Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
Happy Monday, and congrats to all the Eagles fans out there. Three weeks into Donald Trump’s second term, we’re starting to get the first raft of polling that shows what the American public makes of it all so far. Ben Kamisar breaks down the most notable data points. Plus, a judge accuses the administration of defying a court order as the legal battles over Trump’s agenda ramp up.
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— Adam Wollner
What the polls can tell us about the early days of Trump’s second term
By Ben Kamisar
Polling the early weeks of a new administration can be difficult for a whole host of reasons. The short version: Things are moving fast, and voters may take their time processing the changes since the election.
But a few things stand out from the early polls on President Donald Trump’s second term. Most show his standing slightly improved from when he first entered office in 2017, and there is broad popular agreement among the public with some of his major proposals.
Still, there are real warning signs about the mandate Trump is claiming amid a deeply divided electorate, the surveys show, as well as the risk of losing sight of one of the key issues that got him back to the White House: frustration with rising prices.
The polling pros for Trump: Trump’s approval rating right now is in the high 40s and low 50s in different polls, overall a few ticks higher than it was in early 2017. (We saw a similar pattern in the polling released right before and just as Trump took office.)
Unsurprisingly, these numbers are powered primarily by overwhelming partisan differences and a deep split among independent voters. But a recent Pew Research Center study shows Republicans more confident with Trump than they were in 2017 on issues like his mental fitness and his ability to act ethically and pick good advisers.
Polling broadly shows support for some of Trump’s major priorities. Majorities across multiple polls say they back widespread deportations (59% in a recent CBS News/YouGov poll). And pre-inauguration polling found support for prioritizing domestic problems over international ones and for banning transgender women from playing women’s sports.
The polling cons for Trump: But where Trump has pushed his issue agenda toward his party’s right flank, he loses support.
His decision to pardon those who were convicted of violent crimes related to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol is clearly unpopular, as polls from Pew and The Economist/YouGov show. YouGov polling with both CBS and The Economist found Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada are unpopular, too, and that under one-quarter of those polled want billionaire Elon Musk to have a lot of influence on the Trump administration.
And while Trump told “Meet the Press” in December, “I won on the border and I won on groceries,” 66% of Americans said in the CBS News/YouGov poll that the administration isn’t focusing enough on “lowering the prices of goods and services,” despite the economy topping the list of most urgent issues in a recent Quinnipiac University poll. And 51% of Americans in the CBS News/YouGov poll say Trump’s policies will make grocery prices increase, while only 28% think they’ll push prices down.
Bottom line: It’s all a reminder that despite Trump claiming a sweeping mandate after an election that put Republicans in full control of Washington, we’re still living in the same divided country we were before Election Day. When Pew asked Americans whether Trump would make government better or worse, 41% said better, 42% said worse — and a small, decisive middle portion wasn’t sure which way to lean.
Judge accuses Trump administration of defying a court order
The legal battle over President Donald Trump’s agenda is continuing to ramp up: Chloe Atkins, Fallon Gallagher and Dareh Gregorian report that a federal judge in Rhode Island found the administration violated his order halting a sweeping federal funding freeze and ordered the government to “immediately restore frozen funding.”
As Ken Dilanian notes, it’s the first time since Trump’s second inauguration that a federal judge has accused his administration of defying a court order.
U.S. District Judge John J. McConnell handed down the order after the plaintiffs in the case, a coalition of 22 states, said the government had not restored funding in several programs despite his Jan. 31 order temporarily halting the wide-ranging Office of Management and Budget directive that had caused chaos and confusion across the country.
Justice Department lawyers argued in a court filing that they didn’t believe the order covered some of the frozen funding, and that some of the funding at issue is under review to make sure it’s “appropriate.”
“The Defendants now plea that they are just trying to root out fraud. But the freezes in effect now were a result of the broad categorical order, not a specific finding of possible fraud,” McConnell wrote. “The broad categorical and sweeping freeze of federal funds is, as the Court found, likely unconstitutional and has caused and continues to cause irreparable harm to a vast portion of this country.”
Uncharted waters: The order comes after Vice President JD Vance suggested over the weekend that judges don’t have jurisdiction over Trump’s “legitimate power.” That led some legal experts to warn the United States could be headed toward a “constitutional crisis” or a “breakdown of the system,” Alexandra Marquez reports.
More legal fights: A federal judge in Boston continued his pause of the Trump administration’s unprecedented plan to get millions of federal workers to resign.
Attorneys general from 22 states filed a lawsuit against the administration’s decision to slash research funding by limiting how it pays out universities and research institutes for “indirect costs.”
And a union filed two lawsuits against Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, challenging his role as acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and asking a judge to block the Department of Government Efficiency’s access to employee information.
What else to know from the Trump presidency today
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Trump said he would announce a 25% blanket tariff on steel and aluminum imports on Monday, as well as reciprocal tariffs later in the week.
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Trump said in a Fox News interview that Palestinians wouldn’t be permitted to return to the Gaza Strip as part of his plan for the U.S. to take ownership of the territory.
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Trump is expected to pardon former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who had served eight years in prison on charges stemming from his effort to sell Barack Obama’s former Senate seat. Trump commuted Blagojevich’s 14-year sentence in 2020.
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The Kremlin said U.S.-Russia relations were on the brink of collapse and refused to confirm whether Russian President Vladimir Putin had spoken with Trump.
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Trump said he has directed the Treasury Department to stop minting new pennies, calling the cost of producing the one-cent coins “wasteful.”
🗞️ Today’s other top stories
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🌪️ Disoriented Dems: Democrats are struggling to keep up with the Trump’s dizzying pace, leaving them unsure of how to fight back. Read more →
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🗣️ In the states: Some Democratic governors are already laying out how they plan to take on the administration’s agenda in their “State of the State” addresses, though several avoided calling out Trump by name. Read more →
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✏️ Back to school: Republicans are looking to retool their “parents’ rights” playbook in Virginia’s gubernatorial race this year, hoping to again leverage an issue that fueled GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s victory four years ago. Read more →
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🏈 DeWine’s draft pick: Ohio GOP Gov. Mike DeWine has tapped Jim Tressel, a former Ohio State University football coach, to be the state’s next lieutenant governor. Read more →
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📺 ICYMI: Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz told “Meet the Press” that he does not believe Trump has plans to invade Canada, while Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., said that Republicans “should not count on” Democratic votes to avert a government shutdown next month.
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Bridget Bowman.
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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
