I believe in second chances. I believe in redemption stories.
Week 4 has offered plenty of those things.
Consider the top of the quarterback board after the early window ended Sunday. Justin Fields — discarded by the Bears, and the presumed backup in Pittsburgh — had a position-best 31.98 fantasy points. Baker Mayfield stood as the QB3 with 28.88 points — the same Mayfield who was shuttled out of Cleveland, Carolina and Los Angeles. Sam Darnold, the Jets and Panthers castoff, was added to Minnesota as a placeholder and presumed backup. He threw three touchdowns at Green Bay and has 11 on the year, multiples in every start.
Fields gets the top billing after 312 passing yards and 55 rushing yards in a 27-24 loss at Indianapolis. He accounted for three touchdowns, two by land and one by air. Fields needed to carry the offense because Najee Harris was shockingly ineffective running (13 carries, 19 yards) against a suspect rushing defense.
Fields now has three rushing scores in two weeks, and he’s clicking with top receiver George Pickens (7-113-0, 11 targets, one fumble lost). Every fantasy manager knows how valuable rushing quarterbacks are, and Fields has gotten better at avoiding negative plays.
Projecting Fields going forward is not an easy assignment. The Steelers surely weren’t going to bench him while the team was undefeated, but a loss at least puts some doubt in everyone’s mind. That said, if I ran the club, I’d stick with Fields and see what’s what — he is 10 years younger than Russell Wilson. And I’m not afraid of an ordinary Dallas defense that calls in Week 5.
Mayfield’s season has been up and down, the expected smash against Washington in Week 1 followed by disappointing returns against Detroit and Denver. But he was on point in a 33-16 rout of the Eagles, throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns, with a third on the ground. Mayfield didn’t turn the ball over and only took two sacks, in a game that resembled Tampa Bay’s easy win over Philadelphia in last season’s playoffs.
Mayfield has plenty of help around him. Mike Evans was at the front of the line (8-94-1, 14 targets) and Chris Godwin was solid (6-69-0), though he didn’t manage a touchdown. Cade Otton’s 6-52-0 line is playable for tight ends in 2024.
Mayfield looks ready to rip as the Buccaneers travel to Atlanta and New Orleans the next two weeks.
Darnold’s day could have been much bigger but the game situation worked against him. The Vikings opened up a three-touchdown lead at Green Bay in the first half, which encouraged second-half conservatism and capped Darnold at 28 pass attempts. Packers QB Jordan Love was a master in garbage time, directing three fourth-quarter scoring drives and making the game cosmetically close, ultimately a 31-29 victory for Minnesota. Love finished with 379 yards on 54 attempts, four touchdowns, three interceptions, a whirlwind of a day. Darnold easily crushed him on the efficiency stats (9.8 YPA to 7.2, 123.4 rating to 83.0).
Darnold’s biggest challenge is probably coming next week, when the Vikings and Jets play a London game on Sunday morning. New York obviously has a nasty defense, and Darnold’s three seasons in New York were not pretty. The schedule looks friendly after that, and it helps that Jordan Addison (two scores, including one running) returned Week 4; T.J. Hockenson will eventually come back, too. Throw in Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones and this offense is overflowing with playmakers. Darnold holds Circle of Trust privileges on my clipboard.
Sorting through other Week 4 Booms and Busts
Nico Collins keeps torching opposing secondaries 🔥
Collins was a target hog and an efficiency darling (12-151-1, 15 targets) as the Texans held off upset-minded Jacksonville. Even when Tank Dell returns, Collins deserves to have a bloated target share. His lowest receiving yardage total through four games is 86.
D’Andre Swift finally breaks out … on fantasy benches 😱
Swift was only started in 29% of Yahoo leagues, which was prudent given his awful three-game start. But Swift got his groove back against the Rams, with 23 touches, 165 total yards and a touchdown. Yes, the first Chicago rushing score did go to Roschon Johnson, but otherwise, Johnson was not a factor (7-26-1 rushing, nothing in the passing game).
Jayden Reed’s fantasy stock on the rise with Love back 🚀
If Love can stay healthy, Reed looks headed to the moon. Reed missed just one of his targets, good for a 7-139-1 romp through the Minnesota secondary. The upcoming schedule is a daisy, with the Rams and Cardinals calling next.
Najee Harris’ slow start continues 🐢
It’s a good thing Harris picked up three catches for 54 yards, because he went nowhere on the ground against the Colts — on a day when Jaylen Warren didn’t play and Cordarrelle Patterson left early with an ankle injury. And with Fields controlling the offense, Harris went without a touchdown for the fourth straight game.
Bears’ passing game appears to be a no-fly zone 🛑
While Swift was pacing the Chicago offense, the Bears did little through the air. Caleb Williams was asked to throw just 23 passes, and while he was error-free with his play, his top downfield target was Cole Kmet (3-34-0). DJ Moore did sneak some touchdown deodorant, but the Chicago receiving room collected just seven catches for 51 yards. With a good defense and an inexperienced young quarterback, the Chicago passing game looks like a temporary headache to avoid.
Quick Hitters
• It’s so strange to watch the Chiefs chugging along like a mediocre offense; it’s depressing to look at Patrick Mahomes game logs these days. But with the unfortunate injury to Rashee Rice — it sure sounds like a season-ender — Travis Kelce is back in play. Kelce looked like his old self in Los Angeles, collecting a 7-89-0 line. That’s an enormous post for any tight end in 2024. Kansas City can’t soft-pedal Kelce now, the receiver room is too barren.
• There are no consoling words for Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts managers. Andrews and Pitts were the bagel twins in Week 4 — Andrews dropped his only target while Pitts was empty on three looks. It’s two straight zeroes for Andrews, while Pitts is sitting on 105 yards for the season. The Baltimore and Atlanta offenses are rarely pass-heavy, too.
• Kareem Hunt emerged in the foggy Kansas City backfield, after Carson Steele was put in fumble jail. Samaje Perine stole one goal-line carry but otherwise this offense leaned into the veteran Hunt. He didn’t look special over 17 opportunities (14-69 rushing, 2-16 receiving), but volume sells and he punched the game-deciding touchdown. The Saints call next, then a bye.
• Breece Hall (10-4 rushing, 2-14 receiving) was stuck in mud for three hours, and although the Broncos defense had something to do with that, the Jets won’t promise Hall the goal-line work going forward. Don’t look back, Breece, Braelon Allen might be gaining on you.
• The slow Garrett Wilson liftoff has several parents — Aaron Rodgers, Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson himself. The book on Denver CB Patrick Surtain is that he travels on the perimeter, but usually doesn’t trail a key receiver into the slot (h/t, Mike Clay). The Jets need to do a better job unleashing their primary target. New York has scored a meager 19, 24, 24 and 9 points through four games, despite facing just one opponent likely to make the playoffs. This isn’t close to good enough.
• The Carolina offense is pretty simple — it’s bankable with Andy Dalton, and it’s a total flush if and when Bryce Young returns. Diontae Johnson finally looks like a star again, Chuba Hubbard is an underrated back, even rookie Xavier Legette is a usable player, though he made a couple of rookie mistakes Sunday. Hopefully the Panthers can stay on the periphery of the NFC South race, to give them an excuse to keep playing Dalton. Young starting would be like throwing a seven at the craps table — all the chips go down the drain.
• Shane Steichen called an RPO for Anthony Richardson one snap after the sophomore QB left the game with a minor injury. That’s coaching malpractice. The irony for the Indianapolis passing game is that the receivers will be theoretically more consistent with journeyman Joe Flacco. Although Michael Pittman’s big day did start with two Richardson downfield completions, we can start him more confidently in the Flacco games.
• Brian Thomas Jr. is always open. Unfortunately, Trevor Lawrence is always his quarterback. Tanks Bigsby looks markedly improved and is a threat to Travis Etienne. Maybe Doug Pederson is out of fresh ideas.
• Taysom Hill looked dominant on two rushing touchdowns before injuring his ribs. After that, the Saints went back to the Alvin Kamara show (26 touches), using him up as if Kamara planned a Halloween retirement. They need to find a second pitch in this running game. Kamara’s career high is 240 carries and he’s missed time in six straight seasons. Through four games, he’s on pace for 340 carries.
• Kyle Murray’s fantasy points are always on their way, but they seldom arrive. He was QB1 in the week 1 romp over the Rams, but otherwise it’s been QB15, QB17 and QB21. At the moment, he’s one of the most overrated players in fantasy football.
• Jalen Hurts was a mess for three hours, but we have to be fair, obviously A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith weren’t available. I suspect most teams don’t want a Week 5 bye — too early — but it’s good timing for the stumbling Eagles. We’ll reevaluate this group when they return in two weeks.
• Courtland Sutton has played this music before — the Denver passing game looks broken, but for two straight weeks he’s produced anyway. Things got better for the 2023 Broncos as the season went along. Maybe Sutton’s ceiling is modest, but he should have a WR3 floor for most of the year. He’s the only receiver Sean Payton probably trusts right now.
• Speaking of design schemers, Sean McVay seems to have a thing going with Tutu Atwell — 8-175-0 the last two weeks. The target volume will probably be modest and when shot plays don’t click, WR3 spec plays wash out. But if you have to bet on one of the LAR replacement wideouts, this is the guy. Green Bay’s secondary waits next week, a group you can get behind.
• Nobody expected Jauan Jennings to go ballistic in back-to-back weeks, but a 3-88-0 line even with George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk returning was a nifty validation of the Jennings skill set. I’m not going to cut him in any league; there’s too much upside here, and an injury to any of three different teammates could give Jennings a value spike.
