The Biden administration is emphasizing the nearness of a Gaza cease-fire amid fears that an expected attack by Iran and its proxies on Israel will push the Middle East into a wider war.
U.S. officials have echoed President Joe Biden’s message Tuesday to leaders of key mediators Qatar that talks “have now reached a final stage” and must be brought “to closure as soon as possible.”
“We really do think we are in the final stage of agreement on a framework,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters Wednesday.
Analysts say the administration’s optimism stands in contrast to increased tensions in the region, where Iran has vowed to retaliate for last week’s killing of Ismail Haniyeh. The Hamas leader’s assassination in Tehran is widely assumed to have been carried out by Israel.
“We’re on the cusp of a major regional war,” warned Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator for the Middle East who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Israel also faces retaliation from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon for its airstrike in the suburbs of Beirut last week. The attack killed Fuad Shukr, a commander of the Iranian-backed group.
“Hezbollah is about to unload — probably in the wee hours of today, tomorrow or the next day — a serious effort to inflict real pain on the Israelis,” Miller told VOA.
Other Iran-backed militias have launched attacks on U.S. military positions in Iraq and Syria in recent weeks, U.S. officials said, ending months of relative calm.
Deal or no deal
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes the assassinations will pressure Hamas to agree to favorable terms for a cease-fire deal, even if it brings the region to the brink, said Mairav Zonszein, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst on Israel.
Biden has publicly and privately rebuked Netanyahu, saying Haniyeh’s killing and Israel’s new demands at the negotiating table were not conducive to reaching a truce.
Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated Biden’s message that all parties “must stop taking escalatory actions and find reasons to come to an agreement, not to look for reasons to delay or say no to the agreement.”
Despite U.S. pressure on Israel, “Netanyahu’s entire defense establishment has said they don’t think he wants the deal that is on the table,” Zonszein told VOA.
U.S. officials have engaged in intense diplomacy with allies and partners, in addition to speaking directly to Iran and to Israel, Blinken said.
Biden also spoke with King Abdullah II of Jordan on Monday to discuss de-escalation efforts and deployed additional U.S. military assets to the region to moderate Tehran’s response.
“The F-22A Raptors jetting to the Middle East are high-tech messenger pigeons carrying a one-word note: ‘Don’t,'” said Laura Blumenfeld, a senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
New Hamas leader
As for Hamas, by naming Yahya Sinwar as Haniyeh’s successor, the militant group may be hardening its position.
The appointment of the mastermind of the October 7 attack on Israel solidifies the group’s move toward strengthening relations with Iran over other benefactors, said Devorah Margolin, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
It also indicates an “entrenchment towards its original goal: violent struggle against Israel by any means necessary,” she told VOA.
White House national security communications adviser John Kirby downplayed concerns that Sinwar’s ascension would further complicate cease-fire talks.
“He has always been the chief decision-maker when it comes to negotiations over the course of these now nine months,” Kirby told VOA during a briefing with reporters Wednesday. “And as the chief decision-maker, he needs to decide now to take this deal.”
Reality, or wishful thinking?
With the Biden administration for months saying that cease-fire negotiations are in the final stages, outside observers are finding it difficult to judge whether the assessment is realistic or wishful thinking, said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
Trying to get the world to believe a deal is at hand “could be the foreign policy equivalent of a Jedi mind trick,” Katulis told VOA, referring to the ability of some “Star Wars” movie characters to influence behavior through mental manipulation.
It could also be strategic messaging to incentivize parties, particularly Iran, to act with restraint.
“The U.S. administration is saying, ‘We are in the endgame, and if you drop the ball, we will hold you responsible in the blame game,'” John Hopkins’ Blumenfeld told VOA.
With U.S. and regional pressure for a cease-fire, overwhelming demand from the Israeli public for a deal to return the hostages, and the Israeli Knesset on a three-month recess, Netanyahu could create political room to maneuver while keeping his coalition intact and make a breakthrough.
“It could go either way, in the coming days — cease-fire or regional wildfire,” said Blumenfeld.
Nike Ching and Jeff Seldin contributed to this report.
