Not all UFC Fight Nights are created equally. After a stellar return to Seattle last week, UFC stops back in the APEX Facility for UFC Vegas 103.
It’s cards like these where a sales pitch probably won’t even entice the most hardcore MMA fan. UFC Vegas 103 is legitimately the most glorified regional event ever. That has been said about many of these shows by now, but unfortunately, it rings true every time.
With that said, the main event is compelling, as Manel Kape finally aims to secure an ever-elusive UFC flyweight title shot against the surging Asu Almabayev. That’s about it, though. Let’s make our weekly picks, shall we?
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
125 pounds: Manel Kape (-220) vs. Asu Almabayev (+180)
After a lackluster blow-off unanimous decision loss to rival Muhammad Mokaev last July, Kape did “the thing.” What’s “the thing,” you ask? Well, “the thing” is different for every fighter. For Kape, it’s performing like a Matrix-esque world champion against an opponent who had no business being in the cage with him.
Kape put on a show, styling on Bruno Silva before a third-round TKO win. Almabayev will receive a similar step-up to Silva’s with the matchup. However, he’s more well-equipped for it and proven as displayed throughout his 17-fight winning streak (4-0 in UFC, 21-2 overall).
The additional two rounds that a main event provides add an element of intrigue to the bout. Kape is the superior striker, utilizing his movement and combinations beautifully when he’s on, as mentioned off the top. Almabayez will look to make the fight ugly and outwrestle Kape en route to a decision or submission — the latter of which has only happened twice.
There’s more overall danger in Kape’s game, especially on the feet. That’s critical in a matchup like this, where he’s at no clear disadvantage. If there is one, it’s in the wrestling department. Even then, he should be able to hang and find success.
Almabayev can be a mainstay around the division’s top, but all paths appear more open than ever for Kape to get his first UFC title shot.
Pick: Kape
185 pounds: Cody Brundage (+100) vs. Julian Marquez (-120)
Does the UFC hate Cody Brundage? Because he’s not getting done any favors in public perception with a co-main event slot on any card after a loss to Bo Nickal on the UFC 300 main card. (Yes, that’s an actual sentence.)
Brundage vs. Julian Marquez is much more of a coin flip than you’d think. It’s been a rough go for Marquez, losing his last three all by knockout. Therefore, he desperately needs this win to keep his roster spot.
Marquez has just become too much of a brawler and his chin has deteriorated because of it. Brundage isn’t known for being some wildly talented knockout artist, but he doesn’t need to be to hurt Marquez in a wild exchange. Even if Brundage doesn’t put Marques away, hurting him will make the inevitable takedown attempt all the easier, leading to a finish on the ground.
I like Brundage in this one as long as he avoids any big shots from “The Cuban Missile Crisis.”
Pick: Brundage
155 pounds: Nasrat Haqparast (+200) vs. Esteban Ribovics (-250)
So, Esteban Ribovics rules. After winning Uncrowned’s 2024 Fight of the Year, you won’t catch me missing any fight involving the Argentinian.
The odds on this matchup are a surprise, considering Nasrat Haqparast has been on a tear of his own with four straight wins over some notable veteran names like Jared Gordon and John Makdessi. It just goes to show the reasonable hype accrued by Ribovics for his latest performances.
As much damage as Ribovics dealt and delivered in his Daniel Zellhuber classic, Haqparast has more tread on the tires despite being only one year older than Ribovics, at 29. I forget the guy is still that young after eight years in the promotion.
This matchup should be an absolute banger on the feet and closer than the odds indicate. Haqparast has been stifled by solid clinch work or grappling threats in the past. Ribovics will be wise to that, mixing in takedowns or tie-ups on the cage when applicable. That’s unless he gets drawn into another war like his last fight, which saw zero attempts to take the action to the mat, and we love him for that.
Pick: Ribovics
145 pounds: Hyder Amil (+165) vs. William Gomis (-200)
Hyder Amil vs. William Gomis should be another striker’s delight.
Both are riding high on great winning streaks, with Amil undefeated in his 10-fight career. Gomis has just been the cleaner and more technical between the two, slicing and dicing his way to victories in all four Octagon appearances.
Gomis’ takedown defense — or lack thereof — has been why he nearly lost fights against Joanderson Brito and Francis Marshall. Look for Amil to exploit that, but ultimately find himself a step behind while he gets picked apart by the rangy Frenchman.
Pick: Gomis
170 pounds: Danny Barlow (-300) vs. Sam Patterson (+240)
Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson are big welterweights, standing at 6-foot-2 and 6-foot-3, respectively.
In his last time out, Patterson was impressive, submitting Kiefer Crosbie with a first-round arm triangle choke. He continued to show he’s a finisher through and through, only fighting to a decision twice in 14 fights (12-2-1).
Barlow, 29, has been tested in his pair of UFC bouts thus far, scraping by Nikolay Veretnikov and TKOing Josh Quinlan late. Ultimately, Barlow has more polished striking than his adversary Patterson, but the Brit’s tenacious ground game and submission seeking will be too much.
A finish is a bold pick. Regardless, I’ll take the upset on this one.
Pick: Patterson
Preliminary notes
Andrea Lee losing five straight and maintaining a roster spot is baffling, to say the least. Not that I want to see anyone jobless, of course. The UFC is typically just so trigger happy to remove fighters like her as the snowball starts to avalanche. It’s the wrong type of history to make.
Montana De La Rosa has no business being the underdog against Luana Carolina. Stylistically, that should be as surefire a victory as it gets. Wrestle, wrestle, wrestle and wrestle some more, “MDLR.”
Circling back to the flyweight division, Charles Johnson still finds himself buried on APEX event prelims despite an absurd resurgence in 2024, winning four in a row. Talk about wicked disrespect — that I will pile onto as I pick against him.
Quick picks:
Mario Pinto (-600) def. Austen Lane (+425)
Chepe Mariscal (-450) def. Ricardo Ramos (+350)
Douglas Silva de Andrade (+260) def. John Castaneda (-325)
JJ Aldrich (-210) def. Andrea Lee (+170)
Danny Silva (-220) def. Lucas Almeida (+180)
Montana De La Rosa (+105) def. Luana Carolina (-125)
Ramazan Temirov (+110) def. Charles Johnson (-135)
