Experts in Washington are split on their perspectives of the durability of the recently elevated U.S.-South Korea-Japan security cooperation in the event of former President Donald Trump winning the November U.S. presidential election, given his critical stance toward U.S. alliances in the past.
Last month, the U.S., South Korea and Japan signed a memorandum of cooperation on the Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework (TSCF), which is aimed at institutionalizing the countries’ security partnership against threats from China and North Korea.
While not legally binding, the memorandum is expected to facilitate trilateral security cooperation regardless of any leadership changes in their respective countries.
The agreement calls for regular high-level talks, joint exercises and other exchanges among the three nations.
Some in Washington, however, question whether the United States, South Korea and Japan would successfully institutionalize the enhanced security cooperation in a second Trump presidency.
“Certainly, the greatest and near-term concern is if President Trump is reelected, whether he would undo some of the progress of recent years,” Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation, told VOA Korean by telephone Wednesday.
Klingner added that the three governments hoped that signing the memorandum would regularize and operationalize the ongoing security improvements among the three nations.
The Biden administration says stronger trilateral cooperation is an integral part of its Indo-Pacific strategy.
The administration also has been touting the August 2023 summit at Camp David with the U.S., South Korea and Japan as a historic meeting, saying the three leaders “inaugurated a new era of trilateral partnership” there.
In a Washington Post opinion piece published this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that the U.S. security partnership in the Indo-Pacific region is working more effectively than before, citing the cooperation among the United States, South Korea and Japan as an example.
“President [Joe] Biden brought together Japan and South Korea — two countries with a difficult history — to join the United States in the Camp David Trilateral Summit, spurring unprecedented defense and economic cooperation among our countries,” they wrote.
Uncertainty looms
It is uncertain how the U.S. trilateral partnership with South Korea and Japan would shape up if Trump returns to power, as the former president has not publicly articulated a stance on the trilateral cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.
Trump has put strong emphasis on U.S. allies paying their “fair share” of defense costs.
During his presidency, Trump demanded that South Korea and Japan pay more for the cost of the U.S. military presence in their countries. He warned the U.S. could withdraw its troops unless the demands were met.
Michael O’Hanlon, director of foreign policy research at the Brookings Institution in Washington, told VOA Korean via email Wednesday that it would be hard to predict whether the TSCF would survive a possible Trump second term.
“Most things are personalized with him, or they relate to his instincts and impressions based on previous business dealings,” he said.
“Both the leaders [of South Korea and Japan] he dealt with when president are now gone. So, it’s a wild card or blank slate.”
However, some disagree.
Richard Armitage, who served as deputy secretary of state during the George W. Bush administration, told VOA Korean by telephone Thursday that Trump would likely allow the institutionalization of the TSCF, considering the strong support from both sides of the aisle.
“I find the majority [of] members on Capitol Hill are very positive to it,” Armitage said.
“I do notice that some of the people who are rumored to be coming in, should Mr. Trump win, are actually quite international in their outlook,” he added, declining to say who those people are.
Alliance commitment
Frederick Fleitz, who served as chief of staff of the National Security Council in the Trump White House, told VOA Korean by phone Wednesday that he would expect the agreement on the security framework among the U.S. and the two U.S. allies in Asia to be upheld in a second Trump administration.
“It’s going to remain,” Fleitz said. “He [Trump] is a strong supporter of alliances, particularly our alliance in the Asian Pacific.”
Fleitz added that the stronger security ties among the three countries is “a significant achievement that’s going to continue.”
Evans Revere, who served as acting assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific affairs, told VOA Korean via email that China’s rise to become the greatest threat in the Indo-Pacific theater is a fact not to be ignored by any of the three countries.
“There is every reason to believe the three countries can effectively institutionalize trilateral security cooperation, even if there is a change of administration in one or more of the three capitals,” Revere said. “There is a growing perception in all three countries of the threats and challenges they share in common. China’s attempts at political, military and economic intimidation are becoming more frequent.”
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris, who is running to become the successor to Biden, is widely predicted to continue on the path Biden forged.
“Harris does not have a clearly established record on U.S.-South Korea-Japan security cooperation, but I expect that she will follow the policies of the Biden administration on this issue,” Gary Samore, former White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction during the Obama administration, told VOA Korean via email.
Blinken, Austin and Sullivan highlighted in the Post opinion piece that the transformed approach toward the Indo-Pacific region is “one of the most important and least-told stories of the foreign policy strategy advanced by President Biden and Vice President Harris.”
Joeun Lee contributed to this report.
