With UFC 313 set to go down Saturday night in Las Vegas, there’s a little smoke coming off the rooftops of the T-Mobile Arena. That’s because we have some burning questions surrounding Alex Pereira’s light heavyweight title defense against Magomed Ankalaev, as well as the other fights that make up the pay-per-view.
Let’s jump right in with a little roundtable for UFC 313.
1. We’ve heard that people are bad matchups for Alex Pereira before — but is this a bad matchup? Magomed Ankalaev is a barge of a man.
Petesy Carroll: I’ve been batting down the idea of Ankalaev as some kind of light-heavyweight Khabib Nurmagomedov for a long time. I think the majority of people see him as a bad matchup for the champion because of his perceived wrestling skill set. That said, this is undeniably Alex Pereira’s toughest fight since moving to light heavyweight.
The mythology of this run has been built on Pereira stepping up on short notice, often against guys who didn’t seem fully prepared for championship fights. Jan Blachowicz ran him closest in his 205-pound debut, then Pereira vanquished Jiri Prochazka in a little over a round right as Prochazka returned from injury. Then came Jamahal Hill, who wasn’t long off the surgeon’s table himself, and then Prochazka again.
His last win came against Khalil Rountree Jr., who had a full training camp but was considered a left-field contender due to how far down the rankings he was when he got the fight offer.
Ankalaev is the most deserving contender and has been for some time. He is certainly the toughest test Pereira has had at light heavyweight, and yet I still think this is a winnable fight for “Poatan.”
Chuck Mindenhall: You know, talking to people in Pereira’s camp last week, there was a bit of a snicker when I brought up Ankalaev as any kind of Poatan kryptonite. There’s a defiance in the air, a sense that, even if Ankalaev wanted to, he wouldn’t be able to push Pereira around in the wrestling aspect. Pereira is used to singlet-first fellows at Glover Teixeira’s gym trying to budge him off his centerline.
They are using, to an extent, some of that good old-fashioned MMA math, Petesy. They think that Blachowicz actually deserved to win that fight with Ankalaev back in 2022 for the vacant 205-pound title, which officially ended in a split draw. And they think Pereira clearly beat Blachowicz, inflicting far more damage than Ankalaev was able to.
You hang around Danbury, Connecticut, and you start to feel like Ankalaev is delusional to even think he belongs in the same cage as Pereira! But you know what I can’t shake? Ankalaev has had 13 fights in a row without a loss. He deserves to be an even-money bet in this fight, and the unsung nature in which he arrives to UFC 313 might give him a slight motivational advantage. He will be the hungrier fighter come fight night.
Literally. Ramadan’s fasting is no joke.
2. Should Pereira successfully defend his title, who would you rather see him face next — Jon Jones or Tom Aspinall? Or should it be somebody else?
Chuck: I love when fighters get to these great horizons in the fight game. Should so-and-so get by X on Saturday night, it’s a choose your own adventure! We get it every now and again, but most times that X ruins all of tomorrow’s parties. Look at Kamaru Usman, who was talking about … gulp … Canelo Alvarez. Then Leon Edwards sent his head into the luxury boxes.
As crazy as it sounds, I think there’s a strange alignment in play for Pereira to challenge Oleksandr Usyk in the boxing ring. If Pereira wins and can’t get Jones or Aspinall (presuming they will be tied up with each other), that fight has a pathway now that TKO is in the boxing realm. I can’t begin to speculate on the particulars, because there is so much we don’t know, but that fight is not as far-fetched as it once was.
The only name beyond the pale that may sneak into the scenario is Dricus Du Plessis, the middleweight champ who has just enough dash and bravado to make that leap up and challenge himself against “Poatan.”
But among all of these names? I’d love to see Pereira versus Jones, though I don’t how that could happen.
Petesy: Based on what Aspinall said in his video blog, and reading between the lines of what Malki Kawa suggested on “The Ariel Helwani Show” this week, Jones has a number he desires for the heavyweight unification fight — and he’s not willing to budge unless the UFC meets him there.
(Side note: A really handsome guy wrote an article about this exact situation three weeks ago and you should check it out.)
Historically, UFC heavyweights don’t win when it comes to negotiation showdowns with the brass. If this is no different, Aspinall will be the only heavyweight option for Pereira. UFC will not reward Jones with a massive fight for refusing to do what he’s told. And if Jones vacates the title, Aspinall has already beaten every other fighter in the top five.
With a win over Ankalaev, Pereira will have successfully closed out his division, which could make another move up more likely. A fight between Jones and the Brazilian might garner more eyeballs, but the meeting of Aspinall vs. Pereira would be a far better fight.
3. We know “Poatan” is a big star — does the UFC want to be in the Magomed Ankalaev business?
Petesy: Hear me out, Chuck. Ankalaev knocks people out and doesn’t speak a lot of English. How do we know that he isn’t the perfect replacement for Pereira at this point? Is there a Russian equivalent to “Chama”? There’s got to be, right?
In all seriousness, the fact that he had to wait so long to get this opportunity speaks to how the UFC brass feel about Ankalaev. This guy fought for a vacant title against Blachowicz. When the fight was determined to be a draw, instead of doing a rematch they just gave two completely different guys the fight. If that isn’t a troubling sign, I don’t know what is.
There are few genuine stars in the sport these days, so Pereira being one of the few makes him a very valuable asset. But who knows? Maybe if he beats “Poatan,” Ankalaev will enjoy a soaring popularity like Khabib Nurmagomedov did when he won the title.
Don’t count on it, though.
Chuck: Ha, these are good points. Poor Ankalaev has waited around longer than the ankh itself. If he were a character in a movie, he’d be the smiling goon with a nonspeaking role, showing up to support a heist. That’s going to be hard to market.
The UFC will tell you that they book challengers to come in and beat the champ. Traditionally, that is the case. But you can’t tell me they wanted Jon Fitch to beat Georges St-Pierre at UFC 87, because that would be a big fat lie. Ankalaev is not a Fitch level drowse — in fact he’s kind of a crusher in there once they lock-up the gates — but he doesn’t exactly overflow with charisma.
No, Pereira is the global star right now. He makes funny videos when he’s not fighting, Power Slapping Glover Teixeira or wrestling him in the snow. He drives a Lamborghini around Danbury, a city where the next nicest car is a Volkswagen. He shows up to random events and people lose their s***. There’s no way the UFC would rather be in the Ankalaev business. Not while Pereira is the alternative.
4. What’s at stake for Justin Gaethje in his rematch with Rafael Fiziev?
Chuck: When they faced off the first time, I all but made Fiziev a lock to tamp out Justin Gaethje’s reign among the top lightweights. Boy, was I wrong. Fiziev looked like he’d tumbled a thousand yards down a rocky cliff after that encounter. He was wheezing blood.
Mulligans were invented to make things right. And if Fiziev exacts his revenge Saturday, the prophecies of that time might be realized a full two years later. What that would mean is that Gaethje the contender would become a thing of the past. It’s already been an incredible run for a guy who has next to no sense of self-preservation in the cage. He has been in roulette slobber-knockers for a long, long time.
If he wins? It’ll be another act of defiance against the laws of nature, Petesy. And my guess is, given that he always delivers maniac fights and answers the call whenever the UFC rings, that’ll keep him right there in the mix.
Petesy: The issue with this fight is that I don’t know what’s at stake. There is certainly more to be gained by Fiziev, who came up short against Gaethje in London two years ago. Back then, Gaethje upset the applecart by scraping a win by the skin of his teeth. As always with him, it was a thoroughly enjoyable contest. Two years older now at 36, and coming off the most brutal (well … only) shadow realm knockout loss of his career, a doubtful eye is being cast over the all-action knockout artist again.
Gaethje remains relevant in the title mix to some extent with a win, but there is a new, Ilia Topuria-shaped obstacle that is blocking any potential path to the belt that’s remained so painfully elusive to “The Highlight.”
5. What’s the best fight outside of the two big ones at the top?
Petesy: Bobby King vs. Mauricio Ruffy is going to be a face-melter, Chuck. Both of these lads are going bombs away from the first bell and if it manages to go the distance I’ll eat my (our your) hat.
Chuck: Now see here, I said now see here, Carroll. You leave my hat be.
I agree that the curtain jerker you’ve mentioned will deliver. That’s the right way to kick off a PPV. But the fight I like a lot on this is the Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes swing bout. In my mind, this is right when Turner should be entering his prime (he’s 29), yet he’s gone just 1-3 in his last four. Do-or-die fights like this tend to be fireworks, especially with an accommodating dance partner like Bahamondes. It’s not as guaranteed as King-Ruffy (which sounds like a character in a children’s book), but it has the potential to steal the show.
