UFC Mexico City predictions, odds, full card preview: Can Brandon Moreno get back to the belt?

UFC flyweight main events simply don’t miss.

A return to Mexico City would’ve felt wrong without the presence of former two-time champion Brandon Moreno. Therefore, the “Assassin Baby” was as fitting of a selection as could be for one half of Saturday’s UFC Mexico City main event. Standing in his way for the homecoming affair will be Australia’s Steve Erceg, who looks to snap a two-fight losing skid since emerging as a legitimate contender in 2024.

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The event is also littered with some of the finest Mexican fighters the UFC roster can offer. Stakes may be limited outside the main event, but plenty of the matchups, accompanied by the Mexico City atmosphere, should create a rocking night of action on Saturday.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

125 pounds: Brandon Moreno (-250) vs. Steve Erceg (+200)

Will Moreno ever stop being incredibly talented?

It’s easy to underappreciate Mexico’s finest because of his long career and current position in the flyweight division. Moreno first entered the UFC nearly 10 years ago. After two title reigns and performing in some of the best fights you’ll ever see, he’s still only 31 and might be improving. He’s kind of the flyweight division’s Max Holloway — impossible to finish and never far from a title shot.

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On the other hand, a lot of revisionist history can be done on Erceg after his first-round loss to Kai Kara-France in August. However, that outcome came after he gave reigning champion Alexandre Pantoja all he could handle in their May 2024 encounter. Had Erceg approached the fifth round without grappling in mind, he might be the champion right now.

Erceg has been learning on the fly, comparable to Moreno’s early start, which led him outside the promotion for a fight before he returned. That’s not to say Erceg is headed for the same fate, but Moreno is the far more polished and established competitor. There’s no debate about it.

This fight will play out primarily on the feet, focusing on boxing exchanges where each can expect to see the other land nasty blows. Erceg has displayed solid power for 125 pounds, whereas Moreno is more of an accumulative destroyer, mixing in disgusting body kicks that could shut down a heavyweight.

Although this is only Erceg’s second scheduled five-round contest, his cardio held up fine in his title bout. Moreno has sharpened his devastating tools with each new fight, though. As mentioned, he’s stupendously durable, which might be his biggest saving grace in the matchup, despite having more overall tools to unleash on his opponent.

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I don’t put stock in Moreno having any advantage because of the location. He’s actually 2-3-1 in the country and 0-2-1 in Mexico City. He’s just been better and more consistent for a longer time against the highest level the division has to offer. Erceg needs to make history by becoming the first to finish Moreno. I can’t see it.

Pick: Moreno

155 pounds: Manuel Torres (+100) vs. Drew Dober (-120)

Drew Dober feels bulletproof from a UFC release at this point in his entertaining 42-fight career. However, he still wants a win by knocking off the rising up-and-comers.

Yeah, that’s right. I’m essentially calling Dober the perfect lightweight gatekeeper — and that’s a compliment. We’ve seen his ceiling, and he’s in a territory where losses only come against names you wouldn’t be surprised by, like Jean Silva, Renato Moicano and Islam Makhachev.

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Manuel Torres is in an interesting spot. At 30, he’s a very bright talent who finishes damn near anyone put in front of him — or gets finished in the process. It’s been kill-or-be-killed through 18 fights. In his last, Torres ran into Ignacio Bahomondes, who has progressed at a quicker rate. There’s no shame in the loss, but it’s rattled oddsmakers’ belief in him.

Dober, 36, is still a competent and proficient challenge for any striker at 155 pounds. But he’s very touchable, and Torres will find that perfectly sculpted chin with 15 minutes to work.

I’m not overly confident in the prediction for this one because both men will create chaos. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

Pick: Torres

185 pounds: Kelvin Gastelum (+240) vs. Joe Pyfer (-300)

I hate to say this, but Kelvin Gastelum’s career has been the opposite of Moreno’s. They’re virtually the same age (Gastelum is 33), yet worlds apart in their divisional standings. Gastelum also reached the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter; he just did so three years earlier than Moreno. He won the show and fought at welterweight until weight struggles essentially derailed his potential.

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Here we are in 2025, and Gastelum is in more of a Dober role than that of Moreno.

Unlike Dober and more like Moreno, however, Gastelum miraculously has never been knocked out despite some close calls throughout his 29 bouts. Joe Pyfer is an absolute cannonball of a man, whether that’s with his punching power or grappling strength. The dude is a problem, despite a reality check against Jack Hermansson in February 2024.

Pyfer has every tool to neutralize Gastelum’s style. He’ll be at a boxing disadvantage from a technical aspect, but it won’t matter because of all the other variables. Plus, Pyfer heads into this clash after his good friend and teammate, Sean Brady, dominated and submitted Gastelum in late 2023. Surely they worked together in preparation for UFC Mexico City.

Pick: Pyfer

135 pounds: Raul Rosas Jr. (-450) vs. Vince Morales (+340)

It’s been a fascinating journey in the UFC thus far for the teenager Raul Rosas Jr. Primarily a grappler, Rosas has only suffered one loss in his 11-fight career, which came against Christian Rodriguez, who also fights on this card.

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This is a trap matchup as far as I’m concerned. Rosas has proven to be a very strong and talented fighter at age 20. His striking still has a long way to go, though. That hasn’t mattered outside of the Rodriguez fight, but against someone of Vince Morales’ experience, it will.

Morales’ return to the UFC hasn’t gone according to plan, with losing efforts in unanimous decisions to Taylor Lapilus and Elijah Smith. Before that, he leveled up to reach his best form, winning five straight with some brilliant performances outside the UFC. Against Rosas, Morales will be attacked by relentless takedown attempts, with Rosas finding comfort in a scramble, which could be his downfall. Morales is crafty with his submission game, scoring a variety of chokes in his recent run.

Hype has obviously been restored in Rosas as he’s won three in a row since his lone loss. I’m still not sold on him being the future of the wildly stacked bantamweight division just yet.

Pick: Morales

135 pounds: David Martinez (-400) vs. Saimon Oliveira (+310)

Showcase fights are starting to feel like mandatory additions to UFC events in 2025. David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira couldn’t be any more of a perfect pairing for Martinez to flourish.

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Mexico’s Martinez has made his name in Combate Global by delivering beatdowns every step of the way until he earned his UFC contract through Contender Series in 2024. For his UFC debut, he gets a homecoming matchup against Oliveira, who is riding a two-fight losing streak after a two-year layoff. His losses? A unanimous decision against the veteran Tony Gravely, followed by a healthy serving of Daniel Marcos’ knees.

Martinez must protect his neck against Oliveira because the Brazilian has been great at finding his submissions via guillotine. Besides that, his hopes are slim, and he’ll get styled on in enemy territory.

Pick: Martinez

125 pounds: Ronaldo Rodriguez (-155) vs. Kevin Borjas (+130)

Mexico’s “Lazy Boy” Ronaldo Rodriguez is another ultra-talented young prospect getting a nice matchup here on home soil. The 25-year-old kicked off his UFC run impressively last year, defeating Denys Bondar via second-round rear-naked choke before logging a unanimous decision over the savvy veteran Ode Osbourne.

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Borjas, 27, is still a decent prospect in his own right. His matchups thus far in UFC have been slightly more stifling, starting with the ever-talented Joshua Van and Alessandro Costa, who beat him. Unfortunately for him, he’s been somewhat exposed for ground deficiencies thus far, which will be problematic against a menace like “Lazy Boy.”

Pick: Rodriguez

Preliminary notes

As I said off the top, this UFC Mexico City lineup features many likable, chaotic matchups, and the prelims host most of them.

With her four victories, Lupita Godinez was fast-tracking herself toward the strawweight top 5 in 2023. Unfortunately for her, that trajectory was unsustainable once she arrived, falling short to mainstays Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern. Julia Polastri is about as significant a step down from those opponents as you could make. It’s a clear rebound opportunity, which puts extra pressure on Godinez in her home country.

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Regarding deliverers of chaos, I’m excited to see Edgar Chairez and Rafa Garcia get to work.

Quick picks:

Edgar Chairez (-275) def. C.J. Vergara (+220)

Ateba Abega Gautier (-425) def. Jose Daniel Medina (+325)

Christian Rodriguez (-165) def. Melquizael Costa (+140)

Lupita “Loopy” Godinez (-275) def. Julia Polastri (+220)

Rafa Garcia (-475) def. Vinc Pichel (+350)

Jamall Emmers (-350) def. Gabriel Miranda (+275)

Austin Hubbard (+135) def. MarQuel Mederos (-165)