Comerica Wealth Management CIO John Lynch on the expected 2024 job revisions, his expectations for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, where to allocate capital, and Target earnings.
Government statistics have tended to paint a more upbeat picture of the economy than how real Americans on Main Street believe that things are going. For example, more than half of Americans say they think the country is in a recession. We aren’t — officially — but it’s clear millions of Americans aren’t buying the rosy scenario.
One of the few areas that President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been able to crow about since they took office has been employment. Even as inflation has soared with prices up 20 percent and real incomes down by $2,100 per family on their watch, hiring has been strong and in unemployment has remained fairly low.
‘Kudlow’ panelists Steve Moore and Scott Bessent compare the economic policies of former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
But now we learn that over the last year employment was nearly 30% lower than originally announced. Oops.
As Fox Business reported, “the U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of the following year.”
US ECONOMY CREATED 818,000 FEWER JOBS THAN PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
That 818,000 downward revision is a lot more than a rounding error. Three percent is a rounding error. Thirty percent means we’ve been fed a distorted view of the economy.
Former Home Depot CEO and Chairman Bob Nardelli discusses U.S. jobs numbers, arguing the job market is ‘tight.’
I am NOT accusing the Bureau of Labor Statistics of wrongdoing. They are professionals. But the model is flawed. For at least nine of the last 10 months, they’ve revised downward their initial headline job estimates.
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What is equally troubling is that the Labor Department overestimated the already-meager job numbers for the private sector and slightly overestimated government hiring. This only reinforces a point I’ve been making for many months on these pages.
Jobs are being created in all the wrong places.
Stephen Moore is a co-founder of Unleash Prosperity and an economic adviser to the Trump campaign.
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