to remind you that he’s out there, waiting …
Who fell off the Top 25:
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Alex Verdugo, Yankees OF, age 29
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Jordan Montgomery (opt-out), Diamondbacks SP, age 32
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Jeff Hoffman, Phillies RP, age 32
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Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals 1B, age 37
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JD Martinez, Mets DH, age 37
